WI: Kerry Never Makes Soldier Joke

What if John Kerry never made the joke about dumb people being stuck in Iraq? Would he have run for the 2008 Nomination? How well would he have done?
 
Yes, he does run. The Dem establishment still won't want him in (according to Game Change, they used that gaffe as a convenient excuse to say STFO or else) and in that circumstance, dunno if Obama runs. He'll be dividing Obama's vote, Edwards will be dividing Hillary's vote. It all gets very messy, no idea what happens.
 
Kerry was running to lose. He masterminded the worst campaign anyone has ever seen. Worse than Gore, worse than Dukakis, it was the Pluto Nash of political campaigns. Seriously, the Democrats could have run cement block and it would have turned in a better campaign.

I can't imagine how he could have imagined he had a real chance to run for the nomination in 2008. If he couldn't beat George W. Bush with a bum economy and disastrous wars, well, who exactly did he think he was going to beat.
 
Yes, he does run. The Dem establishment still won't want him in (according to Game Change, they used that gaffe as a convenient excuse to say STFO or else) and in that circumstance, dunno if Obama runs. He'll be dividing Obama's vote, Edwards will be dividing Hillary's vote. It all gets very messy, no idea what happens.

Working under the assumption Obama stays out, but Kerry, Edwards, and Clinton run...what would happen?

Would Kerry be so weakened on defense/national security by the Swift Boat Vets (again and residual from before) that he loses the GE (despite the economy)...would it keep McCain out of the race?
 
Kerry was running to lose. He masterminded the worst campaign anyone has ever seen. Worse than Gore, worse than Dukakis, it was the Pluto Nash of political campaigns. If he hadn't done that, he would have done something else, thrown a baby off a bridge or something. Seriously, the Democrats could have run cement block and it would have turned in a better campaign.

He'd certainly lose the nomination, but if he somehow won it there's no way even he can blow the general.
 
He'd certainly lose the nomination, but if he somehow won it there's no way even he can blow the general.

Beg to differ, he would have found a way. He would have made McCain look intelligent, articulate, even tempered and commanding. He would have sunk the boat.
 
Working under the assumption Obama stays out, but Kerry, Edwards, and Clinton run...what would happen?

Would Kerry be so weakened on defense/national security by the Swift Boat Vets (again and residual from before) that he loses the GE (despite the economy)...would it keep McCain out of the race?

I don't think he could beat Hillary. If he somehow did, the answer is no. Democrats are guaranteed to sweep 2008 under anything resembling Bush's OTL second term. McCain wanted to run, but a health scare could keep him out. In that scenario GOP moderates are probably scrambling for a candidate, since Rudy is still the Republican Ed Muskie- all roof, no foundation.
 
but would McCain have run against Kerry?

Why wouldn't he? McCain expected to run against Hillary, they had a great relationship dating back to the '90s, but obviously they weren't going to surrender their deepest ambition for someone in another party. Plus said relationships (with the noted exception of Bubba and the Bushes) don't usually survive a GE. Prime example is JFK/Nixon.
 
I believe that Kerry would have run. He had effectively maneuvered into one of the harshest critics of Bush's Iraq War policy in the Senate. As RB said, the Democratic establishment won't want him. They (Reid, Schumer, Durbin, etc.) played a big part in convincing Obama to run. But if Kerry is running as the anti-war candidate, it's quite likely that Obama decides to sit out. This effectively clears up Hillary to win the nomination. Edwards will win Iowa, but he won't be able to parlay that into a victory in New Hampshire. That's a race between Clinton and Kerry; a contest that favors the Senator from New York. She'll paint Kerry as unelectable and yesterday's news. It would be an opportunity for her to run as a new face against two former members of a national Democratic ticket. She probably wins New Hampshire and goes on to beat Edwards in South Carolina, effectively eliminating any major opposition for the nomination.
 

JoeMulk

Banned
I think that Kerry would run but would probably take away as much support from Hillary as he did from Obama and a small chunk of support from Edwards. So on the hole he probably wouldn't have much effect on the election, except that he'd do well in New Hampshire due to being from MA.

I was for Edwards in the primary (in heinsight a pretty dumb move) before switching my support over to Obama. I guess that I was in the minority of Edwards supporters.
 
Would Edwards challenge the guy who made him the star of the party? Technically Edwards is young enough to wait it out another four (or even 8, tbh) years...
 
Kerry was running to lose. He masterminded the worst campaign anyone has ever seen. Worse than Gore, worse than Dukakis, it was the Pluto Nash of political campaigns. Seriously, the Democrats could have run cement block and it would have turned in a better campaign.

I can't imagine how he could have imagined he had a real chance to run for the nomination in 2008. If he couldn't beat George W. Bush with a bum economy and disastrous wars, well, who exactly did he think he was going to beat.

The economy in 2004 was starting into hyperdrive fed by war spending, tax cuts and a massive housing bubble. Sure, the housing bubble burst causing the credit crisis and by late 2008 the American public was angry as hell about the economy, but they weren't late 2004. As for the wars the Afghan War Americans thought we were winning back then and backed it by 60%+ the Iraq War by election day was more controveral, but the public was split on the issue even though most Americans felt the war wasn't going well at that time. However, they trusted Bush on the issue of Iraq even when it was going badly because at least he could articulate a consistant position on the war.

If it wasn't for his first terrible debate Bush probably could have beaten Kerry by 6 or 7% come election day.

That said Hillary could have beaten Bush in 2004, but she decided not to get in I suspect in no small part because in the summer, fall and winter of 2004 Bush looked unbeatable. In April of 2004 the al-Qaeda/Baathist and Sadrist uprisings in Iraq knocked Bush down into beatable territory by a decient candidate.

The media and the dems blew their wad on Abu Ghraib in the summer of 2004 which was a big mistake. While the American public may not have been happy at jackass antics of some troops they weren't going to blame Bush for it and didn't. The race was lost by the dems in the summer of 2004.
 
Re: Kerry in '04 - honestly, he did fine. Democrats convinced themselves Bush was an easy target, but his approval ratings were higher than Obama's are now. The most likely outcome was always a narrow Bush victory.

Re: Kerry in '08: He'll run, but he'll be a non-factor, like the Dodd and Biden campaigns. Best case scenario, he performs well in the debate and rehabilitates his image as Biden did. When he inevitably drops out after getting <5% in Iowa, maybe he can parlay that into support for him as Secretary of State or even as VP instead of Biden.

If he opts not to run for reelection for the Senate, that creates some butterflies in MA. Martha Coakley may run to replace him in '08 and win, leaving a stronger candidate - maybe Mike Capuano - to face Scott Brown in Jan. '10.
 
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