What if Kim Jong Un, while still acting as President of the DPRK, defected to the South to avoid an internal assassination plot?
What would be the immediate political ripple effects in both the South and the North?
May China intervene?
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What if Kim Jong Un, while still acting as President of the DPRK, defected to the South to avoid an internal assassination plot?
What would be the immediate political ripple effects in both the South and the North?
May China intervene?
The first is possible, depending on the circumstances of his defection. The rest however...He's put in prison by the South Koreans, and tried in the Hague.
North Korea collapses, and is potentially carved up between the PRC and South Korea.
First, this is supremely unlikely to occur.
The first is possible, depending on the circumstances of his defection. The rest however...
North Korea is unlikely to collapse; Western analysts have been predicting a North Korean collapse for decades, but it still hasn't come. The main powerbrokers in the country are intact, and there are other members of the Kim family that can serve as a replacement figurehead. By most scholarly analysis (and based on what high-level refugees from the country have experienced and written about), Kim Jong Un is (very likely) a figurehead for Kim Jong Il's "old boys club" and circle of close friends. The main effect of his defection is destabilize internal NK politics and presents a major PR disaster, but this can be glossed over and recovered from, given the level of control within the country. A collapsing NK threatens the interests of the country's ruling oligarchy and military, which is why no one in power will push for it. As there is no independent civil society in the country or media accesss, there is no effective method for any major revolutionary or resistance movements to spring up (coupled with relative isolation).
Also, even if North Korea does collapse, the PRC will not annex a square foot of the country. Why in blazes would it? It has no territorial aspirations or claims on the country, and needlessly antagonizes the United States (one), has annexed a likely hostile and backwards parcel of land of small economic worth, and needlessly strains relations with Seoul, which Beijing has been working to peel from US influence, with some success. Largely due to recent historical revisionism issues and friction between Seoul and Tokyo (which was "resolved" recently, but time will tell), and the (generally accurate) feeling in Seoul that when push comes to shove, the US will choose to side with Tokyo over Seoul.
Depending on the regional political climate, Beijing may be entirely willing to assent to reunification (and far enough into the future, participate in/coordinate with Korean-American plans to stabilize the country in the event of a collapse), provided US forces in Korea are withdrawn, as their stated purpose, after all, was to assist South Korea against North Korea. If this occurs in the immediate future, it is unlikely (Beijing will look on any moves towards reunification or regime change as a grab for regional influence), but in a few decades, it becomes a possibility. The preferred outcome for Beijing in the immediate future, provided such a collapse occurred, would simply be to assent to (or cooperate in) the removal of WMDs and nuclear stockpiles, while re-instating a new North Korean government under Chinese influence.
Current scholarly discussion within Chinese academia, ever since Xi Jinping's ascension, has moved away from a traditionally positive outlook of North Korea in East Asian geopolitics towards and increasingly critical one (ranging from disapproval with their nuclear weapons program, to the view of North Korea as a dangerous, destabilizing force in the region). Indeed, Xi Jinping has not graced North Korea with a visit since he came into office, and it was only in October that a high level Chinese official visited the country since that time (in sharp contrast to the regular meetings of the Hu Jintao era).
EDIT:
If you want to learn more about North Korea,
http://38north.org/
This is a regularly updated "blog" of sorts, run and operated by the US-Korea Institute at SAIS (John Hopkins), and the contributors are all North Korean specialists.
Additionally, while Kim Jong Un is a figurehead, it does not mean he himself it not complicit and invested in the continuation of the North Korean state. We do not KNOW his personal views on the matter outside of his preference for Western luxuries and entertainment.
To a degree. But it really comes down to who is part of the main North Korean clique, and how the byzantine, closed-door political winds blow.I bow to your greater knowledge, and leave further speculation to you.
But it makes sense that Kim Jong-un would mostly be a figurehead. After all, he's too young to be a seasoned political leader, and I imagine the military has monolithic influence in North Korea's circles of power.
Indeed they do; but economic interests do not necessitate annexation when a similar arrangement can be made with South Korea (at worst), or with a new North Korean puppet-state (more ideal), or even imported overseas from one of the many developing markets China has increasingly worked to exploit (see: the Silk Road Initiative and Chinese investments in South America and Africa).The PRC has extensive interests in the DPRK. The DPRK has massive mineral resources valued at trillions of dollars, and is the world's largest exporter of anthracite coal, the highest quality type.
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What if Kim Jong Un, while still acting as President of the DPRK, defected to the South to avoid an internal assassination plot?
What would be the immediate political ripple effects in both the South and the North?
May China intervene?
snip