Yes, he does run. The Dem establishment still won't want him in (according to Game Change, they used that gaffe as a convenient excuse to say STFO or else) and in that circumstance, dunno if Obama runs. He'll be dividing Obama's vote, Edwards will be dividing Hillary's vote. It all gets very messy, no idea what happens.
Kerry was running to lose. He masterminded the worst campaign anyone has ever seen. Worse than Gore, worse than Dukakis, it was the Pluto Nash of political campaigns. If he hadn't done that, he would have done something else, thrown a baby off a bridge or something. Seriously, the Democrats could have run cement block and it would have turned in a better campaign.
He'd certainly lose the nomination, but if he somehow won it there's no way even he can blow the general.
Working under the assumption Obama stays out, but Kerry, Edwards, and Clinton run...what would happen?
Would Kerry be so weakened on defense/national security by the Swift Boat Vets (again and residual from before) that he loses the GE (despite the economy)...would it keep McCain out of the race?
Beg to differ, he would have found a way. He would have made McCain look intelligent, articulate, even tempered and commanding. He would have sunk the boat.
but would McCain have run against Kerry?
Kerry was running to lose. He masterminded the worst campaign anyone has ever seen. Worse than Gore, worse than Dukakis, it was the Pluto Nash of political campaigns. Seriously, the Democrats could have run cement block and it would have turned in a better campaign.
I can't imagine how he could have imagined he had a real chance to run for the nomination in 2008. If he couldn't beat George W. Bush with a bum economy and disastrous wars, well, who exactly did he think he was going to beat.