IOTL Kazakhstan was the last Soviet Republic to declare independence from the USSR. So what would happen if they simply decide to continue the legacy of the Soviet Union, but in Kazakhstan ?
And maybe integrate Kyrgyzstan back as an autonomous province.
How will this change Central Asia and the rest of the world ?
How would the 90s, 2000s, 2010s and early 2020s be in this scenario ?
They would just become the Kazakh Soviet Socialist Republic, a big Trasnistria in Central Asia. Big chance of it getting annexed into the Union State, because there's no controversy around Moldova, Ukraine or Romania to prevent it.
It just would be one of really extraordinary nation like Belarus or Transnistria.

Borat would be really intresting.
Claiming to be USSR requires assuming Soviet debt onto yourself. And it is not a winning strategy so to speak, for Kazakhstan especially.
A civil war if this timeline plays out in the simplest path; that Kazakhstan has hardline socialist leaders who stick it out.

The military might and internal security apparatus of Moscow would be gone. As such Kazakhstan hiding as a rump USSR would not be able to contain the discontent; of which there will be plenty of. There would be broad anti-communist feelings from the masses because the regime is refusing to read the writing on the wall. Then there is the Islamic resurgence and Al-Qaeda operating out of Afghanistan.
Rump USSR Kazakhstan would be prime to boil over.

Then there is the issue that Kazakhstan would not be allowed to carry on the degraded political superstructure of the USSR. The Kazakh based Soviet government would still legally be the USSR internationally. This means Kazakhstan would get to control the USSR's permanent Security Council seat. Russia simply would not be having that. Russia would use it's economic influence and military threats to force the Kazakh SSR to "declare independence" from the USSR.
Last edited: