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Kodoha was the japanese imperial way faction, they supported the plan of the northern expansion into siberia, so here is a scenario:
The 2-26 coup is succesfull
There is no marco polo bridge incident, japan adopts a defensive stance in manchuria and Mengjiang
As soon operation barbarossa starts, japan launches it's own invasion of the soviet union, as planned:
Japan DO NOT attack any colony of the western allies, not even french indochina, so there is no oil embargo
What happens after that?