WI: Kholkin Gol spreads into war

1. Why would the US be at war with Germany in 1942? Just saying it doesn't make it true, hell if Hitler didn't declare war himself on the US after Pearl they wouldn't have been at war in the first place and for the US Congress to pass a declaration of war against Germany without an initial declaration is dubious.

I'm sorry for all, but I'm pretty sure that the USA declaration of war against Germany was only a matter of time in December 1941. And the sinking of too much US merchant ship or the attack and the sinking of an US Navy ship will be the reason for FDR to declare war against Germany. This will probably happend in 1942, spring or summer...

And the changes of this TL don't affect the decision of FDR to make war against Germany.

There will be no Pacific War because the Japanese are fighting a war against China and the SU and they will not attacked new ennemies : western allies or the USA. But the war in Europe and Africa will happend as in OTL.

2. The US didn't declare war on Germany for its submarine attacks on its shipping in the Atlantic, why would it declare war on Japan for doing the same in the Pacific, not only that but its absurd to think the Vladivostok route would actually be usable in the face of a IJN blockade, in the Pacific the convoys won't have just submarines to worry about like in the Atlantic, the entire Japanese fleet will be hunting them down. Trying to run a blockade in the middle of 2 foreign power's war and then crying because your ships get sunked is stupid.

I'm sorry your POD is completely seperated from OTL facts.

In OTL :

In 1941, the US Navy ships escorted Allied convoys and opened fire upon German ships or submarines if they attacked Allied shipping within the U.S. Navy escort zone.

Roosevelt was firmly committed to the Allied cause and the "Atlantic Charter", the "Victory Program" and meeting with Churchill had been made before the US entry in war.


Again avoid the Sterotyphe/Cliche about Japan, the Pacific war will never occur in this scenario

Which Sterotyphe/Cliche about Japan ?

That except killing korean, mandchurian or chinese civilians and fighting unexperienced and undersupplied chinese armies, the Japanese army or navy had zero chances to win against any major power of WWII, the UK, the USA or the SU...

The Japanese were victorious during 6 months, after they were only loosing except some tacticals successes. Yamamoto was sure of it before the war...
 
There will be no Pacific War because the Japanese are fighting a war against China and the SU...


And where is Japan getting the oil for this new war?

In the OTL, the US slapped an oil embargo on Japan when she merely occupied French Indochina. What the hell to you think the US is going to do when a Nazi Germany-allied Japan actually begins a war with the USSR while still occupying the chunks of China she'd been grabbing since 1937?

The embargo began August 1st, 1941 and Japan launched the operations to seize the Southern Resource Area all of four months later when her oil reserves were down to roughly six to eight months supply.

There are many good reasons why Japan never seriously considered large operations against the USSR. One reason was that the Soviets had always kicked the Kwantung Army's collective ass up between it's collective ears. The other is that Japan didn't have the oil for major operations against a real enemy.

The supply needs of what was a light infantry force - and that's basically what the IJA ever was, a light infantry force - butchering Chinese conscripts and peasants is one thing. The supply needs of a light infantry force tangling with a partially mechanized enemy with more/better tank, artillery, and armor is something else entirely.

Japan knew she'd lose a war with the USSR. What's more, even those crazed colonels, majors, and captains in the Kwantung Army whose insane antics dragged Tokyo deeper into China and into a war with the US knew Japan would lose to the USSR. When asked by Tokyo about the prerequisites for attacking the Soviets, the frothing boobs of the officers of the Kwantung Army drew up a list which, in a typically indirect Japanese manner, let Tokyo know that hitting the USSR was impossible.

Quite frankly, given the oil picture and the IJA's own thinking on the subject, suggesting that the IJA is even more insane than in the OTL and still attacks the USSR means we're entering Alien Space Bat country.
 

abc123

Banned
And where is Japan getting the oil for this new war?

In the OTL, the US slapped an oil embargo on Japan when she merely occupied French Indochina. What the hell to you think the US is going to do when a Nazi Germany-allied Japan actually begins a war with the USSR while still occupying the chunks of China she'd been grabbing since 1937?

The embargo began August 1st, 1941 and Japan launched the operations to seize the Southern Resource Area all of four months later when her oil reserves were down to roughly six to eight months supply.

There are many good reasons why Japan never seriously considered large operations against the USSR. One reason was that the Soviets had always kicked the Kwantung Army's collective ass up between it's collective ears. The other is that Japan didn't have the oil for major operations against a real enemy.

The supply needs of what was a light infantry force - and that's basically what the IJA ever was, a light infantry force - butchering Chinese conscripts and peasants is one thing. The supply needs of a light infantry force tangling with a partially mechanized enemy with more/better tank, artillery, and armor is something else entirely.

Japan knew she'd lose a war with the USSR. What's more, even those crazed colonels, majors, and captains in the Kwantung Army whose insane antics dragged Tokyo deeper into China and into a war with the US knew Japan would lose to the USSR. When asked by Tokyo about the prerequisites for attacking the Soviets, the frothing boobs of the officers of the Kwantung Army drew up a list which, in a typically indirect Japanese manner, let Tokyo know that hitting the USSR was impossible.

Quite frankly, given the oil picture and the IJA's own thinking on the subject, suggesting that the IJA is even more insane than in the OTL and still attacks the USSR means we're entering Alien Space Bat country.


Look. We are talking about Japanese- Soviet War in 1939., and US embargo was in 1940. and 1941. because occupation of Indochina. OFC that Japan ITTL would not occupied Indochina.
 

abc123

Banned
the Japanese army or navy had zero chances to win against any major power of WWII, the UK, the USA or the SU...

Are you sure that UK was in shape to defeat Japan?
Even without war in Europe, that would be a pretty heavy task for them.
;)
 
Look. We are talking about Japanese- Soviet War in 1939., and US embargo was in 1940. and 1941. because occupation of Indochina. OFC that Japan ITTL would not occupied Indochina.


Listen.

I was simply applying the circumstances leading to the OTL embargo to the gibberish you've posted here.

The US cut off Japan's oil when she merely occupied Indochina. If you don't think the US will enact something similar when Japan, as an Axis partner of Nazi Germany, begins a war with the USSR in 1939, 1940, or whenever, you need to re-examine this entire scenario.

Suggesting that only an occupation of Indochina will trigger a US oil embargo is asinine.

And when you ignore the negative views held by the insane fire eaters in the Kwantung Army on the possibility of a war with the USSR, you've seriously need to re-examine this entire scenario.
 
Listen.

I was simply applying the circumstances leading to the OTL embargo to the gibberish you've posted here.

The US cut off Japan's oil when she merely occupied Indochina. If you don't think the US will enact something similar when Japan, as an Axis partner of Nazi Germany, begins a war with the USSR in 1939, 1940, or whenever, you need to re-examine this entire scenario.

Lot's of problems with that statement, I'm afraid.
(1) The Japanese war with the Soviet Union would not initially be in alliance with Germany.
(2) The political climate in the US in 1939 was a 'smidge' more isolationist than it was in the summer of 1941, after the fall of France and the Battle of Britain. In fall 1939, the Roosevelt Administration was having trouble getting congress to allow shipment of weapons the French and British had paid for. A US oil embargo in the fall of 1939 was simply not in the cards politically.
2.5) We have a test of how the US would react to a perceived Japanese act of aggression during a time when isolationism was stronger. The Japanese took IndoChina in two gulps: the north in 1940 and the south in 1941. The US obviously didn't do an oil embargo in 1940 in response to the Japanese occupation of northern Indochina. Why? Isolationism was more powerful in the US then.
(3) Even if the US did do an oil embargo, there would be no reason for the Netherlands or the British to go along with it. Both had plenty of problems in Europe. The logical course for both would be to be happy that two potential threats are keeping each other occupied.
(4) The Japanese move into Indochina threatened a vital US national interest. It put them in a position to threaten ninety-plus percent of the world natural rubber supply. Where is the US vital national interest in the Soviet Far East?
(5) Unlike the Japanese occupation of Indochina, a Japanese/Soviet war growing out of Nomanham would not be a clear act of aggression.

Suggesting that only an occupation of Indochina will trigger a US oil embargo is asinine.

That's a bit of a straw man. There were undoubtedly other Japanese actions that would have triggered an oil embargo. The question is whether or not a war between the Soviets and the Japanese in the fall of 1939 was one of the things that would trigger that US action. That certainly seems unlikely given the US political situation and lack of a vital US national interest in the fight.

And when you ignore the negative views held by the insane fire eaters in the Kwantung Army on the possibility of a war with the USSR, you've seriously need to re-examine this entire scenario.

Unfortunately for this argument, the insane fire eaters in the Kwantung Army were quite eager to take on the Soviets, both in the immediate aftermath of Nomanham and in the fall of 1941. The Japanese home government wisely decided that wasn't a good idea and put a very tough general in charge of making sure the fire eaters didn't restart the war on their own (which was not at all unlikely given their history of starting wars in China)
 

archaeogeek

Banned
(2) The political climate in the US in 1939 was a 'smidge' more isolationist than it was in the summer of 1941, after the fall of France and the Battle of Britain. In fall 1939, the Roosevelt Administration was having trouble getting congress to allow shipment of weapons the French and British had paid for. A US oil embargo in the fall of 1939 was simply not in the cards politically.
2.5) We have a test of how the US would react to a perceived Japanese act of aggression during a time when isolationism was stronger. The Japanese took IndoChina in two gulps: the north in 1940 and the south in 1941. The US obviously didn't do an oil embargo in 1940 in response to the Japanese occupation of northern Indochina. Why? Isolationism was more powerful in the US then.

They didn't do an oil embargo, indeed.
They did a steel embargo.
 
They didn't do an oil embargo, indeed.
They did a steel embargo.

A high quality scrap iron embargo to be exact, but I'm pretty sure that happened before the Japanese entered northern French Indochina. The US did gradually start to squeeze Japan starting in the summer of 1940, but very cautiously because Roosevelt and company were concerned that the Japanese would just go out and grab what they needed. In the summer of 1940 the US was in no position to stop them, nor were the British.

The fall of France did a lot to jolt the US out of isolationism, but Roosevelt still had to tread cautiously. If you think the US wasn't ready for war in December 1941 (which it wasn't), think about how unready it was a year and a half earlier, with a peacetime army that hadn't started expansion yet.

So why risk a war you're not ready for to punish Japan for fighting a Soviet Union that had just agreed to partition eastern Europe with the Nazis? It doesn't make a lot of sense from the US point of view.
 

abc123

Banned
Lot's of problems with that statement, I'm afraid.
(1) The Japanese war with the Soviet Union would not initially be in alliance with Germany.
(2) The political climate in the US in 1939 was a 'smidge' more isolationist than it was in the summer of 1941, after the fall of France and the Battle of Britain. In fall 1939, the Roosevelt Administration was having trouble getting congress to allow shipment of weapons the French and British had paid for. A US oil embargo in the fall of 1939 was simply not in the cards politically.
2.5) We have a test of how the US would react to a perceived Japanese act of aggression during a time when isolationism was stronger. The Japanese took IndoChina in two gulps: the north in 1940 and the south in 1941. The US obviously didn't do an oil embargo in 1940 in response to the Japanese occupation of northern Indochina. Why? Isolationism was more powerful in the US then.
(3) Even if the US did do an oil embargo, there would be no reason for the Netherlands or the British to go along with it. Both had plenty of problems in Europe. The logical course for both would be to be happy that two potential threats are keeping each other occupied.
(4) The Japanese move into Indochina threatened a vital US national interest. It put them in a position to threaten ninety-plus percent of the world natural rubber supply. Where is the US vital national interest in the Soviet Far East?
(5) Unlike the Japanese occupation of Indochina, a Japanese/Soviet war growing out of Nomanham would not be a clear act of aggression.



That's a bit of a straw man. There were undoubtedly other Japanese actions that would have triggered an oil embargo. The question is whether or not a war between the Soviets and the Japanese in the fall of 1939 was one of the things that would trigger that US action. That certainly seems unlikely given the US political situation and lack of a vital US national interest in the fight.



Unfortunately for this argument, the insane fire eaters in the Kwantung Army were quite eager to take on the Soviets, both in the immediate aftermath of Nomanham and in the fall of 1941. The Japanese home government wisely decided that wasn't a good idea and put a very tough general in charge of making sure the fire eaters didn't restart the war on their own (which was not at all unlikely given their history of starting wars in China)

An excellent post Dave.
USA turned rabidly against Japan after Japan's joining the Axis in august of 1940.
POD here is a year before.
 
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