WI King Baldwin IV is captured by Saladin in 1177?

On 10 June 1177 from the eastern side of the coastal range, the Crusader's army saw Saladin's tents in the distance. Baldwin and his nobles decided to descend to the plain and attack at once. As the Frankish army moved downhill, the mounted troops soon outstripped the foot soldiers. After a few hour delay, the Latin army reassembled, then encountered the Saracen raiding forces, who were returning from their forays. The Crusaders easily defeated these Muslim soldiers.
Believing the battle won, the Franks let their guard down. Raymond's knights and Odo of St Amand's Templars moved onto some high ground between the Marj Ayyun and the Litani River. The Latin infantry rested from their hurried march earlier in the day.
Suddenly, Saladin's main army pounced on the Crusaders. Unprepared for battle, the Franks were badly beaten. Observers of the time blamed the defeat on Odo of St Amand, who was captured in the battle. King Baldwin barely escaped capture. Unable to mount a horse because of his crippling disease, he was carried to safety by a knight as his bodyguard cut a path through the Saracens. Many Frankish survivors of the struggle fled to shelter at Beaufort Castle about five miles southwest of the battlefield.
WI Saladin had captured Baldwin IV then? What impact does this have in the Kingdom of Jerusalem? Sibylla was recently widowed and pregnant and Isabella was still a minor... How possible is that a succession crisis erupts? Could Raymond III of Tripoli staged a coup d' etat and claim the throne for himself or his allies the d'Ibelin's? How is this altering History? Any thoughts?
 
Baldwin IV

Saladin would probably have demanded a really huge ransom for his release. The capure of the king may have started a strong reaction in the west, which could have led to the Third Crusade setting out earlier. I don't see the succession turning out any differently though.
 
Saladin would probably have demanded a really huge ransom for his release. The capure of the king may have started a strong reaction in the west, which could have led to the Third Crusade setting out earlier. I don't see the succession turning out any differently though.

Well if the ransom payment is huge enough the Nobles in Jerusalme might have elected another King to replace Baldwin... Baldwin d' Ibelin could have made his bid for power then with the support of Raymond III...
 
Baldwin IV

A reagent would have taken over. I don't think that a new king would have been taken power. Is Sybilla's first husband still alive at this period? The reason for that marriage was to establish a new dynasty after the death of Baldwin IV. The rival factions that came into play after the death of Baldwin IV were not that strongly divided in 1177.
 
Well if the ransom payment is huge enough the Nobles in Jerusalme might have elected another King to replace Baldwin... Baldwin d' Ibelin could have made his bid for power then with the support of Raymond III...

I have to agree, there wouldn't be a new king. They'd have to at least pay lip service to the old one. You can't just let someone capture your king and then ignore it. It isn't done. :D

That being said... This may actually be better for the Kingdom in the long run. If they elect a strong regent who is actually able to unify the various factions at court, then perhaps they'll have a chance of avoiding war (and thus destruction; I don't think it would actually be possible for the Crusaders to beat Saladin at this point).
 
I have to agree, there wouldn't be a new king. They'd have to at least pay lip service to the old one. You can't just let someone capture your king and then ignore it. It isn't done. :D

That being said... This may actually be better for the Kingdom in the long run. If they elect a strong regent who is actually able to unify the various factions at court, then perhaps they'll have a chance of avoiding war (and thus destruction; I don't think it would actually be possible for the Crusaders to beat Saladin at this point).

Even with a Regent we have to eliminate somehow Guy de Lusignan and mainly Reynald de Chatillon...
The first is an easy task... just have William de Montferrat live longer... Raymond de Chatillon was a pain in the ass aand he has to be removed in order not to cause troubles to the Regent... An assassin hired by the d'Ibelin's perhaps??
 
I have to agree, there wouldn't be a new king. They'd have to at least pay lip service to the old one. You can't just let someone capture your king and then ignore it. It isn't done. :D

If Baldwin IV isn't treated well he may die however, which would then bring all the factional disputes to a rather quick head. Of course, the Muslim doctors were better than the Christian ones of the era (though I think the Eastern Latins used Eastern doctors anyway) and Saladin certainly wouldn't want his most valuable prisoner to die.

That being said... This may actually be better for the Kingdom in the long run. If they elect a strong regent who is actually able to unify the various factions at court, then perhaps they'll have a chance of avoiding war (and thus destruction; I don't think it would actually be possible for the Crusaders to beat Saladin at this point).

Raymond III of Tripoli would probably have become regent, since he had already occupied the office before Baldwin IV's majority. William de Montferrat OTL died the same month that Baldwin IV was nearly (in this ATL was) captured. So Raymond of Tripoli is going to be in a position to pick her new husband. So in 1177 or 78 (probably as soon after William's posthomous child is born as possible) she will be married to Baldwin d'Ibelin.

I think that Raymond will be in no hurry to pay Baldwin IV's ransom, since it appears from my reading of the history that they didn't share the same foriegn policy. Baldwin IV on achieving his majority rejected a treaty with Saladin that Raymond had negotiated, and instead attacked Saladin.

The ransom will probably be paid by the Byzantine Emperor Manuel, who had established good relations with the Kingdom of Jerusalem and ransomed several prominent Latin noblemen over the years. Ransoming the King of Jerusalem would certainly put the Kingdom further into his debt and generate a lot of good publicity in the West.

Raymond will probably be able to renew the treaty he negotiated with Saladin, and marry Sibylla to Baldwin, before Baldwin IV is released (following Manuel's paying of the ransom). So I think that even after Baldwin is released Raymond probably won't give up his position as the actual ruler of Jerusalem. Baldwin IV's leprosy will be more advanced, plus he will have been out of government for a number of years, and Raymond's allies control the royal succession (Baldwin d'Ibelin chief among them).
 
Could Raymond III and Baldwin d'Ibelin declare Baldwin IV deposed and proclaim Sibylla Queen? Or is it too far fetched???
 
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