WI Khomeini's plane crashed?

Inspired by a comment by Leo Caesius (with due credit to him), what would happen if the Ayatollah's plane crashed en route to Tehran?
 
I've run a scenario in my head, which included this, myself, thinking it would give the marxists in Iran a pretty good chance to take over the country. Does this seem plausible?
 
I think with Khomeini death in plane crash
the Iran islamic revolution miss a Leader
that start conflicts about question who gona lead the revolution.
wat menaces to turn into civil war
in end the Iranian Military gona crush islamic revolution
 
So can I quote you on believing that plane crashes are caused by extraterrestrials?


:D Gold.

A dead Khomeni might mean a far more chaotic Revolution. I know only a little on the events of '79 but I remember reading the military brass had totally lost the will to defend the Shah's regime so I doubt a counter-revolution and follow-up Junta.

You have the Marxist/Left-wing Nationalist movements that might come to dominate but if anything will get the Military to pick up and crack down it's Commies.

A lazy part of my brain is seeing a possible Afghanistan writ large playing out in Iran. The Tudeh come to power in Tehran as a broad revolutionary force. Slowly they crack down and become more doctrinaire in their Marxist-Leninist dogma, angering Islamists and democrats alike. The People's Repulic is formed, bandits take to the hills, Soviet arms roll in, the CIA starts paying visits to certain Islamic student groups etc.

However unlike Afghanistan, Iran has far more going for it to warrant Soviet aid. Its oil refinaries for a start, not to mention the much coveted Indian Ocean access. However its also far larger and alot more likely to get US aid rolling into rebel hands. Will Iran's more urban, secular population aid the regime or encourage more mass, peaceful opposition like in Eastern Europe?

Afghanistan will become a sideshow, meaning almost certainly no Stinger missiles for the Mujahadeen. Iraq will be in a wierd position. Saddam will remain firmly in the US camp. He wont dare invade Iran now meaning no decade long war, meaning no economic drive to seize Kuwait. However the CIA will be keen for their man in Baghdad to act against the Reds next door. Saudi money will flow like a burst dam into rebel Iranian hands.

Would be very interesting to see if the pros of a Red Iran will help prop up the Soviet Union or will the cons only help hurry its fall along?
 
Well, I would much rather have Marxists at this point than the Ayatollah. At least Marxism attempts to be tolerant, the Ayatollah hates too many people.
 
Once read a short TL about the United States avoiding involvement in Afghanistan leading to a Soviet victory. The USSR still crumbles but in a more controlled manner by 1993 (the stans remain as autonomous states in a new Union). Afghanistan ends up very much like the 'stans of OTL, a mostly secular, pseudo-socialist republic run by some Party and military strong men. Hardly paradise but in far better knick than we know it today.

Just popped into my head, but yeah if Iran's Red Govt. can hold on against an Islamist backlash, we might see democratisation by the mid-90s as the Communist Bloc crumbles.

TBF Afghanistan despite Soviet withdrawl almost managed such a transition (to a secular strongman state, not democracy). It was only some lucky breaks for the Taliban and infighting in Kabul that finally saw Afghanistan fall to the Islamists in the early 1990s.
 
For Khomeini to die like this at such a critical juncture would create an inexhaustible pool of conspiracy theories. Whether the fingers are pointed at Washington or Moscow would depend on subsequent developments.

Saddam will remain firmly in the US camp. He wont dare invade Iran now meaning no decade long war, meaning no economic drive to seize Kuwait. However the CIA will be keen for their man in Baghdad to act against the Reds next door.

Saddam wasn't in the US camp, he didn't even have diplomatic relations with the United States until 1984. Saddam Hussein was a Soviet client and viewed Israel and the Shah of Iran as his greatest adversaries. At one point there was even a US-Iranian effort to back the Iraqi Kurds against him.

TBF Afghanistan despite Soviet withdrawl almost managed such a transition (to a secular strongman state, not democracy). It was only some lucky breaks for the Taliban and infighting in Kabul that finally saw Afghanistan fall to the Islamists in the early 1990s.

Kabul didn't fall to the Taliban, it fell to the mujahideen 2 years before the Taliban were established.
 
there also those rumors in French's media
one: that French's officials ask "has to happen some thing to plane ?"
two: that pro-Shah F-14 Pilots were ready to shoot down the plane.
but the Shah refused those offers

i don't know if those story are true, but they make good POD
 
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