What if Neil Kinnock won in 1992? How could this be done? Who would the Tories elect as their leader? Would Labour win the next election or be crushed and be divided? How would UK politics be altered? What would be the effects? what if?
A lot would depend on whether Black Wednesday still happens, and how the government handled it. I am no expert on economics, so I cant really say I know whether or not Labour would have averted it, but if it hits and Labour gets blamed for it as much as the Tories did in OTL, that is practically game over for them. They had spent thirteen years trying to overcome a reputation for mismanaging the economy, to have an economic crisis on there hands within just a few months would destroy all that work at a stroke.
If Major goes, which he may not, then I could see it being Norman Lamont from the Eurosceptic right, and probably Clarke would emerge as the main contender from the left. Whoever wins, it is pretty likely that the Tories would spend much of there time, as in OTL, fighting about Europe, and as the opposition party that will inflict more damage on them.
If Black Wednesday is as calamitous for Labour as it was for the Tories, they would still probably win the next election (though perhaps with a strong Lib Dem vote due to disillusionment with both parties). But if Labour can avoid the blame, then they have a strong economy at the end of there term and a divided opposition, and stand a good chance of winning a second term, perhaps increasing there small majority.
Kinnock would go sometime during the next term, likely being succeeded either by Smith (provided his second heart attack is butterflied, or he isnt to old) or by Blair or Brown, depending on which of the two had the higher profile at that moment in time. Maybe they would win a third term if the Tories cant get there act together and the new PM has a honeymoon period, but they would likely lose the one after that.