In January 1989, the Ayatollah Khomeini wrote an open letter to Mikhail Gorbachev. In the letter, Khomeini applauded Gorbachev for recognising the need for reform within the USSR and for supposedly seeing the ways that Marxism was insufficient as an ideology. However, he warned that, the way things were going, Communism might be replaced by liberal capitalism in the USSR, which would be equally disastrous. Therefore, the Ayatollah proposed that Gorbachev consider embracing Islam, both as a religion and a political ideology; Islam is, of course, a divine truth, and political Islam provides a spiritual element necessary for society, which the strict materialism of Communism and Capitalism both deny.
Naturally, the intention behind this letter was probably for propaganda purposes within Iran, pointing out that the great Soviet Union had been unable to stand up to Western imperialism while the Islamic Republic endures. It was controversial within Iran, however -- within the letter, the Ayatollah cites Sunni thinkers like ibn 'Arabi, Avicenna, and al-Farabi as sources for Iran's political ideology, which the more sectarian elements of the Shia ulema found objectionable.
Of course, Gorbachev never converted to Islam (as far as we know; if Allah hath judged Secretary Gorbachev among the faithful, well, I suppose we'll find out on the Day of Judgement). And I find it extremely unlikely for the USSR to replace Communism with political Islam as its foundational ideology; that'd take a miracle from Allah, or ASB.
However, the collapse of the USSR and the early days of the Russian Federation + the other post-Soviet states were periods of great social and cultural turmoil. This happened concurrently with the Soviet evacuation from Afghanistan in February 1989 (about a month after Khomeini sent his letter) and the Afghan Civil War, which led to the establishment of the first Taliban government in Afghanistan. Is it possible, in the context of great social upheaval, for there to be a new popular interest in Islam among disaffected Russian youths, as an alternative to both Capitalism and Communism? Maybe Islam would become more popular in Russia in the 1990s, after Capitalism failed to meet expectations in Russia. Maybe a Chechen victory in the 1994-1996 conflict, coupled with the memory of the war in Afghanistan, could be seen as miraculous proof of Islam to some Russians. I don't foresee Russia ever becoming a Muslim-majority country, but maybe Russian Muslims could be something like Black American Muslims, like Malcolm X or Muhammad Ali -- a minority religious movement, with wider political goals expressed as part of their religious identity. This is to say nothing of the Tatars, Bashkirs, or other Muslim minorities within Russia or other former Soviet states, of course.
Of course, I would imagine Khomeini's letter might have a greater impact on the former Soviet states of Central Asia and the Caucasus, especially since Khomeini expressed sympathy for Sunni theologians and political thinkers. Socialism was popular in Iran, too -- while secular socialist or Marxist parties were banned, "Islamic Socialism" remained a popular ideology, and thinkers like Ali Shariati were foundational to the Iranian Revolution. Perhaps, if the new Central Asian republics modeled themselves after Iran as well as the USSR, this could lead to a reconciliation between Iranian leftists and the Islamist regime, and possibly direct Iran's foreign policy more strongly against the monarchies of the Gulf.
I don't know what this would mean for Iraq, which was ostensibly secular-socialist but which used religious rhetoric a lot, especially in the Iran-Iraq War and the First Gulf War. I doubt either Saddam Hussein or the Ayatollah Khomeini would be interested in reconciliation, but if Iran was engaging more actively with the former Soviet Union, and if Iraq was still subject to the same sanctions as OTL after the First Gulf War, they might be forced to reconcile by circumstance. This reconciliation might be facilitated by Syria -- a Baathist country like Iraq, but also one with longstanding ties to Iran.
So, what do you all think? Cheers, all!
Naturally, the intention behind this letter was probably for propaganda purposes within Iran, pointing out that the great Soviet Union had been unable to stand up to Western imperialism while the Islamic Republic endures. It was controversial within Iran, however -- within the letter, the Ayatollah cites Sunni thinkers like ibn 'Arabi, Avicenna, and al-Farabi as sources for Iran's political ideology, which the more sectarian elements of the Shia ulema found objectionable.
Of course, Gorbachev never converted to Islam (as far as we know; if Allah hath judged Secretary Gorbachev among the faithful, well, I suppose we'll find out on the Day of Judgement). And I find it extremely unlikely for the USSR to replace Communism with political Islam as its foundational ideology; that'd take a miracle from Allah, or ASB.
However, the collapse of the USSR and the early days of the Russian Federation + the other post-Soviet states were periods of great social and cultural turmoil. This happened concurrently with the Soviet evacuation from Afghanistan in February 1989 (about a month after Khomeini sent his letter) and the Afghan Civil War, which led to the establishment of the first Taliban government in Afghanistan. Is it possible, in the context of great social upheaval, for there to be a new popular interest in Islam among disaffected Russian youths, as an alternative to both Capitalism and Communism? Maybe Islam would become more popular in Russia in the 1990s, after Capitalism failed to meet expectations in Russia. Maybe a Chechen victory in the 1994-1996 conflict, coupled with the memory of the war in Afghanistan, could be seen as miraculous proof of Islam to some Russians. I don't foresee Russia ever becoming a Muslim-majority country, but maybe Russian Muslims could be something like Black American Muslims, like Malcolm X or Muhammad Ali -- a minority religious movement, with wider political goals expressed as part of their religious identity. This is to say nothing of the Tatars, Bashkirs, or other Muslim minorities within Russia or other former Soviet states, of course.
Of course, I would imagine Khomeini's letter might have a greater impact on the former Soviet states of Central Asia and the Caucasus, especially since Khomeini expressed sympathy for Sunni theologians and political thinkers. Socialism was popular in Iran, too -- while secular socialist or Marxist parties were banned, "Islamic Socialism" remained a popular ideology, and thinkers like Ali Shariati were foundational to the Iranian Revolution. Perhaps, if the new Central Asian republics modeled themselves after Iran as well as the USSR, this could lead to a reconciliation between Iranian leftists and the Islamist regime, and possibly direct Iran's foreign policy more strongly against the monarchies of the Gulf.
I don't know what this would mean for Iraq, which was ostensibly secular-socialist but which used religious rhetoric a lot, especially in the Iran-Iraq War and the First Gulf War. I doubt either Saddam Hussein or the Ayatollah Khomeini would be interested in reconciliation, but if Iran was engaging more actively with the former Soviet Union, and if Iraq was still subject to the same sanctions as OTL after the First Gulf War, they might be forced to reconcile by circumstance. This reconciliation might be facilitated by Syria -- a Baathist country like Iraq, but also one with longstanding ties to Iran.
So, what do you all think? Cheers, all!
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