WI: Kingmaker victorious at the battle of Barnet 1471

[Archon of Thessaly]

One of more forgotten battles of the Cousins ( or war of the roses)- despite being close to London and, more significantly, the site of the earl of Warwick Richard Nevilles, the Kingmakers death.
In a plot almost out of game of thrones, The earl of Warwick had helped the early of Marsh ( future Edward IV) defeat a coalition of mainly Northern Lancastrian leaders at Towton in 1461, following the betrayal and deaths of both of their fathers out side Wakefield.

However, his attempt to control to King failed, and the king married Elizabeth Woodville. This led to a rift developing, after which Clarence ( Edwards brother) and Warwick captured him and tried to rule through him. They were defeated and, having fled to France, made an alliance with their old rival; Margaret of Anjou, Heny VI wife. They overthrew Edward, married Warwick daughter the heir, Henry's son Edward and briefly ruled.

Then, 1 year later, Edward returned, claiming, like Henry Bolingbrook 70 years earlier, to merely be reclaiming his dukedom. He was rejoined by his brother Clarence and, together with Richard of Gloucester and the lord Hastings, recaptured London. Finally, they faced Warwick army at Barnet.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Barnet

The fog on the day of the battle meant that the lines overlapped, enabling to Gloucester to outflank the Lancaster Left, while the Lancastrians under Oxford did so on the Yorkist Left, routing Clarence and Hastings.

It is at this point that things went wrong. Oxford, victorious, returned, not realizing that due to the collapse of both sides left wing that the whole line had turned 90 degrees. As a result, he returned to the rear of the recently defected Lancastrian leader Montague ( brother of Warwick, ) who was fighting Edward in the center. Oxford was fired upon by confused Montagues troops, Oxford cried "Treachery"- which predictably caused Chaos in the Lancastrian lines, which Edward exploited, causing a swift rout during which Warwick was killed.

But what if Oxford had not made this error? Or even better returned on Edwards flank? Don't forget that Margaret Of anjou had just arrived in England with her son and heir, so Warwick hold a temporary control on power. How long will this last? Will fresh civil war occur?

 

[CP11]

It depends on how big a victory you have Warwick win.

1) a totally victory with death for the three Yorkist brothers sees the Lancastrians totally dominant in power. Peace probably reigns for a few years before Warwick is squeezed out by the Lancastrians and rebels. Probably ends up with his head on a spike.

2) a victory with Edward IV dying but George and Richard surviving would be interesting as Warwick would have hugely split interests. George is married to his eldest daughter and has proved malleable to Warwick's influence in the past, while his younger daughter is obviously with Edward of Lancaster. As if to make this more complicated, if Warwick and George do unite I would imagine the remaining Yorkists rally around either young Edward of York or Richard of Gloucester

3) A tactical victory for Warwick sees Edward retreat, Lancaster holds the throne and then the situation is the reverse of the early 1460s, with York posing a few problems but the Lancastrians in control. Again the Warwick split could be an opportunity for York and given that I see Edward IV as the best commander and overall most suitable as king I see him once again gaining the throne, although the conflict could run on for a further generation or two

 

[Archon of Thessaly]

It depends on how big a victory you have Warwick win.

1) a totally victory with death for the three Yorkist brothers sees the Lancastrians totally dominant in power. Peace probably reigns for a few years before Warwick is squeezed out by the Lancastrians and rebels. Probably ends up with his head on a spike.

2) a victory with Edward IV dying but George and Richard surviving would be interesting as Warwick would have hugely split interests. George is married to his eldest daughter and has proved malleable to Warwick's influence in the past, while his younger daughter is obviously with Edward of Lancaster. As if to make this more complicated, if Warwick and George do unite I would imagine the remaining Yorkists rally around either young Edward of York or Richard of Gloucester

3) A tactical victory for Warwick sees Edward retreat, Lancaster holds the throne and then the situation is the reverse of the early 1460s, with York posing a few problems but the Lancastrians in control. Again the Warwick split could be an opportunity for York and given that I see Edward IV as the best commander and overall most suitable as king I see him once again gaining the throne, although the conflict could run on for a further generation or two

Good points. For the sake of this WI, lets say that Edward is killed, but both his brothers escape.

 

[Just a Rube]

A few fun things to note about Yorkist claimants:

Edward VI's kids (the ones who had been born) were already in de facto Lancastrian custody, along with Elizabeth Woodville.

The Duke of Clarence will almost certainly be ineptly plotting somewhere. I agree this is a possible point for a split between Warwick and the old Lancastrians, but note that Warwick seems to have been pretty angry about Clarence's betrayal OTL. On the other hand, Oxford at least seems to have been willing to conspire with Clarence after the death of the Lancastrian male-line OTL.

Gloucester will still be unmarried, and a pretender in exile.

For the Lancastrians, they still have Henry VI as their nominal head, but he may very well need another regency at some point.

 

[Pericles]

I actually tried to make a TL on this..

I think Warwick and Margaret would be the powers behind the throne and bitter rivals. Gloucester and Clarence would most likely fail in a bid for the throne though a Yorkist George I or a successful Richard III would be interesting. Edward of Westminster would eventually become the Lancastrian Edward IV...

 

[CP11]

The Duke of Clarence will almost certainly be ineptly plotting somewhere. I agree this is a possible point for a split between Warwick and the old Lancastrians, but note that Warwick seems to have been pretty angry about Clarence's betrayal OTL. On the other hand, Oxford at least seems to have been willing to conspire with Clarence after the death of the Lancastrian male-line OTL.

the thing with Warwick is that he is a Yorkist at heart. He turned to Margaret of Anjou because his desperate attempts to put George on throne had failed, but when the split between Warwick and Anjou occurs (something I think is guaranteed in this TL) then he can return to the legitimate Yorkist cause and also further his own agenda. Imagine either George or young Edward of York as King (with Warwick as regent). Of course then we could get a Warwick-Woodville split and the process repeats itself. Basically if Barnet goes to the Lancastrians, the stabilities of the 1470s can be kissed goodbye. The Yorkists are in too strong a position to be destroyed for good and the Lancastrians have their internal quarrels.

A fun scenario but perhaps somewhat unlikely is a Lancastrian vs Woodville vs Clarence civil war with three 'claimants' to the throne fighting at once

 

[Archon of Thessaly]

The Duke of Clarence will almost certainly be ineptly plotting somewhere. I agree this is a possible point for a split between Warwick and the old Lancastrians, but note that Warwick seems to have been pretty angry about Clarence's betrayal OTL. On the other hand, Oxford at least seems to have been willing to conspire with Clarence after the death of the Lancastrian male-line OTL.

the thing with Warwick is that he is a Yorkist at heart. He turned to Margaret of Anjou because his desperate attempts to put George on throne had failed, but when the split between Warwick and Anjou occurs (something I think is guaranteed in this TL) then he can return to the legitimate Yorkist cause and also further his own agenda. Imagine either George or young Edward of York as King (with Warwick as regent). Of course then we could get a Warwick-Woodville split and the process repeats itself. Basically if Barnet goes to the Lancastrians, the stabilities of the 1470s can be kissed goodbye. The Yorkists are in too strong a position to be destroyed for good and the Lancastrians have their internal quarrels.

A fun scenario but perhaps somewhat unlikely is a Lancastrian vs Woodville vs Clarence civil war with three 'claimants' to the throne fighting at once

Given Clarence's inept plotting and military abilities, i would place a better bet on Gloucester and his children acting as a Henry VII like character overseas, launching raids on the coast and raising mercenary forces. Of course, given the last expedition, i fear most rulers would have seen them as a spent horse.

An Anjou v Warwick civil war seems likely-who would win? Surviving Yorkists and much of the south would certainly align with Warwick, although the Lancastrians power base is the North. Who would win?

 

[CP11]

Its hard to say really, I think Warwick was generally more popular than Anjou and I think Warwick and his brother Montagu are better battle commanders than Somerset or Exeter who would likely lead the Lancastrian forces, so id give him the edge if the civil war takes place by 1473.

One spanner to throw in the works is what happens if Edward of Lancaster gets Anne Neville pregnant after they arrive back in England. I think this could hold the fragile alliance together for a few years longer and is something I totally overlooked before

The thing is once he opposes Anjou I think Warwick has to look to a Yorkist pretender to recapture his position as 'power-behind-the-throne' (if you buy that theory) as Edward of Lancaster is a grown man who in theory will be emerging as a player in government and would have a strong claim to the regency if Henry goes mad again and who is more likely to support his mother than his families greatest enemy for almost his whole life.

 

[Fiver]

Given Clarence's inept plotting and military abilities, i would place a better bet on Gloucester and his children acting as a Henry VII like character overseas, launching raids on the coast and raising mercenary forces. Of course, given the last expedition, i fear most rulers would have seen them as a spent horse.

Richard would probably flee to Burgundy again. An interesting butterfly might be if Richard's sister Margaret, as duchess, promotes a marriage between Richard and her step-daughter Mary. Backed by his new son-in-law, Charles the Bold might have done better than in OTL.

An Anjou v Warwick civil war seems likely-who would win? Surviving Yorkists and much of the south would certainly align with Warwick, although the Lancastrians power base is the North. Who would win?

And George of Clarence is a wildcard - brother-in-law to the Lancastrian king, but the leading Yorkist claimant.