Yeah, I was gonna say.
Would anyone like to guess casualties? They'll be very high for both sides...
WI: Korean War at 1979
- Thread starter zeppelinair
- Start date
Yeah, I was gonna say.
Would anyone like to guess casualties? They'll be very high for both sides...
US army would still have been in dissarray from Vietnam. Plus there could be a lot of anti war demonstrations over anorther war in Asia plus fears of a wider war involving the Soviet Union and this escalating into WW3
Would "round-the-clock bombings" by B-52s based around Asia be possible in this scenario? The general who remade the OPLAN in 1974 did not specify how 24-hour bombings would be possible, and Stratofortress were retiring during this time..
That is a good question, and here is a (extremely) short analysis on ROK troop strength for Kissinger on August 18, 1976, right after the Panmunjom tree-cutting incident:
ThePest179
Banned
Casulaties? A Million, at least. Alot will comefrom the bombardment of Seoul, even more from the air offensive against the North. Then we have the possibility of chemical and biological weapons tossed in that could spike the casualties even higher. The NKs might take Seoul, until the US comes in force. That is a big might though.
Wasn't North Korea generally considered to be better off than South Korea during the 70s?
I can't speak for 1979, but...I'm of the opinion that the modern PRC basically looks at NK as a royal pain in the ass.
The damning things Chinese diplomats were saying in the Wikileaks cables confirmed this, iirc they literally compared the state to a spoiled brat. If the US was stupid enough to be the aggressor and invade that'd be one thing, but vice versa? Ha, I'm sure the PRC has contingencies to replace the Kims with some "no drama" puppet if they ever become too big a headache. They were probably looking very closely at these plans last year. (the fact that the was apparently a messy assassination attempt on Kim Jong Un was a bad sign - a wild shootout in Pyongyang no less!
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South Korea's economy or North Korea's economy? Yeah, China ain't stupid lol. Cash Rules Everything Around Me.
IMHO any 2nd Korean War that doesn't turn Seoul into a firestorm is ASB. What, 2 miles from the DMZ? Seoul is like one of those weird cities that sits at the foot of a "dormant" volcano and never worries about it.
I can't speak for 1979, but...I'm of the opinion that the modern PRC basically looks at NK as a royal pain in the ass.
The damning things Chinese diplomats were saying in the Wikileaks cables confirmed this, iirc they literally compared the state to a spoiled brat. If the US was stupid enough to be the aggressor and invade that'd be one thing, but vice versa? Ha, I'm sure the PRC has contingencies to replace the Kims with some "no drama" puppet if they ever become too big a headache. They were probably looking very closely at these plans last year. (the fact that the was apparently a messy assassination attempt on Kim Jong Un was a bad sign - a wild shootout in Pyongyang no less!
)South Korea's economy or North Korea's economy? Yeah, China ain't stupid lol. Cash Rules Everything Around Me.
IMHO any 2nd Korean War that doesn't turn Seoul into a firestorm is ASB. What, 2 miles from the DMZ? Seoul is like one of those weird cities that sits at the foot of a "dormant" volcano and never worries about it.
1. The artillery, although threatened for use against Seoul, is most likely stationed for use against ground troops along the border(it makes sense to stop the army coming towards you than bomb somewhere that wouldn't have direct effect to your victory.)
2. It's only in the mid-80s that South Korea notices North Korean capabilities of chemical and biological weapons. Before that, we can expect their technology to be experiment-level. SK also has basic deterrence methods for chemical weapons, such as mustard gas.
3. Due to a change in military planning from 1974, the US-SK forces only withdraw 5 miles south before making a counterattack. This saves Seoul, and is possible with extensive air raids- although the details are not known.
Other than that, a question: you mentioned 1 million as the minimal number. Is this inclusive of both sides or only NK/ROK+US? Does this number include civilians or only military?
No, that changed during the 70s. South Korea was already richer than North Korea for a long time. That's what happens when you make your nation into a secluded fortress-state.
Is that going to be the same attitude in 1979 as it is right now? China only has this attitude right now because it has trade with everybody and everybody hates NK.
Around 35 miles actually, and thank you very much for calling Seoul a "weird city".
ThePest179
Banned
1 million is the minmal level of casualties factoring in all sides, military and civilian dead, total in the conflict. Also thanks for the links to NK's chem-bio weapons, didn't know that before.
Your welcome.
Would the Soviets be willing to commit to another front, this one directly against the US, while they're fighting in Afghanistan?
No, they would not accept another Asian war in the 1970s. But, if it's a quick win with clearly divided sides (none of this Viet Cong thing Vietnam had) it could go a ways to erasing the humiliation of Vietnam like how the Gulf War did.
At the time, I would have thought North Korea would hold all the cards until US reinforcments arrive.
When the troops from the US arrive, it will become more even. the USAF will make life in North KOrea very difficult, hitting factories etc. I think the NOrth Koreans would probably capture Seoul before US troops arrive. It is only 30 miles from the DMZ, and if NK had the element of surprise it could roll their pretty quickly.
After the reinforcments arrive, however, the tables turn. the US/ROK forces probably roll all the way to the Yalu River, unless China intervenes.
When the troops from the US arrive, it will become more even. the USAF will make life in North KOrea very difficult, hitting factories etc. I think the NOrth Koreans would probably capture Seoul before US troops arrive. It is only 30 miles from the DMZ, and if NK had the element of surprise it could roll their pretty quickly.
After the reinforcments arrive, however, the tables turn. the US/ROK forces probably roll all the way to the Yalu River, unless China intervenes.
As per the OP, it seems there also were plans to stop North Korea around 5 miles south of the DMZ. Since this is the latest plan, this would be the one followed- although I couldn't grasp what a "violent, 9-day war" would look like.
What would be the Soviet reaction? Would they want to open another theatre in North Korea with Afghanistan?
If the NKs attack without consulting the Soviets, or even informing them ahead of time, Brezhnev probably would've told the NKs to go hang.
It is a weird city. This coming from a guy who's been there a couple times.
This coming from a guy who lived there for 10 years, I wouldn't blatantly designate some city in a subjective category without defining what the definition is.
I think it will Korean War II.... North having better day until US arrives. Then US-SK pushing NK to Pyongyang which will seriously draw Soviet's and PRC's attention to this matter. Both is determined to keep NK regime. So IMO, there will be behind the scene talks between US, USSR and PRC. This would result old good 38th parallel border as annexation of either means WWIII is real possibility.
There will be UNSC resolution which condemns NK, but restores good old status. DMZ is now controlled by UN troops (mostly US, PRC and USSR troops).
Of course Seoul is screwed as well as NK's cities. So Korea is major looser.
I personally think PRC would consider seriously about being committed to its closest ally (only friendly country among PRC's neighbors). PRC is not as close to US as today and there is some hostility still going. Just look how Deng reacted to Tiananmin Incident. It was potential to reversing US-PRC relationship to Mao Era.
There will be UNSC resolution which condemns NK, but restores good old status. DMZ is now controlled by UN troops (mostly US, PRC and USSR troops).
Of course Seoul is screwed as well as NK's cities. So Korea is major looser.
I personally think PRC would consider seriously about being committed to its closest ally (only friendly country among PRC's neighbors). PRC is not as close to US as today and there is some hostility still going. Just look how Deng reacted to Tiananmin Incident. It was potential to reversing US-PRC relationship to Mao Era.
The idea is that Kim believes that he has Soviet support by misinterpreting their communication; Deng's China is going to even less reason to support NK if it was their fault causing the war(other than the fact that NK is on the Soviet side at that moment), until there is no NK between itself and SK.
This is by this time what I think would happen:
So when the war happens, NK attacks, SK retreats 5km with heavy casualties from artillery shelling. Bomber planes from Okinawa and Japanese bases fly to NK and bomb the living hell out of NK. Stalemate along the 5km retreat line until US arrive; together the SK-US forces invade up to along the Pyongyang-Hamhung line. About 50% of NK forces will be used for SK attack(forward deployment along the DMZ border); with this force largely non-extant, SK-US forces reach Pyongyang within the month.
Within the UN, the major nations of the SC make moves towards a peace treaty; with the fact obviously evident that NK made a preemptive attack towards SK, it is agreed that borders be drawn along the lines of occupation. All are happy except NK(and maybe Soviet Union).
In your post you disregarded I. the Sino-Soviet split, which has become quite severe by now; II. the fact that NK has pre-emptively started the attack, which is important when making treaties post-war; III. and that the artillery are positioned to attack the SK forces along the DMZ, not for Seoul(the capital city is their objective to reach by infantry, not artillery). Thus the outcome may be different from what you imagine.