WI: King Hussein doesn't warn Israel

Wallet

Banned
In 1973, Egyptian President Sadat and Syrian President Assad secretly met with King Hussein of Jordan to ask him to join in their invasion plans.

Hussein had expelled the Palestinian leadership from Jordan in 1970 after their attempted coup. He did not like that Sadat planned to give them the West Bank.

Hussein secretly flew to Tel Aviv and met with Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir to warn her of the coming attack on September 25, 1973. 11 days later, the Yom Kippar war started.

What if King Hussein had not flown to Israel to warm them? This makes Israel even less prepared then OTL.

Maybe the POD is no Black September of 1970? Without the attempted coup, Hussein would not have had fears of a Palestinian state on his borders. Another interesting idea is that before Black September, Yasser Arafat was in talks to become Prime Minister of Jordan.

Another question is what if Jordan joins the war? Hussein wanted peace with Israel, but maybe he could come to an agreement with Sadat that this was only to liberate the Sini, Golan Heights, Gaza Strip, and West Bank. With or without Black September, Palestinians make up a majority of Jordan's population. This would be perfect to handle that problem.

Another implication is Iraq. Iraq OTL planned to send Troops though Jordan. With Jordan neutral, they had to go though Syria. By the time the now much smaller force got their, the ceasefire was declared.

With no warning, could the combined Egyptian, Syrian, Jordanian, and Iraqi armies win?
 
This probably has no effect on the war. King Hussein was not the only one who warned Israel. Israel received eleven warnings in September alone about the attack. And it had already determined that the Arabs were planning an attack, it was only a questions of when. The warning that made Israeli make last minute preparations for war occurred on October 4-6 because of aerial photography and military intelligence. This will still happen without the king's warning.

I do not believe King Hussein's warning caused any change in Israeli actions, therefore a lack of warning has no effect. Israel will be just as prepared or unprepared as OTL. The war will happen almost exactly as it did IOTL. The only difference is that without a warning from King Hussein, the Israelis may have more reason to suspect him, and this may mean they retain more forces in the West Bank and don't achieve such a decisive victory. It may also have impact on future Israeli-Jordan relations. It really depends on how King Hussein reacts once the war begins.

If Jordan joins the war, then it is a completely different scenario. The chances for such a decisive victory probably does not happen with the threat of fighting along the Jordan River, but Israel certainly survives and destroys the main Arab forces. But the chances of someone cutting off and surrounding the Egyptian army is very low.
 

Wallet

Banned
This probably has no effect on the war. King Hussein was not the only one who warned Israel. Israel received eleven warnings in September alone about the attack. And it had already determined that the Arabs were planning an attack, it was only a questions of when. The warning that made Israeli make last minute preparations for war occurred on October 4-6 because of aerial photography and military intelligence. This will still happen without the king's warning.

I do not believe King Hussein's warning caused any change in Israeli actions, therefore a lack of warning has no effect. Israel will be just as prepared or unprepared as OTL. The war will happen almost exactly as it did IOTL. The only difference is that without a warning from King Hussein, the Israelis may have more reason to suspect him, and this may mean they retain more forces in the West Bank and don't achieve such a decisive victory. It may also have impact on future Israeli-Jordan relations. It really depends on how King Hussein reacts once the war begins.

If Jordan joins the war, then it is a completely different scenario. The chances for such a decisive victory probably does not happen with the threat of fighting along the Jordan River, but Israel certainly survives and destroys the main Arab forces. But the chances of someone cutting off and surrounding the Egyptian army is very low.
What I'm thinking is how close the Syrians came to breaking the line. With a Palestine insurgency and Jordanian invasion, more troops will be kept away. They will most likely be taken from the Sini, allowing the Egyptians to reach Gaza.
 

Deleted member 9338

They had an armored Division in combat, to those living through it, we saw The Kingdom as being engaged
 
They had an armored Division in combat, to those living through it, we saw The Kingdom as being engaged

During the Yom Kippur War? I thought Jordan was still angry at Syria for trying to help the Palestinians during the Black September Uprising.

Didn't Israel block Syrian troops from entering Jordan during the uprising?
 
Israel had intelligence from a number of sources telling them about Yom Kippur. They ignored them all due to an institutional culture of invulnerability permeating the IDF and Knesset at the time. One source more or fewer isn't going to affect anything.

Jordan participating - presumably on the side of Egypt and Syria - could be very problematic as it would divert soldiers...but Israel didn't much trust Jordan and kept that border protected anyway. Plus, crossing the Jordan and then the Judean Hills is very difficult; the Jordanians likely wouldn't be able to advance quickly with much armor, leading to painstaking infantry advances hill-by-hill.
 

Wallet

Banned
During the Yom Kippur War? I thought Jordan was still angry at Syria for trying to help the Palestinians during the Black September Uprising.

Didn't Israel block Syrian troops from entering Jordan during the uprising?
The POD is no Black September. Yasser Arafat accepts the offer to be Prime Minister of Jordan as offered in OTL. The Palestinians stay loyal. Since Syrian-Jordan relations are still good, King Huessin doesn't warn Israel of the attack and joins the war. (Arafat now in a position to convince him to liberate the West Bank to finally deal with the Palestian refugee problem)

I'm going to do a timeline tomorrow. The effect now is that their is a 3rd front now. The Palestinians in the West Bank revolt (who stayed neutral in OTL because of Black September) when Jordan invades.

This forces the IDF to use precious troops as population control and prevent the joint Jordan-Iraqi army (Iraq sent troops to Syria OTLbut didn't get there in time) from over running the West Bank.

This means the Styrians take the Golan heights. I don't want to spoil the timeline though
 
With no Jordan warning and possibility of Jordan entering the war the decision will be made to attack first, ala 1967.
The reason for Israel unpreparedness for 1973 war was two fold:
1) The military belief that they could withstand the attack from the possible direct belligerents, Syria & Egypt, and that Jordan would not directly attack. As such their was no direct threat of annihilation of Israel.
2) The political decision that Israel could not be seen as an aggressor this time.

With Jordan in antagonist camp, the planning would be change to the preemptive attack. As Israel military planners knew that it was vulnerable to concentrated attack north wile also engaging in Eastern and Western theaters.
 

Cook

Banned
Hussein secretly flew to Tel Aviv and met with Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir to warn her of the coming attack on September 25, 1973. 11 days later, the Yom Kippar war started. What if King Hussein had not flown to Israel to warm them?

Since the Israeli's ignored Hussein's warning, just as they ignored the bulk of other intelligence indicating that war was imminent, this would have had no affect on events at all.
 
Yasser Arafat accepts the offer to be Prime Minister of Jordan as offered in OTL.

If Arafat becomes Jordanian PM, then the Israelis will treat Jordan as an enemy as opposed to a sometimes friend or neutral. It will completely change Israeli behavior far in advance of the war.
 

Wallet

Banned
If Arafat becomes Jordanian PM, then the Israelis will treat Jordan as an enemy as opposed to a sometimes friend or neutral. It will completely change Israeli behavior far in advance of the war.
Could Hussein play both sides?
 
Could Hussein play both sides?
Probably - right up until the moment where he has to declare war on Israel. If he doesn't, the Palestinians will rise up against him as a liar and a traitor, and if he does, well, the Israelis will know him for a liar with whom they are currently at war.
 
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