Wi Kodoha Japan invades the soviet union?

Kodoha was the japanese imperial way faction, they supported the plan of the northern expansion into siberia, so here is a scenario:

The 2-26 coup is succesfull
There is no marco polo bridge incident, japan adopts a defensive stance in manchuria and Mengjiang
As soon operation barbarossa starts, japan launches it's own invasion of the soviet union, as planned:
2000px-Hokushin-ron-Map.svg.png

Japan DO NOT attack any colony of the western allies, not even french indochina, so there is no oil embargo
What happens after that?
 
Just a thing, in the map I posted it shows japan holding their puppet on china, but in this scenario there is no invasion of china, the japanese empire use all their strengh in the soviet union
 
Japan already took a stab at the USSR at Khalkin Gol in 1939. It didn't go according to plan.

And the Soviets are going to be quite busy in the West. If the Japanese never invaded China and invaded the USSR, they will have around 3-4 MILLION men at their disposal to invade. Plus they have air and naval superiority.
 
A single battle isn't a full blown land-naval invasion

But, Khalkin Gol exposed how unprepared the IJA was against the Soviet army, and only result in the Japanese losing their post-1905 gains.

In any case, Nationalist China was embarking on major industrial and military projects. It was planned that by 1940, it would have built 60 German-trained army divisions, become self-sufficient in basic industry, and built a functional national railway network. Chiang was succeeding in bringing the warlords to heel, while the Commies would definitely have been destroyed had it not been for Japan's continued provocations. In fact, when the PRC under Mao established diplomatic ties with Japan in the 1970s, Mao openly expressed thanks for the invasion, as it saved his behind.

It was simply not acceptable to allow a strong and united China determined to recover its territories to sit on the empire's southern border. And all for what? Millions of square miles of barren wasteland (Siberia's mineral wealth was not fully discovered)?
 
Long story short: Japan wins initially, gets crippled by US economic sanctions as punishment, IGHQ freaks out and tries to go south while still holding territory in Russia, US rolls back and then nukes Japan.
 
Japan will do well initially simply because the Soviet union is preoccupied with the Germans. This will have a very detrimental affect on Lend Lease sent to Vladivostok; that will need to be diverted to the long route through Persia. Long term success for the Japanese is more dubious, but in conjunction with the Germans a favorable negotiated peace may be possible.

The strategic problem for Japan in this scenario is China.

No Sino-Japanese War and an invasion of the Soviet Union in 1941 means Nationalist China has four years to consolidate its control of the country, build its economy, and improve its armed forces.

Chiang will have eliminated the Communists by then (at least an independent political force with its own military), and likely imposed his control over one or more of the remaining warlords (probably Guangxi and Han Fuqu of Shandong).

Economically, China will have completed the various Three Year projects begun in 1936. It will have new arsenals producing rifles and artillery, and its first factories producing automotives, radios, and essential chemicals for armaments. It will also be well on its way to completing a second group of Three Year projects.

In the military, it will have a Central Army of around 60 trained German divisions (as opposed to the seven it had at the start of the Sino-Japanese War). It will probably also have a reformed air force (Claire Chennault was actually hired by Chiang before the Sino-Japanese War began).

So it is a far more formidable country with these extra four years.

If Japan goes to war with the Soviet Union, it presents Chiang an excellent opportunity to move against Japanese interests in China. Most likely this means establishing control by Nanking over Hebei and Shanxi. That means ending the "East Hebei Autonomous Council" which was a Japanese puppet organization. Preoccupied with the Soviets, the Japanese will have a hard time doing anything than verbal protests.

Once that is satisfied, the Chinese will look at how they can get back Manchuria. Most likely Chiang will wait for signs of difficulty for Japan. Depending on the exact circumstances, China could pursue a negotiated or military solution.

The Soviets can potentially concede enough to Chiang to make it very attractive for China to enter a war against Japan. Stalin can abandon Xinjiang and even Mongolia to China, and give up any claims in Manchuria.

Despite the qualitative edge of the Japanese troops and Japanese economy, by the mid-1940s, Nationalist China will have improved enough qualitatively that their superior numbers can win a war against Japan. Their formations will not be equivalent, but they'll be good enough given their numbers.
 
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