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On the 9th of October, 1934, King Alexander I of Yugoslavia arrived in Marseille to start a state visit to France, one that, if everything went well, would've gone to Paris, and would've ended with a brief visit to Britain, where he'd see his son, future king Peter II, in Surrey. The main purpose of this visit was to reconcile differences between Yugoslavia and Italy as a prerequisite to drawing Italy into a security pact with the countries of the Little Entente, brokered and guaranteed by France, the biggest issue between the two countries being the sharp issue of Italian claims on parts of Yugoslavia, territories Italy was promised under the 1915 Treaty of London.

Prior to this point, the Ustaše, still merely a terrorist organization with Italian governmental support, and minor support in Yugoslavia proper, was organizing a plot with its affiliates in Italy, Bulgaria and Hungary, to assassinate the King during his visit in France. Men would be stationed in all the cities the King was expected to visit, and the men would enter the country unarmed before being supplied with their tools by the Ustaše, provided by Stana Godina, the Blue Femme.

Arriving in Marseille, the Yugoslav accompaniment was lighter due to budgetary issues on the side of the Yugoslav police, guarantees on the French side that security would largely be handled by them, and a belief that French policemen were of higher quality than Yugoslav ones (despite lack of interest in handling the emerging-though-underdetailed info that the Ustaše were on French soil). On the French side, the administration of the City of Marseille was opposed with some of the planned security that was supposed to be implemented, such as having snipers (which would've caused paranoia in the crowd), using a armored car (which would've disallowed the people from seeing the king, opting instead for a nicer-looking and slower car), and having more men follow alongside the car (opting instead for only two men on horseback). Prior to boarding the port, the King was even offered a vest in case of an assassination, which he rejected.

With all these poor security precautions in mind, it almost seemed inevitable something would mess up and allow Vlado Chernozemski to just walk up to the car and just shoot those inside, just as it happened when the men on horseback got too far ahead.

But what if the Yugoslav accompaniment wasn't as light, or the City of Marseille implemented more of the planned security, or even if the King had chosen to put on the vest - what if King Alexander I of Yugoslavia (and all those who died, or were merely wounded, alongside him, like French Foreign Minister Louis Barthou) wasn't assassinated? This obviously means he also doesn't get shot in Paris or in Surrey either.
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