WI: Khalkin Gol and Marco Polo incidents dates switched?

Both the Marco Polo bridge incident and Khalkin Gol battle were not exactly planned events on the part of the IJA, and in both cases the IJA just rolled with what happened.

The Marco Polo Bridge incident which happened in July 7th 1937 saw Chiang Kai-shek escalating into a full war between China and Japan, which was something Chiang originally wanted to delay a few more years until he thought China was 'ready'. Soon after you have a swift Japanese invasion of most of Northern China and central China.

Khalkin Gol, on the other hand, was an accidental incursion of Japanese troops into Outer Mongolia in 1939 which was met with Soviet force. Unlike the Nationalist Chinese, the Soviets were well equipped and relatively well trained. The battle was a defeat for the IJA, which put their plans of invading the Soviet Union on hold.

But what if an accidental skirmish/battle between the Japan and the Soviets happened in 1937, and skirmish/battle happened between Japan and China happened in 1939?

Would the Soviets still win? Would the Japanese decide to invade the Soviet Union first in 1937? Or would a defeat cause the Japanese army to decide to modernise/be less aggressive?

And if Chiang Kaishek gets the two extra years he wanted how much better would the nationalists actually do? How much more assets does Chiang have to work with? Would the war still be a stalemate, or would the Nationalists manage to score a victory against Japan similar to the one the Soviets scored against Nazi Germany in OTL?

Thanks.
 
Without the war in China, I suspect the Kwangtung Army will fight the Red Army for a lot longer than IOTL. However, I don't think it will lead to a war. Both the Soviets and Japanese know they cannot defeat the other unilaterally or quickly. Instead, each just wants to tactically defeat the other (for political reasons) and retain the border demarcation of their choice. Both would keep throwing in more and more units until the need for out of region reinforcements forces one side to capitulate. However, there is likely to be a series of ongoing border conflict. There just won't be one battle.

If Chiang gets a full two years to prepare for war, a Sino-Japanese War that begins in summer 1939 will go very differently than the 1937 war of OTL.

1) China will have completed its program of training and equipping 30 division to modern standards.

2) China will have completed all of its Three Year Projects to boost its industrial production of armaments and machine goods. When the war broke out in 1937, all these projects were incomplete - some only having the factory site laid out and initial equipment ordered. By 1939, these are all completed. The combined effects will make China near sufficient to produce rifles and small arms, allow them to produce modern artillery on their own, and provide many other war needs. China will be much more self-sufficient (although not entirely so) and require a lot of less imports to keep its war machine going.

3) The Chinese Air Force will be much more effective. It is little known that China had hired Claire Chennault to inspect the ROC air force before the war broke out. Chiang offered him the job of air advisor shortly after the war had just begun. The war put a lot of limits on what Chennault could do. With a full two years, China might have an effective air force training. It would also have squadrons of modern aircraft - Messerschmit Bf 109s were on order, and Chennault recommended purchase of certain American models. They wouldn't be equal to the Zero in 1940, but they'd give a good account of themselves in 1939 and have veteran trained pilots available for new aircraft to be purchased.

4) The defensive lines between Shanghai and Nanking - the "Chinese Hindenburg Line" - would be fully manned and prepared. In 1937, they had just been completed and not fully occupied. In 1939, they'd be completely ready. Most likely the Chinese would overwhelm the Japanese in Shanghai and prevent any Yangtze landing, but if not they could probably hold them for far longer in front of Nanking.

5) Chiang would have two more years to consolidate influence and power in China. Not only would Canton and Sichuan be more integrated with the Central government, the balance of power would be so much in Chiang's favor I could see the Guangxi Clique and some of the northern warlords (Han Fuqu in Shandong and Yan Xishan of Shanxi) allow Nanking greater control of them. The additional tax revenue and governance would strengthen China.

6) The CCP is likely to have been eliminated as an independent power. Mao can string things along a while, but two years is too much even for him. Likely sometime in 1938, the CCP would be forced to integrate their Red Army under direct Nationalist command and allow Nationalist representation and authority over the Yenan Soviet. The pressure of the United Front would just be too much for them.

7) Without a war in 1937, the KMT ends its "political tutelage" period and holds elections for the National Assembly that autumn. China "changes" from having a provisional, revolutionary government to a legitimate, constitutional government. This will boost the credibility and prestige of the Nanking regime immensely.

Economically, politically, and militarily, China is far more stronger in 1939 than in 1937.

Most likely, if war breaks out, China is able to hold a line in North China - at worst the Yellow River - against the Japanese and inflict large casualties. It will be obvious that Japan lacks the power to force Chiang to agree to a peace. Japan can then either choose to fight a war it will eventually lose, or be forced to find a face saving way to end the war. Since this is a scenario where Japan has fought several border incidents with the Soviets, Japan likely chooses the second.

At this point, Chiang now has the option of either cooperating with the Japanese to recover Outer Mongolia (from Soviet control) or work with the Soviets to recover Manchuria (from Japanese control). Likely there will be diplomatic shenanigans until Germany invades the Soviet Union at which point Stalin turns over Mongolia to China and suspends involvement in Xinjiang. At this point, Chiang will concentrate on recovering Manchuria.

By 1943, Chiang has likely eliminated the last vestiges of warlord control in China. Nanking now collects taxes in all of China except Manchuria and has incorporated warlord forces into the central army. He likely institutes far reaching military reforms (like a central payroll) since he has no domestic opposition. At this time Chiang will make demands for Japan to abandon Manchukuo or face war, and a final Sino-Japanese War begins sometime in the mid or late 1940s. Another less likely possibility is that Japan agrees to abandon Manchukuo provided Chiang guarantees Japanese investments in the regions - possibly with critical war industries turned over to China in exchange for cash payment.

Basically, if the Japanese wait until 1939 or later to go to war with China, Japan loses.
 
I'd agree with that, by the most part, although I doubt that everything would work out for Chiang so smoothly during that time. Most likely there's something that slows down Chiang's plans but ultimately I agree that if the Japanese delayed the war with China for two years they'd likely lose, and Chiang Kai-shek ends up as the 'President' of all of China (or at least the important parts).

But assuming all this happens what are the wider/long term implications on the world?

The constant skirmishes in the late 1930s would mean Stalin has to have more soldiers on the Soviet-Manchurian border, perhaps hampering some of their war effort when Hitler decides to invade. The resurgent Chinese regional power could also be a game changer for Stalin's Far East policies.

Speaking of Hitler, in 1937 Hitler was forced to choose between Japan and China, in OTL he'd chosen the former. If the war was delayed would Hitler's position be different/would he stay neutral? What would this mean for the wider world? After all, if Hitler aligns himself to Chiang (and assuming Chiang does the same) then China would be considered one of the 'Axis powers', which would probably mean a very different World War in Asia (though I doubt this would happen).

Without a major Sino-Japanese war between China and Japan then there's no US embargo against Japan, and therefore no Pearl Harbour, butterflying away the Pacific War and the subsequent dropping of atomic bombs on Japan and the surrender of Japan. Would this mean Japan maintains its military/imperial government mentality? (And would the US instead use the bombs elsewhere? Further effects from that?)

And once the World War is over (if its still considered a World War), the 'Cold War' as we know it wouldn't be quite the same would it? Communism never spreads to East Asia, so Soviet influence is really limited to Eastern Europe (which is still a fair bit), and no domino theory means less of a 'red scare'. However, Chiang Kai-shek was never too friendly with either America or the Soviet Union... but China wouldn't have the projection capability or ideology to form its own bloc in a three-way Cold War. So how would the world look after WWII ITL?
 

Old Airman

Banned
1939 was THE pinnacle of Soviet pre-WWII war machine. T-26s, BTs tanks, I-15 and I-16 fighter planes, the SB bomber were either thoroughly modern or just started to fade, Soviets produced enough tracks to sustain cargo movement across the Mongolian steppe on the massive scale, and tankers and pilots had enough time get used to their shiny new equipment and to exorcise gremlins out of it. Any Soviet-Japanese "incident" before it would be messier affair for Soviets, with less efficiency, more losses and less lasting effect on the adversary. Exactly as it happened IOTL during the Khasan incident: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Lake_Khasan
 
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Speaking of Hitler, in 1937 Hitler was forced to choose between Japan and China, in OTL he'd chosen the former. If the war was delayed would Hitler's position be different/would he stay neutral? What would this mean for the wider world? After all, if Hitler aligns himself to Chiang (and assuming Chiang does the same) then China would be considered one of the 'Axis powers', which would probably mean a very different World War in Asia (though I doubt this would happen).

People keep saying this in every thread on China in the 1930s.
KMT China would not join the Axis. Yes, they were being backed by the Germans. But they also received intermittent support from the Soviets (intermittent isn't really the word, relations between Nanjing and Moscow fluctuated like a diplomatic yoyo,) and financial support from Britain, France and the US in both public and private capacity.
The KMT modernisation project was based on pragmatically accepting every dollar and bullet that they could get from outside China, with a minimum of diplomatic commitment in return. They were certainly grateful for German assistance, but only complete idiots would have returned the favor by declaring war on the powers who underwrote their factories and controlled all the supply lines into China.
So it's possible that the KMT might have continued along with an Axis Alliance- signing an equivalent of the Tripartite Pact, perhaps, making all the right diplomatic noises to keep the taps flowing. A China that wasn't at war with Japan might even pillage the local holdings of a defeated Allied power, for instance they might take the French Concession in Shanghai in the manner of Japan taking Indochina.
But the moment they thought it would actually carry them into a war with powers far more important to Chinese survival than Germany, they'd drop their associations with Berlin.

Edit: I'm sorry, I just noticed "though I doubt this would happen" and your low post count. I hope you don't feel like I jumped on you- welcome to the board.
 
People keep saying this in every thread on China in the 1930s.
KMT China would not join the Axis. Yes, they were being backed by the Germans. But they also received intermittent support from the Soviets (intermittent isn't really the word, relations between Nanjing and Moscow fluctuated like a diplomatic yoyo,) and financial support from Britain, France and the US in both public and private capacity.
The KMT modernisation project was based on pragmatically accepting every dollar and bullet that they could get from outside China, with a minimum of diplomatic commitment in return. They were certainly grateful for German assistance, but only complete idiots would have returned the favor by declaring war on the powers who underwrote their factories and controlled all the supply lines into China.
So it's possible that the KMT might have continued along with an Axis Alliance- signing an equivalent of the Tripartite Pact, perhaps, making all the right diplomatic noises to keep the taps flowing. A China that wasn't at war with Japan might even pillage the local holdings of a defeated Allied power, for instance they might take the French Concession in Shanghai in the manner of Japan taking Indochina.
But the moment they thought it would actually carry them into a war with powers far more important to Chinese survival than Germany, they'd drop their associations with Berlin.

Edit: I'm sorry, I just noticed "though I doubt this would happen" and your low post count. I hope you don't feel like I jumped on you- welcome to the board.

It's fine. No worries. I've been lurking the site for quite some time now.

That part of my question wasn't really aimed at whether China would join the Axis, but rather if Hitler would throw in his lot with Japan like he did ITL, if he'd pick China's side (maybe criticise Japan if a border skirmish comes up?), or if he'd stay neutral and try to play the peace broker like he wanted to but failed ITL. I'd reckon this may have some butterfly effects since Germany and Japan not being as 'close' as they were ITL then Germany wouldn't necessarily be dragged into a Japan-America war if there was one.

Perhaps we'd see the weird instance where Hitler succeeds in brokering a deal between Japan and China that satisfies both parties, and also giving them French concessions in Asia after 1940 but with neither Asian country actually joining the war any further? So we have two Asian dictatorships that have both industrialised just glaring at each other for the whole of the Second World War and maybe all the way into modern times: A Sino-Japanese 'cold war' if you will. That'd be interesting.

Edit: Okay, so I just reread my own post and realised that I did bring up the possibility of China in the Axis... but I still doubt it. Chiang was very good at being unaligned, with German, British, American, and Soviet assistance all within a short span of a decade and a half. It really does make me wonder how China would've been if united under the Nationalists since they don't quite have their own ideology, they're too big to ignore, but they aren't going to side with the Soviets or Americans in the Cold War.
 
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1939 was THE pinnacle of Soviet pre-WWII war machine. T-26s, BTs tanks, I-15 and I-16 fighter planes, the SB bomber were either thoroughly modern or just started to fade, Soviets produced enough tracks to sustain cargo movement across the Mongolian steppe on the massive scale, and tankers and pilots had enough time get used to their shiny new equipment and to exorcise gremlins out of it. Any Soviet-Japanese "incident" before it would be messier affair for Soviets, with less efficiency, more losses and less lasting effect on the adversary. Exactly as it happened IOTL during the Khasan incident: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Lake_Khasan

I completely missed that battle. I suppose all the prior skirmishes get pushed aside compared to Khalkhin Gol, but there seem to have been several Soviet-Japanese border skirmishes. Would it have been possible for the Japanese to attempt an invasion of the Soviet Union instead of China? Even if they didn't originally intend to and they aren't very successful. After all, the Second Sino-Japanese war was something that neither side actually expected or planned, it just escalated by accident.
 
But what if an accidental skirmish/battle between the Japan and the Soviets happened in 1937, and skirmish/battle happened between Japan and China happened in 1939?
There were intermittent Soviet-Japanese clashes from 1935, and this means both sides won't want full escalation.

Nationalist China would be in a stronger position by 1939, although I don't think this means Mao's going to go anytime soon. The Nationalists were hated in general by the Chinese peasants, and I have my doubts on how successful a 2-year programme can be for an army that size.[/QUOTE]
 

Old Airman

Banned
Would it have been possible for the Japanese to attempt an invasion of the Soviet Union instead of China? Even if they didn't originally intend to and they aren't very successful.
Would it have been possible for the Japanese to attempt an invasion of the Soviet Union instead of China? Even if they didn't originally intend to and they aren't very successful.
Well, the Chinese scenario is impossible after 1922, when Japanese troops left Russian Far East. The Sino-Japanese war started as a gradual encroachment from the Kwantung Army's leadership, and you can't have this encroachment without troops already stationed on the ground, without a "seed of colonization". And Japanese withdrawal of 1922 was owing to American pressure at least as much as to Russian one. However, an "accidental invasion" isn't impossible. And "accidental invasion" of Mongolia, a Soviet puppet state, is even more likely.
Now, the way I see it, Japanese "accidental" invasions were accidents only in eyes of Tokyo's leadership. They were carefully planned and prepared by IJA officers and generals on the ground, and those officers were level-headed and capable men as far as waging war is concerned. So, they need to have a strong feeling of Soviet vulnerability to plan for a successful "accidental invasion". What could give them this feeling? Well, a slightly different http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_conflict_(1929) would have helped.
IOTL Soviets were quick, ruthless and pretty effective against rogue warlord troops, sending loud and clear "we're not ones to mess with" note. But let's assume that they bungled their initial response (Russian army has an infinite ability for self-inflicted harm, if caught in an inopportune moment), giving Zhang Xueliang (and, more important, his Japanese advisers) an impression that Red Army is a "paper tiger". It would embolden Kwantung Army leadership and they'll start planning "an incident". Occupation of Manchuria in 1932 provides a long poorly defended border, and Trans-Siberian Railway a tempting target, hugging the border in many places.
Now, one need to remember that Red Army's ability to wage a modern war was growing by leaps and bounds in 1930s. The 1929 army was a largely WWI-type force with some primitive biplanes for Close Air Support and (barely working) copies of Renault FT for armour. The 1934 army was a rapidly modernizing force with shiny new toys, many outright illiterate recruits and catastrophic lack of experience in use and maintenance of new equipment. The 1939 army, as I've said, knew how to operate and maintain it's equipment. So the learning curve was super-steep, and moving the initial Soviet-Japanese conflict each year back would give Japanese strong impression that the Red army is weak.
So, provided that 1929 conflict was less decisive, it would embolden Japanese activity on Mongolian border with Manchukuo after 1932. Soviets would likely send some kind of expeditionary force to help their Mongolian clients, but in early 1930s it can't be anything more substantial that a cavalry with limited artillery support, weak air and non-existing armour. It is quite possible that this kind of force would do badly in "Alt-Khasan on Nomonhan" circa 1935, losing the battle and enforcing Japanese sense of superiority. And they're likely to start planning a next "incident", i.e. cutting the Trans-Siberian railroad and helping themselves to a bit of the Russian Far East. Now, this one is going to end as bad as IOTL Nomonhan, if not as quick, but Japanese wouldn't know it beforehand...
 
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