WI: Kennedy is assassinated by Pavlick 12/11/60

As David and others have said, Lyndon Johnson would be immediately favored by the Democratic Party as Kennedy's replacement for the choice of their electors, and given they'd have a period of seven to eight days in which to communicate this, I don't doubt they'd be able to apply the correct amount of pressure to ensure just about all of them would follow through; obviously there could still be a number of defections, some might in protest still cast their votes for Kennedy or some other figure, but I doubt such a movement would be organized enough to come close to denying Johnson a majority. The Unpledged electors of Alabama and Mississippi were opposed even to Johnson's Vice Presidential candidacy, and so I doubt that there would be any change in their stance with him as the Presidential nominee, but given how they fell flat in their attempts to convince Southern Democratic electors to bolt with them I don't see them making any more headway.

The only question then would be the Vice Presidential nomination, and those who had supported Kennedy throughout would probably be given the right to name the candidate for that position. There is a greater risk of splintering here between the Democratic electors, but the impact in turn would be lessened given only the top two candidates would advance to the election in Congress should one not attain a majority; while casting their votes against whomever the DNC candidate may be could rightfully be seen as futile, it could also be said that there would be little risk given the significant margin by which the Democrats held the Senate and the guarantee of a Democratic candidate advancing. Minnesota for example could well throw their electors to Governor Orville Freeman in a show of loyalty, after having failed to find traction within the Kennedy camp for his nomination at the Convention earlier that Summer.

Now looking at the New York Times, there were a list of speculated candidates for the Vice-Presidential nomination for when Kennedy won the nod; it isn't a firm definitive answer as to who they might have favored under these circumstances, but it at least gives some sort of idea who they might "potentially" have leaned towards. The listed are as follows, from here:

  • Senator Stuart Symington of Missouri
  • Senator Henry Jackson of Washington
  • Senator Clair Engle of California
  • Governor Herschel Loveless of Iowa
  • Governor George Docking of Kansas
  • Adlai Stevenson of Illinois
  • Governor Robert Meyner of New Jersey
Later Kennedy would toss in the name of Senator Albert Gore of Tennesee. That said, the strongest two were Symington, who was supported by much of the establishment as being a relatively inoffensive candidate who would neither aid nor harm the ticket, and non-candidate Hubert Humphrey, who through a draft was being pushed by the Party's more liberal members and labor unions. Not being all that familiar with Humphrey's thoughts at the time, I'm not sure how ready he would have been for the Vice Presidency under these circumstances, or whether any wounds from the primary campaign would have healed for the Kennedy camp to elicit support for his nomination, and it didn't help that Humphrey made a last minute endorsement of Stevenson when Governor Freeman opted to endorse Kennedy.

Ultimately, given the way things were trending, I'd think it would come down to either Symington or Jackson, with the advantage going to Jackson. While Symington certainly had the strong support of establishment figures historically, I don't feel as if they'd necessarily still be true if Lyndon Johnson were in Kennedy's place. Jackson seems a much better fit as a "stand-in" Kennedy as it were, was supporter of Kennedy from the beginning and had been a favorite within the Kennedy camp as a secondary choice should Johnson have declined the Vice Presidential nomination.

So, Johnson/Jackson going into 1961.
 
BTW, even if somehow LBJ did not get a majority of the electoral votes and it went into the House, LBJ would easily win there. The new House had 29 delegations with an outright Democratic majority (I'm not even including tied delegations). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/87th_United_States_Congress (It is rather startling today to realize that both Representatives from Utah were Democrats, as were both Representatives from Idaho!) Maybe with JFK, the Mississippi delegation (and just conceivably the Alabama) might be split on supporting him but LBJ will probably get the vote of all the southern delegations. As for the North, even if there are one or two extreme liberals who don't vote for him, it is very unlikely they could cost him more than one or at most two delegations.
 
The big question here is how does LBJ handle foreign policy, which dominated Kennedy's tenure? I think he outright attacks and invades Cuba after the Bay of Pigs, and he'd go to the brink over Berlin. He wouldn't be humiliated by Khruschev at Vienna, in fact it might be the tall and intimidating Johnson who comes out on top.

However, he may militarily intervene in Laos and Americanize the Vietnam War earlier than OTL. Neither of these would be good news for him by 1964...
 

Deleted member 94680

The big question here is how does LBJ handle foreign policy, which dominated Kennedy's tenure? I think he outright attacks and invades Cuba after the Bay of Pigs, and he'd go to the brink over Berlin. He wouldn't be humiliated by Khruschev at Vienna, in fact it might be the tall and intimidating Johnson who comes out on top.

However, he may militarily intervene in Laos and Americanize the Vietnam War earlier than OTL. Neither of these would be good news for him by 1964...

Read the spoiler a few posts before...
 
Read the spoiler a few posts before...

I've never liked Jeff Greenfield's AH stories, and that one is certainly one of his worst. LBJ wouldn't have the political capital needed to pass Civil Rights in 1961, and the notion that the same man who invaded the DR in 1965 would for some reason back off Cuba in 1961 doesn't make sense. And why would LBJ, a consummate deal maker, be so incompetent at Vienna?
 
Top