It looks like we're going in circles again. Generally speaking, I think that you're solely focusing on the island, and mostly ignoring the states within Manchuria and the Korean Peninsula, while I'm trying to analyze the situation as a very small component of East Asia. You might be able to work out the specifics better with your approach, but the situation has to ultimately fit within the geopolitics of the region as a whole, which you're not directly addressing.
These aren't settler populations they are refugeess.
Both have to "settle" within an area, unless you're telling me that the "refugees" will become nomads. Regardless, the fact that they are refugees suggests that a significant amount of them will not survive for more than a decade or so, as settlers will generally be more able to adjust to the environment after utilizing resources efficiently.
Never forget thenatives only had an original population of 10,000 as a middle grround the balhaean had only 4000 initially and was absorbing immigration of 3000 balhaean/jurchen from the mainland and 5000 natives before the population doubled at the fall of jin.
I honestly have absolutely no idea what you're trying to say here because you've lumped everything together, but I'm going to assume that your statistics attempt to prove a "significant population growth rate" due to immigration and assimilation. However, these figures are too high, as the Jurchen/natives will drastically outnumber the original refugees from Balhae, and conflicts will inevitably occur due to population pressures and/or dissent from the native majority, weakening the state.
The numbers you presented would be correct if the founding of Lesser Balhae. Was a directed attempt at colonization ,but that is not the case here.
Lesser Balhae was founded by refugees and often new waves that came to the island were more refugees. The harsh climate and difficult route to get there weeded out. The weakest rfugees of each group. Those without the skills to survive the. Climate rarely. Made it to the new land. 75% of the migrants were healthy adult males very few women or children made the trip. Many of these men were skilled in survival and many were capable of combat. I am not sure where you are getting your troop numbers from?
Disorganized refugees translate into cramped conditions, which drastically increase the mortality rate. Even if we somehow assume that 75% of the migrants (which you ironically equated with refugees) are in "ideal" condition, I'm guessing that only around 25-50% of the original number will remain alive within a decade or so. I also thought that I thoroughly explained beforehand how the settlements will not be sustainable in the long run if the soldiers number more than 1/5 of the population or so, not to mention that soldiers in cramped conditions have the tendency to spread disease, which is certainly not ideal in this scenario.
THIS IS part of why they heavily married native wives. Natives added 2100 to the initial population then an additional 2000 natives were allies.. what little raiding went on did very little to the balhaeans side as the reprizals were not worth the fight natives either traded with the balhaeans or avoided them which was easy since 80% of the population lived in the south with their allies. As to food remember the island is not a dirt poor wasteland it could support as many as 40000 people naturally on its resources most of which are in the south. Then with fishing lesser balhae always had more than enough to feed its population.
After a century or two, the population will probably retain some Balhae customs, but the individuals will be vastly composed of natives, meaning that conflict will most likely occur if the "royal family" attempts to impose restrictions due to its extreme minority and fear of a hostile takeover. I also never stated that the island was a "dirt poor wasteland," and if I did so, the population within such a restricted area would probably not survive much more than two generations. While fish would be a major food source, rice and vegetables still need to be grown extensively on farmland, which will be extremely difficult to achieve either due to the lack of enough land, requiring frequent conflicts with local tribes, or cultivars from Manchuria, which will take decades, if not centuries, to adopt in a different climate.
Unless the population of lesser balhae was in constant decline several thousand people moving there overtime would be a great impact. Allowing the population to reach 10,000 during an economic boom. The heavy migration of the Jin followed the same pattern of mostly being males and several thousand were soldiers. Balhae desperate employed its own small army to focus on defense which was about 2200 men at the time and 800 native auxileries, Through the tactics the mongols were often prevented from landing troop. Ships were sunk through an effective use of gunpowder learned from the Jin and fire. Then siegging the fortications was difficult through the winters.
The "economic boom" requires the Jurchen to view the island as profitable to begin with, which you're still not directly addressing. In addition, if you're saying that several thousand were soldiers, you're essentially suggesting that at least 10,000 Jurchen will emigrate from Manchuria, which will almost certainly destabilize the rump state due to political, cultural, and population factors. In addition, the amount of soldiers fighting against the Mongols that you provided is too high, not to mention that the Mongols will adopt gunpowder much more extensively from the Jin, and will be able to transport the weapons by ship, as the Jurchen immigrants would have done so previously as well. In other words, while the Mongols might take some casualties, the fact that the walls on the island will be breached numerous times, and that they will not be rebuilt quickly, suggests that the inhabitants on the island will no longer have the capability to fight an extended war after a conflict or two.
Most of the mongols more effective troops and jin crew would be use against a much larger foe like the japanese.
I hope you're not being serious here. The Mongols will need at least a few hundred sailors before attempting to invade an island, which will be an insignificant number in terms of the navy as a whole. However, it will certainly be enough for most of the army to successfully land and conduct extensive operations afterward.
Overtime the balhaeans built up a miltary but this was to only 3300 troops with 1200 auxileries against 7000 many of which never made it to shore.
The losses. Of ships and men in the different campaigns pushed back the next attempt till 1297 the yuan forces planned well for getting their troops across sending small forces to test different areas defenses. They started the larger campaign in 1299.
Even if we're assuming that the rump state's population was around 10,000 at this time, which I would consider to be unreasonably high, the total amount of troops would probably number around 1,000-2,000, based on the ratio I provided earlier several times. That is barely enough to resist the Mongols, let alone being run over.
