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Basically I'm proposing a Midway-style scenario. The US carriers for whatever reason manage to return while the Japanese are launching the second wave of the attack on Pearl Harbor. With most of the Japanese planes away the US carriers catch the Japanese fleet off guard and manage to sink between 3-6 Japanese carriers. The US line of battle is still gutted but the USN has also just gained naval superiority. Also let's assume that the rest of the Japanese operations (like the invasions of the Philippines and Malaya) go off as they did OTL.
The USN isn't in the best position to go charging across the Pacific and the Japanese still have enough battleships to maintain dominance in the Western Pacific until the USN shows up in force. Do the Japanese try to surrender with lenient terms? How long does it take the US to attempt a relief of the Philippines? Does Force Z fare any better or is it still sunk by land-based bombers? Basically how does the war play out from here?