WI Korea declares war on Japan during the Russo-Japanes War?

This comes from a discussion in one of my history classes yesterday. According to the Anglo-Japanese Alliance, each nation had to assist the other if two or more nations declared war on them. The alliance was set up this way so that the UK and Japan wouldn't get dragged into each other's foreign policy constantly, but only when there was a large war with a coalition of nations arrayed against them. In 1905, Korea was pretty much a client state of Russia. When the Russo-Japanese War began, Korea initially started preparing its military to provide what little help they were capable of offering to their ally (Korea's military ranged somewhere between small and nonexistent at this point). However, Russia advised Korea to not join the war for two reasons (a) they didn't think they'd have too much trouble beating Japan and (b) they didn't want to risk activating the Anglo-Japanese Alliance and ending up at war with the UK. So what if Korea goes to war against Japan?

There are several ways this could occur. The Korean king had already proven that he wasn't the brightest guy in the world (If you doubt this, read about how the Sino-Japanese War got started. Pure stupidity on the part of the Korean government). So maybe he ignores the Russian advise out of some misplaced sense of patriotism. Or perhaps more plausibly, Russia doesn't advise him to stay out of the war, assuming that Korea can properly read the geopolitical situation and know that getting in is a bad idea for all involved (Korea gets curbstomped by Japan, and Russia is too busy with the UK to try to save them). Then the king proves that he isn't as smart as Russian leadership thought he was, and jumps into the war anyway.

So once Russia and Korea are at war with Japan, this activates the Anglo-Japanese Alliance, and the UK is bound by the terms of that alliance to go to war with Russia. What happens next? Would other nations (nations in Europe, USA, what's left of China, etc.) take sides in this war or stay out of it? Could this erupt into a WWI analog in 1905 (obviously with very different sides, but nevertheless)? Even if the war does remain limited in scope (UK and Japan vs. Russia and Korea), this could still have long term impacts on Central Asia, as the "Great Game" suddenly becomes a "Great War."
 
Anti-Russian feeling was still relatively strong, though it was starting to fade. On the other hand, with the Dogger Bank incident and all that, I can see Britain declaring war just on priniciple. It would also finally give a resolution to the Great Game, the Anglo-Russian cold war in Central Asia, which only a few years previously had almost gone hot. That in its own right would be interesting-Russia would be forced to wage a two-front war, both fronts far from its center.
 
Anti-Russian feeling was still relatively strong, though it was starting to fade. On the other hand, with the Dogger Bank incident and all that, I can see Britain declaring war just on priniciple. It would also finally give a resolution to the Great Game, the Anglo-Russian cold war in Central Asia, which only a few years previously had almost gone hot. That in its own right would be interesting-Russia would be forced to wage a two-front war, both fronts far from its center.

What do you think the outcome would be? I'm assuming that the Anglo-Japanese Alliance would win, since Japan managed to beat Russia single-handedly in OTL, but how large would the victory be? Would Russia have to cede land to Japan in East Asia? Would Russia have to cede land to the UK in Central Asia (I'm thinking the modern day area with all of the stans)? How much British expansion would the western powers tolerate without trying to intervene to preserve the balance of power?
 
IOTL, Wilhelm of Germany was trying to use the Russo-Japanese War to get an alliance with the Russians against the British and French so that they could basically start WW1 early and with Russia on their side. The Russian Czar was against this because he wasn't a huge fan of Wilhelm and he didn't want to get into a war with the UK. If the UK declares war, however, Germany is going to come in on Russia's side and bring Austria along with them.

Italy and the Ottomans may stay out of the conflict, but they might not. If the Ottomans come in, there's no telling where they're going to go. They don't like the British or French but they aren't fond of the Russians either. They'll probably sit this one out since they're starting to get some real trouble in their outlying areas. Italy will probably sit this one out as well until it looks like someone is going to win and then jump in on their side. That is, unless the Ottomans join in the war on the side of the Brits. In that case, the Italians are going to honor their alliance with Austria and Germany and try to take Libya.

Of course France's position in all this isn't assured either. They don't like the Germans and definitely want revenge, but the odds don't look to be on their side. The Entente Cordiale is only 7 months old (If the Dodger Bank incident happened before the British activated the alliance) and the French may decide not to join in a war the British declared. Even as late as 1911 there was waffling over what the exact meaning of the agreement meant in terms of an alliance system.

If France comes in on Britain's side, they get hammered on the land. If they don't, then the Germans lose on the Sea but send troops to Manchuria to win it for the Russians there. Honestly, the Russo-Japanese War is one of those wars which almost cannot go worse for the Russians.

Edit: Actually, now that I've said that, I've heard somewhere on this board that the combined Austrian and Italian navies during WW1 were a match for the French/British fleet in the Mediterranean. Throw in the Russian fleet and there's a possibility for some significant British losses in the Med.
 
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Italy and the Ottomans may stay out of the conflict, but they might not. If the Ottomans come in, there's no telling where they're going to go. They don't like the British or French but they aren't fond of the Russians either. They'll probably sit this one out since they're starting to get some real trouble in their outlying areas. Italy will probably sit this one out as well until it looks like someone is going to win and then jump in on their side. That is, unless the Ottomans join in the war on the side of the Brits. In that case, the Italians are going to honor their alliance with Austria and Germany and try to take Libya.

Or Italy could just jump the Ottomans while everyone is occupyed and probably everyone wouldent care.
 
Gents,

I don't think the Korea of 1904 would count as an actual "nation" for the purposes of the Anglo-Japanese treaty. As the OP already mentioned, Korea was a de facto client state of Russia and a de jure tributary state of China, both of which meant Korea wasn't seen as a "real" nation by any power that mattered. A Korean declaration of war would be ignored, just as all Korean opinions and announcements during the period were routinely ignored.

What's more, the treaty contained language in which Britain acknowledged Japan's interests in Korea, interests which were naturally at odds with Korea's already existing "relationships" with both Russia and China.

While the alliance was aimed at Russia specifically, it certainly wasn't viewed by either party as something that would regularly apply beyond the confines of northeast Asia. The treaty had specific language that stated Japan wouldn't be obliged to help defend India for example, even if Britain found itself at war with two other nations. Also, while Japan did send warships to the Med during WW1 under the aegis of the treaty, but no one who had negotiated the original document or the 1905 extension could have foreseen it's application during a world war.

So, if Korea does declare war on Japan in 1904, no one important is going to notice and it really won't change a thing.


Bill

P.S. Here's a quote from Article 1 of the treaty which supports my point about Korea not being viewed as a "real" nation by the signatories.

The High Contracting parties, having mutually recognized the independence of China and Korea, declare themselves to be entirely uninfluenced by aggressive tendencies in either country, having in view, however, their special interests, of which those of Great Britain relate principally to China, whilst Japan, in addition to the interests which she possesses in China, is interested in a peculiar degree, politically as well as commercially and industrially in Korea, the High Contracting parties recognize that it will be admissible for either of them to take such measures as may be indispensable in order to safeguard those interests if threatened either by the aggressive action of any other Power, or by disturbances arising in China or Korea, and necessitating the intervention of either of the High Contracting parties for the protection of the lives and properties of its subjects.

Britain's acknowledgment of Japan's interest in a "peculiar degree" in Korea means that Korea doesn't count. It's merely a target for Japan's imperial ambitions and not an actual nation.
 
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To an extent, this has been something I've always wondered about since I'm of 1/2 Korean.
Based on what I read, it would require Queen Min to not be killed in 1895 or the King to not suffer a BSOD from her death. And country seem to be politically divided on what they should do(serve China, Japan, or follow their own path).

Wiki says that Queen Min was actually get the army to moderize it may have actually been a major asset(presuming it wasn't gutted after her death). Not enough to counter Britain should they get involved however.
 

Germaniac

Donor
I highly doubt the Koreans would be able to act on their own, Russia and Japan were playing a tug-o-war quite literally (I get the feeling that their is a great Thomas Nast cartoon with a Bear and a stereotypical Japanese man tugging a robe with the words Korea on it :))

I really don't think the Koreans want either controlling them so why help one side.
 
Hmm, the domestic situation in Russia wasn't exactly perfect either. In October you have the 1905 Revolution, how would a war with the UK change that. Intensify it or Patriotic Rage butterfly anything happening?
 
Queen Min courted Russian influence to counter the Japanese's attempts to take over Korea. Wiki says that she also courted the US in assistance on modernizing the country. Her death and the King's grief over it gave a free hand to the Japanese attempts to take control of the country, however.

Its also possible that Korea could try to get the US involved under the terms of the "Korean-American Treaty of Amity and Commerce" which has mutual defense incase of invasion.
This site http://www.asianresearch.org/articles/1462.html also mentions that Commodore Shufeldt who negotiated the treaty for the US that the United States viewed Korea as an independent nation and would not "incorporate Chinese suzerainty over Korea" into the treaty.
 
Hmm, the domestic situation in Russia wasn't exactly perfect either. In October you have the 1905 Revolution, how would a war with the UK change that. Intensify it or Patriotic Rage butterfly anything happening?

A lot of the October Revolution was over the obvious ineptitude of the government to not just smash the Japanese (Seen as a weak Asian nation). But it's more complex than that, if the Russians are losing at all out there, the revolutionaries will see it as a failure of the government.

But if the United Kingdom enters on Japan's side, that doesn't guarantee a Japanese victory. The Germans would ally with Russia against Britain and bring Austria in with them. While Britain would have the naval advantage, they'd still know they were in a war. On land, the Russian-German-Austrian forces would have a much bigger advantage over the Anglo-Japanese forces in Asia.
 
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