WI: Korea refuses to accept the treaty with Japan in 1876

It's really harder to say. Sure, the Japanese might not be able to force a treaty on Korea, but not so much due to Qing intervention (they've just been hit by famine at the time), but the European Powers'. More than likely, Korea ends up signing unequal treaties with European powers except Japan, and Japan's ego gets bruised again due to European pressure containing them. Problem is, how to get the Europeans to even care?
 
There was an argument in Japan whether or not they should first attempt negotiation or try the 1592 option. Although I'm not sure how it wouldn't go like OTL in 1876(since Gwanghwa was not up to modern defence standards), if Heungseon continues to extend a heavy hand over the policy it is possible there exists no treaty between Japan and Korea. This most likely means continued isolation or an earlier First Sino-Japanese War, as the Chinese would most likely be told about an incoming Japanese invasion of Korea.
 
Japan had partially mobilized the garrisons in Kyushu (Hiroshima and Kumamoto specifically) in preparation for if the Koreans did not agree to "to provide compensation for the incident," of course referring to the attack on the Un'yō in 1875. But by this point Japan had issues with actually going to war. War would have been extremely costly, and government expenses were already high elsewhere. A degree of instability was still in the archipelago, as you can imagine.

A full-scale invasion à la 1592 is extremely unlikely. Maybe a limited attack to further intimidate the Korean government into conceding (although this may have only limited effect on a continued Daewongun government), but there's no way in hell they're going for a repeat of 1592.
 
Japan had partially mobilized the garrisons in Kyushu (Hiroshima and Kumamoto specifically) in preparation for if the Koreans did not agree to "to provide compensation for the incident," of course referring to the attack on the Un'yō in 1875. But by this point Japan had issues with actually going to war. War would have been extremely costly, and government expenses were already high elsewhere. A degree of instability was still in the archipelago, as you can imagine.

A full-scale invasion à la 1592 is extremely unlikely. Maybe a limited attack to further intimidate the Korean government into conceding (although this may have only limited effect on a continued Daewongun government), but there's no way in hell they're going for a repeat of 1592.

Oh, I'd like to see them try- it most likely severely weakens the Meiji Empire from the start-
 
There was an argument in Japan whether or not they should first attempt negotiation or try the 1592 option. Although I'm not sure how it wouldn't go like OTL in 1876(since Gwanghwa was not up to modern defence standards), if Heungseon continues to extend a heavy hand over the policy it is possible there exists no treaty between Japan and Korea. This most likely means continued isolation or an earlier First Sino-Japanese War, as the Chinese would most likely be told about an incoming Japanese invasion of Korea.

At this point in time, there is NO way China is losing this one. :D

Someone should try writing a timeline about this.

The Fuzhou Shipyards are still active, since they won't be destroyed for another 10 years. Also, Japan's still in the middle of their reforms, it'll hurt them a lot more.

Meaning... no militaristic/warlike Japan? Heheheh cool POD.
 
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