WI: King Edward II of Portugal?

Following on from this thread from 2013 (https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/king-for-a-day-duke-for-a-lifetime.296626/), how different would things be if Duarte (Edward), Duke of Guimarães (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infante_Duarte,_5th_Duke_of_Guimarães), had not died in 1576?

Firstly, the Portuguese Empire might not come under as much pressure from the English and Dutch as they did IOTL. The Spanish Armada might not sail, at least not in the it did IOTL. Being a Catholic, Duarte would be opposed to Queen Elizabeth in principle, and, through his descent from John of Gaunt, might have had a claim to the English throne. However, if Sebastian still dies the way he did IOTL, the Portuguese might be leery about future military actions.

At first I wondered if Cardinal Henry might still become king after Sebastian's death, but then I thought that, if Duarte was still alive, the Portuguese nobles might not be so desperate.

On the old thread, the general concensus was that Duarte II might marry one of Philip II of Spain's daughters - Isabella Eugenia Clara or Catherine Michelle. Personally, I'd be more inclined towards Catherine Michelle, and not just because of her portrait. It was mainly this:

Isabella Eugenia Clara was Philip II's eldest daughter, and, given Philip II's luck with sons, might have been in a position to become his heir. The Portuguese might have been fine with a Spanish king (at least in the beginning), but the Spanish might not have been receptive to a Portuguese king.

I'm not suggesting that Diego or OTL Philip III would both die. I'm just saying Philip II might have considered it a possibility. That, and there's the Hapsburgs' tendencies to keep their domains "in the family".

Finally, there's discussion on what sort of person Duarte was. He was supposedly one of the most influential nobles during the reigns of John III and Sebastian, had supported Sebastian's betrothal to Margaret of Valois, and he had accompanied Sebastian's first trip to Tangiers in 1574, so he was probably no stranger to battle. He also seemed to have a certain prestige due to being one of the last legitimate male descendants of King Manuel of Portugal, which seemed to be part of the reason for Sebastian's jealousy of Duarte.

Any other thoughts?
 
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Duarte II, King of Portugal (b.1541: d.1598) m. Catherine Michelle of Spain (b.1567: d.1597) (a)

1a) Manuel II, King of Portugal (b.1584: d.1631) m. Margherita Gonzaga (b.1591: d.1632) (a)

1a) Stillborn Boy (c.1606)

2a) Stillborn Boy (c.1607)

3a) Maria I of Portugal (b.1610)

4a) Stillborn Girl (c.1611)

5a) John IV, King of Portugal (b.1613: d.1632)

6a) Stillborn Girl (c.1615)​

2a) Duarte, Duke of Beja (b.1586) m. Magdalene of Bavaria (b.1587: d.1628) (a)

3a) Miscarriage (c.1587)

4a) Joan of Portugal (b.1588) m. Henri IV of France (b.1553: d.1612) (a)

1a) Louis, Dauphin of France (b.1605: d.1607)

2a) Henri V of France (b.1606)

3a) Elisabeth of France (b.1608)

4a) Miscarriage (c.1609)

5a) Gaston, Duke of Orleans (b.1611)

6a) Miscarriage (c.1613)​

5a) Luis, Duke of Guimarães (b.1590: d.1619)

6a) Isabella of Portugal (b.1591: d.1592)

7a) Miscarriage (c.1592)

8a) Enrique of Portugal, Archbishop of Braga (b.1594: d.1671)

9a) Catarina of Portugal (b.1596) m. Charles I of England (b.1600: d.1649) (a)

1a) Mary of England (b.1620)

2a) Charles II of England (b.1622)

3a) James Stuart, Duke of York (b.1625: d.1629)

4a) Anne of England (b.1626)

5a) Elizabeth of England (b.1628: d.1628)

6a) Henry Stuart, Duke of York (b.1630)

7a) Catherine of England (b.1631)​

10a) Miscarriage (c.1597)​
 
Actually, if Portugal does not unite with Spain we would have seen Luzon being independent because Luzon was revolting in mid-17th century, they would have not have that option if Portugal is independent, they would choose the spice trade over Luzon.
 
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Duarte II, King of Portugal (b.1541: d.1598) m. Catherine Michelle of Spain (b.1567: d.1597)
Seriously? The OP has mentioned potential changes in Portugal, Europe and the European empires. He's discussed Duarte as a king, and changes to the Spanish inheritance. Then he asked for thoughts.

Your response is a list of imaginary kids and grandkids, completely devoid of any context or meaning. But, no fear, with added stillbirths and miscarriages. Why? How does it further discussion in the slightest?
 
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Actually, if Portugal does not unite with Spain we would have seen Luzon being independent because Luzon was revolting in mid-17th century, they would have not have that option if Portugal is independent, they would choose the spice trade over Luzon.

Really? I wasn't aware of that. Would it potentially lead to a war between Spain and Portugal over the rest of the Philippines?
 
I've just thought of another interesting implication that could arise from this POD.

Say both Diego and OTL Philip III die before Philip II does, and Isabella Eugenia Clara marries one of HRE Rudolf II's younger brothers (say, Matthias). Would "Spain" pass to Isabella or her husband? The Crown of Castile (the dominant crown in the Spanish Empire) did not have a Salic law, but apparently the Crown of Aragon did.
 
Really? I wasn't aware of that. Would it potentially lead to a war between Spain and Portugal over the rest of the Philippines?

There were regional revolts, but nothing Spain couldn't handle.

Luzon is the heart of trade with China (Manila, the natural harbor and first major stop back to Acapulco), and it's literally named after the incumbent King of Spain. I do not believe Philip von Habsburg would sacrifice that for the sake of islands that were not his to begin with, and likely would not be his with a surviving Avis dynasty.
 
I've just thought of another interesting implication that could arise from this POD.

Say both Diego and OTL Philip III die before Philip II does, and Isabella Eugenia Clara marries one of HRE Rudolf II's younger brothers (say, Matthias). Would "Spain" pass to Isabella or her husband? The Crown of Castile (the dominant crown in the Spanish Empire) did not have a Salic law, but apparently the Crown of Aragon did.

Well, not exactly. The problem is that Aragon never had a single clear law of succession. Pretty much each king (and the only queen, Petronilla) had to state in their testaments how the succession should be, or during their lives they would make the courts recognize their heirs. In 1502 Ferdinand II made the Courts of Zaragoza recognize his daughter Joanna as "the primogenit of Aragon" during Ferdinand's life and also as their "queen and natural lady"after his death, taking the oath to obbey her and to be loyal to her and her husband. He did the same in 1503 in Barcelona. Finally, in 1516 his last will nominated again Joanna as hi heir. So, probably Philip II would arrange to Isabella be recognized as his heir in Aragon too.
 
I suppose, in broad terms, there would continue to be a rivalry between Portugal and Spain in the New World, to a greater extent than IOTL. This could go one of two ways: either the Spaniards end up with all of South America and Portugal goes back to being a relative backwater, potentially with greater focus on colonisation of Africa (coastal bits of Sub-Saharan, pushing into Swahili-speaking territories and more of India, I'm thinking). However, this is unlikely due to the endemic issues with the Spanish economic set-up, which means that their chances of doing any better than they did in America in territorial terms less plausible. However, it could be said that with more competition over the same types of resources in the same continent, both Spain and Portugal could become more efficient at extracting wealth from their transatlantic possessions. This puts South America on more of a level playing field to the Thirteen Colonies.

This is less macro, but with two countries both importing spices and precious metals and stuff, their competition with one another would reduce prices for the consumer, meaning that more people could afford to eat sugar, etc. in the 17th and 18th centuries, which might lead to some interesting cultural knock-ons. Additionally, with gold and silver being less associated with majestic wealth - and much less of a monopoly - prices would decrease and the aesthetic excesses of the Baroque style would be less evident. Quite simply, if everyone has a bit of gold, you don't need to cover your churches and palaces with the stuff. And with the low price of gold, perhaps paper money would be introduced later?
 
Well, not exactly. The problem is that Aragon never had a single clear law of succession. Pretty much each king (and the only queen, Petronilla) had to state in their testaments how the succession should be, or during their lives they would make the courts recognize their heirs. In 1502 Ferdinand II made the Courts of Zaragoza recognize his daughter Joanna as "the primogenit of Aragon" during Ferdinand's life and also as their "queen and natural lady"after his death, taking the oath to obbey her and to be loyal to her and her husband. He did the same in 1503 in Barcelona. Finally, in 1516 his last will nominated again Joanna as hi heir. So, probably Philip II would arrange to Isabella be recognized as his heir in Aragon too.

When Peter IV of Aragon, lacking a male heir, wanted to have her elder daughter Constanza and told so to the courts, he almost got a general rebellion led by his brother. Aragon had only one queen,the first, Petronilla ,and never repeated the trick, until Joan. I would say that women were not generally well liked as queens in Aragon if a male relative was around.
 
OP, sorry about my rather ill tempered intervention yesterday. You have posted an interesting PoD, deserving of actual comment. I can't promise great insight, or expertise, but I'll do my best to be of use.

I agree that Clara Michelle is the likeliest match, because otherwise, they'll be knee deep in the Spanish succession, causing just as many issues as happened OTL.

You point out the most obvious changes: with a remaining Portuguese royal succession, the Dutch and English will have a much harder job picking off the lower hanging Portuguese colonial possessions that they seized in OTL. On the other hand, as Mazda points out, there's Spanish competition to consider. In the main, though, I would expect the Portuguese Empire to emerge healthier than it did in OTL.

How does this effect the Spanish economy? If at least some of the mineral wealth of South America and the East Indian realms ends up in Lisbon, not Madrid, does that help keep the Spanish system on a more even keel?
 
Really? I wasn't aware of that. Would it potentially lead to a war between Spain and Portugal over the rest of the Philippines?
The Spanish did transfer the control of Mollucas, Celebes and Ternate to Portugal and partially abandoned efforts to fully control mindanao in order to secure Luzon, if the Spanish did not have the option, the Spanish had transferred the Spice Trade to Portugal which is in personal union with Spain, the Spanish would have less power to fight the rebellions in Luzon..

And aside from that there is a conflict between portugal and spain due to East Indies..

There were regional revolts, but nothing Spain couldn't handle.

Luzon is the heart of trade with China (Manila, the natural harbor and first major stop back to Acapulco), and it's literally named after the incumbent King of Spain. I do not believe Philip von Habsburg would sacrifice that for the sake of islands that were not his to begin with, and likely would not be his with a surviving Avis dynasty.

He would not sacrifice it but rather he would lose it due to a revolt...they even put soldiers in other parts of the indies in Mollucas, Celebes and Mindanao to stop the great revolt in Luzon in the mid-17th century..causing the Spanish to abandon their efforts in Mindanao if that is not an option..they would lose..
 
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The Spanish and Portuguese were never very squeamish about being knee deep in each other's successions. We have the precedent of the Infante Miguel 'da Paz' who was simultaneously named Prince of Portugal, Prince of Asturias and Prince of Girona following his birth in 1498. The prospect of uniting the Iberian crowns seems to have been welcomed as a positive one by the Catholic Monarchs and I'm inclined to think Philip II would feel similarly.

It's worth noting that King Duarte is the grandson of the Infanta Maria de Aragón, Philip's aunt. Descent from the Catholic Monarchs would probably make him more palatable and give the couple a very solid claim that male-line heirs (well, there weren't any, but males from the junior Austrian branch of the family) would have a very hard time sidelining them.
 
The Spanish and Portuguese were never very squeamish about being knee deep in each other's successions. We have the precedent of the Infante Miguel 'da Paz' who was simultaneously named Prince of Portugal, Prince of Asturias and Prince of Girona following his birth in 1498. The prospect of uniting the Iberian crowns seems to have been welcomed as a positive one by the Catholic Monarchs and I'm inclined to think Philip II would feel similarly.

It's worth noting that King Duarte is the grandson of the Infanta Maria de Aragón, Philip's aunt. Descent from the Catholic Monarchs would probably make him more palatable and give the couple a very solid claim that male-line heirs (well, there weren't any, but males from the junior Austrian branch of the family) would have a very hard time sidelining them.
Does it not rather depend upon whose teens the union occurs? You're no doubt more knowledgeable than me, but I got the impression that a Portuguese monarch inheriting the Spanish crowns might have a harder time than the reverse. Then again, even if that's true, he is closely related to the Spanish crown in his own right, so that might be mitigated.
 
The Spanish did transfer the control of Mollucas, Celebes and Ternate to Portugal and partially abandoned efforts to fully control mindanao in order to secure Luzon, if the Spanish did not have the option, the Spanish had transferred the Spice Trade to Portugal which is in personal union with Spain, the Spanish would have less power to fight the rebellions in Luzon..

And aside from that there is a conflict between portugal and spain due to East Indies..

He would not sacrifice it but rather he would lose it due to a revolt...they even put soldiers in other parts of the indies in Mollucas, Celebes and Mindanao to stop the great revolt in Luzon in the mid-17th century..causing the Spanish to abandon their efforts in Mindanao if that is not an option..they would lose..

Or, the union of the crowns only made Portugal and Spain weak, resting on its laurels and leaving the whole empire to rot. With the first two global empires under a single person, there is no need to have so many colonies.

With conflict instead of union, the Spaniards may even end up putting more men into the Philippines.
 
Does it not rather depend upon whose teens the union occurs? You're no doubt more knowledgeable than me, but I got the impression that a Portuguese monarch inheriting the Spanish crowns might have a harder time than the reverse. Then again, even if that's true, he is closely related to the Spanish crown in his own right, so that might be mitigated.

Most likely the Infanta Isabella would be Queen in her own right, and since she was both sane and capable she would be another Isabella the Catholic instead of a Juana la Loca. Duarte might share the throne with her, I suppose, but his power would be predicated on cooperation and union with her. As you say, he is himself closely related to the Spanish bloodline which would make his presence and interference easier to swallow than some completely foreign husband (even an Austrian with Spanish blood, I'd say).
 
You make several sensible points there. I tend to forget that the Catholic monarchs were still rulers in their item rights on their own kingdoms, as well as joint rulers of Spain. Their union would, presumably, be the template for any Portuguese-Spanish union.
 
Or, the union of the crowns only made Portugal and Spain weak, resting on its laurels and leaving the whole empire to rot. With the first two global empires under a single person, there is no need to have so many colonies.

With conflict instead of union, the Spaniards may even end up putting more men into the Philippines.

I think the Spanish would focus on Mollucas and Celebes and abandon Luzon in order to tap into the Spice Trade, which would be more sustainable to the Manila-Alcapulco route and the Tabacco Monopoly in Luzon because Luzon very rebellious..
 
I see Isabella as more likely match for Duarte and Catalina proposed to either the Emperor or one of his brothers...
The Spanish rule about royal matches at that time was Portugal first and if you are the King of Spain with two daughters, bad luck with male heirs and wish marry one of them to the Emperor and the other to the King of Portugal the easier way to keep your kingdom and succession stable is marrying the eldest to Portugal and the youngest to your Austrian kins
 
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