WI: King Henry II of England conquers Toulouse in 1159?

In 1159, King Henry II of England tried to depose Count Raymond V of Toulouse (who supposedly had a weak claim to the county) by right of his wife, Eleanor, who had a claim to Toulouse via her grandmother, Philippa, the daughter and only legitimate child of Count William IV of Toulouse, the eldest son of Count Pons. In addition, the County of Toulouse was, at the time, nominally part of the Duchy of Aquitaine.

IOTL, Henry besieged the city but ultimately withdrew because his feudal lord, King Louis VII of France, was in the city at the time visiting Raymond, his brother-in-law. But what if Louis hadn't been in the Toulouse at the time? How long could Henry have held onto the County Toulouse, or even the city itself?

Any thoughts?
 
His ability to hold the county of Toulouse would be near zero, he has problems with his sons. Maybe just the city?
 
His ability to hold the county of Toulouse would be near zero, he has problems with his sons. Maybe just the city?

It's 1159. His sons - Henry, Richard and Geoffrey - are either toddlers or infants, and at that point, there's no guarantee that they will turn out as they did IOTL. Just saying.
 
I don't see how the this little conquest is going to rewrite his sons. He's going to need to concentrate on Normandy and Anjou
 
In 1159, King Henry II of England tried to depose Count Raymond V of Toulouse (who supposedly had a weak claim to the county) by right of his wife, Eleanor, who had a claim to Toulouse via her grandmother, Philippa, the daughter and only legitimate child of Count William IV of Toulouse, the eldest son of Count Pons. In addition, the County of Toulouse was, at the time, nominally part of the Duchy of Aquitaine.

First, the Aquitain claim goes back as you said from Philippa. But the division of the Raimondine demesne was mostly enacted by the late will of Pons (II) that stressed the traditional male succession, and litterally stressed that if Guilhèm didn't produced an heir, Tolsan should go to the other count.
I specifically says other count, as Toulouse carried a tradition of co-lordship , as with Raimon IV being co-count of Toulouse as well as Count of Saint Gilles.

And, as such, it was accepted by everyone involved that Raimon took over : by Guilhèm, by local nobles, and so. The real opponents where Filippa and her husband, which wasn't that relevant until Raimon went into Crusade, allowing Guilhèm d'Aquitaine to invade Tolsan twice, metting with general hostility.

The claim was more or less forgotten, until Henri II married Alienor of Aquitaine.
I know there is a trend on this board (maybe due to a misplaced sense of historical-cultural bias) to assert that Plantagenet's claims were of most superior claims ever, but it's becoming really ridiculous at this point.

Then, no, the County of Toulouse wasn't nominally part of Aquitaine, not since the War of Succession of Auvergne in the Xth. Tolsan was rather its own thing, along with all the other lordship of Gothia (Languedoc) whom Raimondin held the ducal title (Aquitaine and Toulouse were roughly equal in prestige as Peers lords of France).
The reasons behind Henri II's campaigns were less to swallow up Toulouse, then trough an alliance with Raimond-Beranger of Barcelona (the whole Languedoc was undergoing what is sometimes called the Great Southern War (Grande Guerre Méridionale), or the Southern Hundered Years War; a multi-sided conflict between Raimondins and Barcelona, on which the Aquitain intervention was but a part) to enforce his rule deeper in Cadurcin and Tolsan, possibly forcing Raimon V (VII*) to acknowledge his suzerainty, which did happened (altough without real consequences) IOTL.

IOTL, Henry besieged the city but ultimately withdrew because his feudal lord, King Louis VII of France, was in the city at the time visiting Raymond, his brother-in-law.
While it played a really important part (both for legitimizing his rule, and his campaign that he certified was agreed upon by Louis VII), the unability to break the walls of the city, and the strong Capetian-Raimondin alliance (which marked the first time Capetians did enforced their suzerainty south of Loire) played as well.
Assuming that the "simple visit to my brother-in law since three months, not at all a display of power and supporting him with men and resources" doesn't take place, it's possible that Henry II would maintain the siege. But giving that Louis VII would have absolutely zero interest to feed Henry's assumptions that he authorized the campaign...

I doubt Henri would take Tolsan, and at the very best would be content with a more enforced suzerainty over Raimon than IOTL, keeping in mind that hommages and acknwoledgement of suzerainty in medieval Languedoc was more a political bargain chip, and extremely shifting compared to other areas : it was not at all uncommon to see a lord not only pledging alliegence to two, three, four suzerains in the same time or in succession in the matter of one generation.

Any victory by Henri II in the context of the Great Southern War would be short-lived, because the whole geopolitical situation was insanely complex : imagine a Hundered Years War, except main rivals sometimes allying to crush other lords complexity-scale. Oh, and with each side being divided in smaller sides. To not speak of the collegial lordship, which didn't prevented co-lords to fight each other on the lines of different alliegences. Oh, and the rise of municipal autonomies.
The wars of Henry and his sons are blessfully simple in comparison.

*Let's say that the list of Counts of Toulouse is full of wholes, and that the traditional list missed out two Raimonds and one Pons at least.
 
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