Wi Kinnock stands down after 1987 election?

Hi everyone,

I'm not sure if this has been discussed on here before (or whether Kinnock considered doing this), but the 1987 General Election in the UK produced a pretty big win for Thatcher's Tories-though not on the scale of 1983.

So, what if instead of remaining Labour leader, Neil Kinnock had decided that to win the next election, Labour needed a fresh face?

Who are the leadership contenders and who wins? How does this affect the 1987/1992 parliament? Do Labour still lose the 1992 election, minus Kinnock's presence?

Any thoughts?
 

Cook

Banned
So, what if instead of remaining Labour leader, Neil Kinnock had decided that to win the next election, Labour needed a fresh face?
More realistically you should phrase the question thus:

'What if instead of sticking with a two time loser, the numbers boys decide that it’s time for a fresh face?'

Britain was overdue for a change of government by 1992, it is really surprising that by then Labour still hadn’t recognised Kinnock for the political mill stone that he was.
 
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More realistically you should phrase the question thus:

'What if instead of sticking with a two time loser, the numbers boys decide that it’s time for a fresh face?'

Britain was overdue for a change of government by 1992, it is really surprising that by then Labour still hadn’t recognised Kinnock for the political mill stone that he was.

Well I'm not bothered as to whether he's pushed by the labour party or decides to go of his own accord, I'm more interested in the ramifications of Kinnock's early departure.

If you think it's more realistic for Kinnock to be forced out by the party though, I'll go with that.

So what happens afterwards?
 
Tony Benn challenged Kinnock in OTL 1988, so he might throw his hat into the ring. It depends who else from the left is up for it.

I'd imagine John Smith is still probably a shoo-in. Now, if he doesn't die within two years as in OTL and ends up leading Labour into 1992, I would maybe put a tenner on a Labour majority.
 

Cook

Banned
So what happens afterwards?
Assuming they put forward a confident fresh face and have a few sound policies, they win a comfortable margin in 1992. This would have benefited the Conservatives too (although I doubt they’d have seen it that way at the time) because they wouldn’t have remained in the wilderness for as long without suffering the massive defeat that the following election delivered in OTL.
 
Tony Benn challenged Kinnock in OTL 1988, so he might throw his hat into the ring. It depends who else from the left is up for it.

I'd imagine John Smith is still probably a shoo-in. Now, if he doesn't die within two years as in OTL and ends up leading Labour into 1992, I would maybe put a tenner on a Labour majority.

As much respect as I have for Benn, I can't see him winning the leadership with a Post Foot pod.

Smith winning is interesting-in OTL he had a non-fatal heart attack barely a year after his would be election as leader. Apparently he was at the doctors at the time, but it's safe to assume that the personal butterflies affecting Smith after he becomes leader could mean he isn't at the doctors this time, which could necesitate another leadership contest.

If Smith survives his 1988 heart attack I agree he'd be better placed to beat Major and secure a narrow majority.
 
I agree the Tories benefit longterm from Labour winning in 1992, I'd say they're probabal, but not sure winners in 1997 (or whenever the next election is).
 

Cook

Banned
I agree the Tories benefit longterm from Labour winning in 1992, I'd say they're probabal, but not sure winners in 1997 (or whenever the next election is).
Well if Labour won in ’92, the Conservatives getting back into power in ’97 would be very unlikely unless the Labour government turned out to be completely insane. But they’d be within striking distance for the following election.
 
Well if Labour won in ’92, the Conservatives getting back into power in ’97 would be very unlikely unless the Labour government turned out to be completely insane. But they’d be within striking distance for the following election.

Not necessarily, we're now conditioned to assume clear wins but as a Smith leadership post 1987 would have been considerably more threatening to Thatcher than OTL it will probably cause her removal earlier. That in turn might result in a very narrow (1974 esque) defeat in the '91/'92 election. It is entirely plausibly to have a Smith Labour government with a 20 seat majority ruined by the ERM fiasco and 5 years of governing without a safe majority and held hostage by the remains of the Labour Left before getting beaten on a relatively small swing in '97.
 
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