WI: Khomeini Assassinated in Najaf?

The phone rings in the main office of the Presidential Palace in Baghdad. Newly “appointed” president, Saddam Hussein, answers it.

“Hello”?

“Salaam Saddam, it’s me”.

Saddam instantly recognizes the soft spoken voice, and tries to conceal his annoyance.

“What can I do for you, Mohammad Reza”?

Iran and Iraq had been in strained relations throughout the sixties and seventies, largely over disputed claims regarding the Arvand Rud/Shatt al-Arab waterway. The two had strategically backed armed insurgent groups against each other, with Iran supporting the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga and Iraq supporting Arab separatists in the Iranian province of Khuzestan. Saddam personally met with the Shah in Algiers to sign a diplomatic treaty to end informal hostilities, and now the two now have ostensibly a more amicable relationship. Yet in secret, Saddam has not taken his eyes off the “Persian menace”.

The Shah answers.

“You’ve probably seen the news the past few months. Thing are getting worse here, and for the first time, I’m not sure if I have the ability to control the demonstrations breaking out across the country. They’re all chanting for that bearded rat Khomeini! I know he’s there in Najaf making his seditious speeches about me”.

Saddam senses where this conversation is headed.

“Can you get rid of him for me, Saddam”?

“You want him dead”?

The Shah suddenly hesitates. Initially, he meant for Saddam to exile him out of Iraq. Somewhere far away, where he wouldn’t be as much a nuisance. But now he begins to consider the thought of having him dead entirely. If he kills him, he’ll likely turn Khomeini into a martyr, a new Imam Hussain to his treacherous and corrupt Yazid, and may only inflame the revolutionary agitation inside his country. But if he doesn’t, there’s the chance that Khomeini may one day return to Iran and seize power for himself and his Velayat-e Faqih. The Shah takes the plunge.

“Yes. Can you make it happen”?

Saddam believes the final days of the Shah’s regime are counting down, and that he’ll pick up the pieces from a crumbling Iran.

“Of course, I’ll send a Republican Guard agent to terminate that man from Qom, once and for all”.

So what happens next? If the Shah is still forced to flee Iran by early 1979, who takes power afterward? Does the more democratic Bakhtiar government established as a caretaker regime for the Shah hold onto power without being pressured by Khomeini, or does it too collapse under the weight of internal pressures? Do the revolutionary, theocratic minded clerics like Ayatollah Beheshti and Montazeri come out on top in place of Khomeini, or do the Islamic liberals and secular nationalists like Mehdi Bazargan and Karim Sanjabi prevail in forming a largely secular, democratic republic?
 
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My guess is we get a less popular version of OTL's islamic republic. My guess is things go largely as OTL until 2009 when the protests succeed in overthrowing the islamists unlike OTL.
 

samcster94

Banned
My guess is we get a less popular version of OTL's islamic republic. My guess is things go largely as OTL until 2009 when the protests succeed in overthrowing the islamists unlike OTL.
I can see that. I also think an interesting POD would be the guy Khomeini fired in 1989(have Ruhollah die early) and Iran opens up more early(he was a Deng type figure).
 
The thing to remember the Iranian Revolution was a long thing coming thanks to the Shah ticking off everyone left and right, the conservatives to religious political factions in part of his reforms and in part of his autocratic rule that grew day by day. However, as said, the the Islamic radicals only took power because the moderates let them, and the Islamics only came to power thanks to Ayatollah Khomenini coming back to Iran/was still alive by 1978-1979.

With Saddam killing Khomenini, the Islamics lose their focus.

I don't think Iran would go Red. The Tudeh was not popular with the middle classes given how far left they was, and SAVAK smacking them down since the ealry 70s didn't help them. (And they was just too much of a puppet of Moscow to act Independently.)

With this, you can see Iran become a secular, democratic republic lead a by National Front coalition government. (While dealing with civil strife cause by the tension of between the traditional Muslims, conservative Islamists and the Western oriented elite and middle class for a while.)

(It still likely cost Jimmy Carter reelection as any revolution will still raises oil prices, and with a dismal economy and Soviets pouring into Afghanistan, and a GOP lead by a charismatic Republican with new ideas, he's just doom. 76 was a poisoned chalice.)

You can even have a reformed Imperial Iran survive, albeit a very constitutional monarchy à la Britain, if you play the cards right. (Although that would be a tall order.)

Also, no Iran-Iraq War. Big affects right there. (If there is one, Iraq would be destroyed with a Iran heavily armed with American weaponry and without the purges.)
 
@Historyman 14 , I think you’re ultimately right. If Khomeini is bumped off, he’ll undoubtedly be turned into a martyr for the revolution. Though, even if other likeminded Islamists who were close to Khomeini cite themselves as being in the same vein of the late imam, they lack the charisma and political background (Khomeini cut his teeth as a prominent anti-Shah figure during the 15 Khordad protests) that Khomeini had.

So it may be a bit more of a free-for-all initially, but I think that Mehdi Bazargan and his Freedom Movement party will come out on top. Given that they were arguably the most well-organized opposition group in 1978 and had already abandoned any notion of accommodating with a constitutional monarchy, which the National Front still tepidly supported until the last months of the Shah’s regime.

So by the time the Shah leaves as OTL, Bazargan refuses to recognize the weak Bakhtiar premiership as having a legitimate mandate, and when it likewise crumbles, he forms a national transitional council, incorporating various repressed parties during the Shah, to create a draft constitution for the new republic, which will still have Islam as the nominal state religion.
 
@Historyman 14 , I think you’re ultimately right. If Khomeini is bumped off, he’ll undoubtedly be turned into a martyr for the revolution. Though, even if other likeminded Islamists who were close to Khomeini cite themselves as being in the same vein of the late imam, they lack the charisma and political background (Khomeini cut his teeth as a prominent anti-Shah figure during the 15 Khordad protests) that Khomeini had.

So it may be a bit more of a free-for-all initially, but I think that Mehdi Bazargan and his Freedom Movement party will come out on top. Given that they were arguably the most well-organized opposition group in 1978 and had already abandoned any notion of accommodating with a constitutional monarchy, which the National Front still tepidly supported until the last months of the Shah’s regime.

So by the time the Shah leaves as OTL, Bazargan refuses to recognize the weak Bakhtiar premiership as having a legitimate mandate, and when it likewise crumbles, he forms a national transitional council, incorporating various repressed parties during the Shah, to create a draft constitution for the new republic, which will still have Islam as the nominal state religion.

Eh, that depends on how though. Just because he is killed, doesn't mean that he would be martyred if played right. Maybe the whole thing is made to look like an accident or maybe something somewhat mundane. Heck, it'd be difficult tomartyr him if it was made to look like he instigated something or escalated something like a fight.

Beyond that, I have no clue. Remember, other nations will see this as their opportunity to influence Iran and maybe the US will see the writing on the wall sooner and try and come to an agreement.
 
Eh, that depends on how though. Just because he is killed, doesn't mean that he would be martyred if played right. Maybe the whole thing is made to look like an accident or maybe something somewhat mundane. Heck, it'd be difficult tomartyr him if it was made to look like he instigated something or escalated something like a fight.

Beyond that, I have no clue. Remember, other nations will see this as their opportunity to influence Iran and maybe the US will see the writing on the wall sooner and try and come to an agreement.

I mention Saddam making him 'disappear' in the other thread. I am sure a lot of people would cry foul people no matter how you do it, but it would ease the blow.

It would rise eyebrows, but it would be mostly OTL till later. Carter and the USA dropped the ball on the whole Revolution and it was one of the biggest surprises that happened. (Reaction to Khomeini won't change that.)
 
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