WI: Ken Clarke loses Rushcliffe in 1997?

Ken Clarke, a notable One Nationer and leadership contender who served as Health Secretary under Margaret Thatcher, Chancellor of the Exchequer under John Major and Lord Chancellor under David Cameron, has represented the safe seat of Rushcliffe in Nottinghamshire since 1970. He's usually had a majority over 10%, with the sole exception of 1997, when he was 'only' 5000 votes ahead of his Labour opponent. Of course, this was fairly common in Blair's landslide, where many safe Tory seats had drastically reduced majorities. But let's presume that a stronger candidate (perhaps one of the Labourites defeated in 1992) combined with a weaker local campaign leads to Clarke's defeat.

Aside from the psychological obvious - losing the Chancellor would sting the activists - what effect would Clarke's defeat have on the Tory party, and the country as a whole? Would anyone else take up the banner of One Nation in the way Clarke did? Does his absence lead to an alternate victor in the eventual leadership contest?

And of course, would Ken join the Formula One commentary alá Michael Portillo, or would he seek a job in Brussels?
 
Well he's not going to be a leadership contender. No pact with him might give Redwood a bit of a boost, although I doubt he'd be able to win. I expect Clarke will go back to Parliament but the question is when. I suspect Portillo might find himself with some competition for Kensington and Chelsea.
 

RyanF

Banned
If Heseltine still refuses to stand for health reasons I can't see anyone else who can get enough nominations to carry the One Nation banner in the leadership election, which I can't see going to anyone other than Hague.

An interesting scenario might be if Portillo is selected as the candidate for Kensington & Chelsea over Clarke in a bitter contest would Clarke consider standing as the Pro-Euro Conservative candidate?

With Clarke out of Parliament and Heseltine unable to take up the mantle of One Nation Conservatism in the leadership election might the Pro-Euro Conservatives do better if the Conservative Party is seen as being too much in the grip of the right?
 
Well he's not going to be a leadership contender. No pact with him might give Redwood a bit of a boost, although I doubt he'd be able to win. I expect Clarke will go back to Parliament but the question is when. I suspect Portillo might find himself with some competition for Kensington and Chelsea.
If Heseltine still refuses to stand for health reasons I can't see anyone else who can get enough nominations to carry the One Nation banner in the leadership election, which I can't see going to anyone other than Hague.

An interesting scenario might be if Portillo is selected as the candidate for Kensington & Chelsea over Clarke in a bitter contest would Clarke consider standing as the Pro-Euro Conservative candidate?

With Clarke out of Parliament and Heseltine unable to take up the mantle of One Nation Conservatism in the leadership election might the Pro-Euro Conservatives do better if the Conservative Party is seen as being too much in the grip of the right?

Thanks for the responses. I feel like Clarke's absence could lead to a more acceptable One Nationer in the contest - Stephen Dorrell, perhaps? Besides, Hague's rise IOTL was something of an anomaly.

I don't think Clarke would be the type to stand for the Pro-Euro Conservatives, though of course it depends on how the Tories treat him. It'd be interesting in the slim chance he was fielded for London Mayor against Ken instead of Archer.
 

RyanF

Banned
Thanks for the responses. I feel like Clarke's absence could lead to a more acceptable One Nationer in the contest - Stephen Dorrell, perhaps? Besides, Hague's rise IOTL was something of an anomaly.

An anomaly yes, but I don't see that some of the other things that led to his rise (Howard's vampirism, Redwood's Redwoodism) would change with Clarke out of the picture.

I don't think the Conservative Party quite appreciated how much the game had changed even after election night, witness the rise of IDS.
 
Top