WI: KMT victory in the Huaihai Campaign

IOTL, the Huaihai campaign was one of the last truly "balanced" battles between nationalist and communist forces in the Chinese Civil War. The KMT's army would eventually be surrounded and defeated by the communists (something due to Chiang-Kai-Shek's plans being leaked by CCP spies).
But what if the KMT had achieved a decisive victory in the battle?
-Would the KMT be able to grind the communists down to a stalemate at the Yangtse river? Would we see a China divided between a communist north and a right-wing south, and if so, how would that affect power plays in the Cold War?
-If the above scenario is possible, then what happens to Korea and Tibet?
 
-If the above scenario is possible, then what happens to Korea and Tibet?

I can't say about Korea and Tibet, but Vietnam is either unified under the south or it remains divided until the end of the cold war, because the Kuomitang wouldn't allow the soviets to supply them (they could even invade north vietnam during the war)
 

Deleted member 1487

IOTL, the Huaihai campaign was one of the last truly "balanced" battles between nationalist and communist forces in the Chinese Civil War. The KMT's army would eventually be surrounded and defeated by the communists (something due to Chiang-Kai-Shek's plans being leaked by CCP spies).
But what if the KMT had achieved a decisive victory in the battle?
-Would the KMT be able to grind the communists down to a stalemate at the Yangtse river? Would we see a China divided between a communist north and a right-wing south, and if so, how would that affect power plays in the Cold War?
-If the above scenario is possible, then what happens to Korea and Tibet?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huaihai_Campaign

TBH I have no idea if the KMT could limp on, but if so and China was split between the ChiCom North and KMT South I don't see Mao releasing the Korean veterans of his army to North Korea and enabling the Korean war. Likely the US will start to step up it's support to Chiang and make China the front line in the Cold War, while Korea is a subsidiary front that doesn't go hot, because there is a constant conflict in China. Mao has a huge part of the oil resources of China under his control, so will be pretty well resourced given that the majority of the population is in the South.
Yangtze_River_Map.png


Kind of a 'warring states period redux' would ensue I'd think. Without Korea and Vietnam really boiling over, the latter could not due to no Chinese supplies and US paranoia about losing China the former because China is sucking up all the air in the room and probably keeping Koreans veterans in the Chinese army, China is the focus of attention to both sides to the detriment of the Chinese people, with South China becoming a large Taiwan and endless sinkhole for US resources and potentially manpower even to help prop up Chiang/the KMT and keep the Civil War going to try and unify the country as some point. The ChiComs won't fall out with the Soviets due to need for support.

Things would get really interesting going forward.
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huaihai_Campaign

TBH I have no idea if the KMT could limp on, but if so and China was split between the ChiCom North and KMT South I don't see Mao releasing the Korean veterans of his army to North Korea and enabling the Korean war. Likely the US will start to step up it's support to Chiang and make China the front line in the Cold War, while Korea is a subsidiary front that doesn't go hot, because there is a constant conflict in China. Mao has a huge part of the oil resources of China under his control, so will be pretty well resourced given that the majority of the population is in the South.
Kind of a 'warring states period redux' would ensue I'd think. Without Korea and Vietnam really boiling over, the latter could not due to no Chinese supplies and US paranoia about losing China the former because China is sucking up all the air in the room and probably keeping Koreans veterans in the Chinese army, China is the focus of attention to both sides to the detriment of the Chinese people, with South China becoming a large Taiwan and endless sinkhole for US resources and potentially manpower even to help prop up Chiang/the KMT and keep the Civil War going to try and unify the country as some point. The ChiComs won't fall out with the Soviets due to need for support.
Things would get really interesting going forward.
Personally, i can see an armistice to the civil war if the KMT's forces are more successful. Is it possible that a "second chinese war" between the north and the south happens later?
If so, then how will both sides of the cold war be involved? Will there still be a sino-soviet split?
 

Deleted member 1487

Personally, i can see an armistice to the civil war if the KMT's forces are more successful. Is it possible that a "second chinese war" between the north and the south happens later?
If so, then how will both sides of the cold war be involved? Will there still be a sino-soviet split?
I certainly think you're right that a ceasefire out of exhaustion and then later 2nd war happens. Pretty hard to get a Sino-Soviet split if North China is worried about the South.
 
... what happens to ... Tibet?
Tibet isn't going anywhere, it's staying a part of the Republic. By force if necessary. From the Xinhai revolution onwards you had the principle of five races under one union as reflected by the black stripe in the early five-coloured flag which represented Tibet. The Republic had the Mongolian and Tibetan Affairs Commission which was a cabinet-level commission to administer the two areas, and Chiang Kai-Shek made numerous statements about them being a part of China and their populations Chinese citizens.
 
IMHO, it's kind of a clichéd misconception (if that's a thing even) that the ROC would leave Tibet alone. The PRC stormed into Tibet for nationalism, and the ROC would do it as--if not more readily. Chiang may even be more brutal, given his track record with the Taiwanese Aboriginals.

But North and South China would probably just be nightmarish genocidal China VS nightmarish genocidal China, both of which have the full capability to get even worse.
 
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