The POD is Carter never allows the Shah of Iran to enter the U.S. for medical treatment. As a result the Iran Hostage Crisis doesn't break out, meaning that Carter never experiences the massive surge in his popularity that carried him to victory over Kennedy in the early 1980 Democratic primaries. Faced with abysmal approval ratings and a poor economy, Carter loses the presidential nomination to Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy. In the general election, it will be Kennedy facing California Governor Ronald Reagan. Who does Kennedy pick as his running mate? Who wins the general election?
 
I would give Reagan the edge given that Kennedy has more baggage. Additionally Kennedy might accept debating against John Anderson which I could see boosting Anderson’s numbers, which would mostly cost the Democrats votes given his liberalism.

As for who Kennedy would run alongside, I’d guess he’d select a moderate running mate given his very liberal reputation. Perhaps a southern Dem like John McKeithen or Lloyd Bentsen?
 
I would give Reagan the edge given that Kennedy has more baggage. Additionally Kennedy might accept debating against John Anderson which I could see boosting Anderson’s numbers, which would mostly cost the Democrats votes given his liberalism.

Anderson would take some votes from Democrats, but in OTL he took just as many votes from Republicans upset with Reagan. Further, Anderson's support actually slipped following his debate with Reagan. And I don't see it being any different with Kennedy unless the Senator bombs the debate and Anderson is the clear victor. (Given how Kennedy, even at the age of 62, destroyed Mitt Romney in the 1994 Senate debates I find this outcome unlikely).

As for who Kennedy would run alongside, I’d guess he’d select a moderate running mate given his very liberal reputation. Perhaps a southern Dem like John McKeithen or Lloyd Bentsen?

Bentsen would be ideal. Charismatic, moderate, Southern, a gentleman; he'd be a crucial asset to the Democratic ticket. I'm not sure if Kennedy/Bentsen would actually win Texas, but they could win some border states that leaned Democratic at the time.
 
Reagan easily defeats Kennedy, much worse than OTL. Chappaquiddick killed any chance of Kennedy winning the presidency. To many it made him look like either a coward or a murderer. Many who didn't think he left the girl to die think he flat out murdered her. Kennedy had no chance.
 
Reagan easily defeats Kennedy, much worse than OTL. Chappaquiddick killed any chance of Kennedy winning the presidency. To many it made him look like either a coward or a murderer. Many who didn't think he left the girl to die think he flat out murdered her. Kennedy had no chance.

Chappaquiddick was despicable and rightfully turned some voters away from Kennedy, but in 1978 Gallup had Kennedy leading Reagan by an astonishing margin: 56% to 36%. That twenty point lead would no doubt tighten up in the midst of an electoral campaign, but it would be Reagan - not Kennedy - who'd be the underdog in the race. Remember, Reagan was widely seen as a rightwing extremist and he trailed even Jimmy Carter in the polls until the famous October debate. Reagan would need Kennedy to bomb in the debates, and make other fatal mistakes in the general election campaign, in order to win.
 
IMO Kennedy could beat Reagan if he unites the Democratic Party at the convention and takes the fight to the Republicans. His "Dream Shall Never Die" Speech showed a lot of potential along these lines, so I think Kennedy could pull it off with the right campaign manager and running mate. If elected in 1980 (and provided that he isn't killed by Hinckley), Kennedy would probably win again in 1984. But 1988 would certainly be a Republican year. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if a sex scandal blows up in Kennedy's face during his second term a la Clinton.
 
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