WI Kaiserschlacht in Italy

The 1918 Spring Offensive or Kaiserschlacht was a series of German attacks along the western front during the First World War which marked the deepest advances by either side since 1914. The German authorities had realised that their only remaining chance of victory was to defeat the Allies before the overwhelming human and material resources of the United States could be deployed. They also had the advantage of nearly 50 divisions freed by the Russian surrender (treaty of Brest-Litovsk).

As we all know these offensives were a Pyrrhic victory. The Germans conquered a big swat of land but failed to force the allies to surrender. Moreover the German losses were enormous. The offensive was quite useless and probably hastened Germany's defeat.

At the time it was quite obvious that Italy was the weakest of the allies. It generally performed poorly compared to its allies and its adversaries even though they only had to face the Austro-Hungarians ( at least until 1917). If the Italians won, their gains were usually quite limited. And then the battle of Caporetto started which lasted from the 24th of October until the 19th of November. That was a truly devastating defeat. The Italians lost over 300.000 soldiers of the 350.000 that fought in the battle while the Germans and Austrians only suffered about 20.000 casualties. In other words: it was a disaster.

The Russians surrendered in march 1918. This freed up many divisions that could be deployed elsewhere. In our TL those were used in Germany's Spring Offensive.

What if those troops were sent to Italy fast for a Spring Offensive there? Would the other allies be able to send in troops fast enough or would the Italians be squashed by the hundreds of thousands of attacking Germans and Austrians? How do the allies react if Italy surrenders? The Germans can use Italy for food and they can attack France from the south now too. That'll worry them. What kind of peace terms do the Italians get? And does Austria-Hungary stick together if there's no battle of the Piave river and no battle of Vittorio Veneto? Would this force the allies to the negotiating table? What kind of peace are the CP's going to get?
 
If Italy folds, will that panic the Allies to the peace table before American soldiers, supplies, and cash arrive in massive numbers?

That's probably what needs to happen for the Central Powers to win.
 
I take it that it won't be the victory the Germans want. The best outcome for Germany in 1918 is a return to the status quo ante bellum plus the recognition of the treaty of Brest-Litovsk.

That will greatly increase Germany's power in the long term though. With al those vassal states in Eastern Europe Germany's economic power will double or even triple once those countries are fully developed/industrialized. The USSR on the other hand will be weaker. without the Ukraine to provide food during Stalin's industrialization assuming that the Soviet Union still exists which it probably will . By 1918 Germany will be too war weary to do anything about it. The German economy is bad and the population is unhappy. Without the treaty of Versailles - with its war reparations and humiliating demands- and the occupation of the Ruhr of area in '23/'24 things will be better though. The monarchy remains but is shaky and the social democrats will try to limit the Emperor's power.

Germany's numbers will increase greatly too once these countries get there own German trained and German equipped armies. Germany will become more powerful than ever before.
 
Capturing Nth East Italy will not cripple the Entente the way Paris and Nth France would. The Allies could just pull out of Italy and concentrate on their own centres of power. There is too much emphasis placed on minor powers in WW1, the engines of the war were Britain-France, Russia and Germany, and much later the USA. With these knocked out the war comes to an end, not peipheral powers like Italy.
 
I'd argue that this is a very bad thing for Germany. It probably emboldens the German military to try and hold out for victory longer, most likely resulting in the complete breakdown of German civil society thanks to the blockade, and probably an equivalent of the Russian civil war with more successful Entente intervention. Without the resources of the Russian interior and vassal states to draw on, Germany ends up permanently destroyed as a significant power due to the scale of the destruction, both human and material, and subsequent dismemberment.
 
If Germany transfers the cream of its army to the Alpine Front, will the Entente forces on the Western Front not be able to launch an attack in response? There'd be little point capturing Venice if the British are rolling over the German border.
 
IOTL they only did that after the German Spring offensive which severely weakened Germany. Without those heavy losses they might not do that. They'd more worried about saving Italy and preventing the Germans from opening up a second front in southern France.
 
They'd more worried about saving Italy and preventing the Germans from opening up a second front in southern France.

It might be more efficient to stop the Germans by launching a counterattack in the West, which could buy them enough time to then stabilise the Italian front. I imagine Italy will be in the same situation as Austria after the Brusilov offensive, and so other entente troops will probably take over most of the responsibility for that front as well. Perhaps Italy could become the main theatre for the AEF?
 
Germany's numbers will increase greatly too once these countries get there own German trained and German equipped armies. Germany will become more powerful than ever before.


It occurs to me that once the Ukraine, Poland, et al. have such armies, they might decide they have other uses for them.
 
What if those troops were sent to Italy fast for a Spring Offensive there? Would the other allies be able to send in troops fast enough or would the Italians be squashed by the hundreds of thousands of attacking Germans and Austrians? How do the allies react if Italy surrenders? The Germans can use Italy for food and they can attack France from the south now too.

This doesn't seem to solve any problems.

Handwaving a magnificent German success, they reach... the French Alps. Good luck.

Meanwhile, Italy was IIRC a food importer at this point. So Italy starves to feed Germany, which, given their inability to get grain from the Ukraine, fails to make use of it.

Hrm.
 
I have to agree.

There seems to be alot of hand-waving which doesn't really get anywhere. I never really understood the *Italy strategy* which has been proposed by various people on this forum.

There will be a battle of the Piave River unless you propose the Italian army just surrenders en masse for no real reason. While an additional number of German divisions might permit a stronger attack, it would also tax further already stretched logistical lines. You can't very easilly just stick half a million men on the Alps and tell them to attack.

Even with all the hand waving, where are the Germans going? Rome? If the Allies continue to send men, money, ammunition and food Italy can potentially withdraw a reasonable distance without collapsing. All the time German logistics are becoming worse. As someone above said, does the loss of Venice or even Italy really matter? Italy has nothing which would save the German home front and if you plan on occupying the entire of Italy to loot what little there is then that represents a loss of thousands of soldiers from the Western Front. The idea that France would struggle with an attack to the south seems to be in complete denial of the geography.

Either way it is likely A-H is effectively out of the war even if they are garrisoning Italy rather than being defeated. The Entente muster their forces for ending the war in 1919-20.
 

MrP

Banned
Setting aside the viability of smashing the Italians a second time on different terrain, after they've learned valuable lessons the hard way, the question of what good this will do comes to mind. Like the Entente's Dardanelles adventure, it may break a minor member of the opposition, but it will do little to harm the enemy on the important front - the Western Front.

The circumstances of the original Italian defeat that makes people so completely disregard them are worth considering - troops were pushed forward (good for offensive, bad for defensive operations - and similar to Gough's Fifth Army IOTL's Kaiserschlacht), gas masks were in short supply, and the high command was inconsiderate of the soldiery. After the catalogue of errors, and the dismissal of Cadorna, the Italians adopted a far more cautious policy until almost the end of the war. I don't rate the Italian army as equal to the German overall, but I don't feel we should presume it will collapse in the same way in different circumstances.

As an aside, Maistre and Plumer were respectively the French and British generals in Italy at the time, I believe. Both were recalled for (or about the same time as) the OTL Kaiserschlacht.
 
If Italy does surrender, what are the chances of the remaining Entente not accepting it and invading Italy to continue the war with the CP there? After the subsequent chaos, the result could be a German occupied "kingdom" in the north fighting against an Entente ruled "republic" in the south.
 
The Italian variant was what Georg Wetzell, the OHL's first operations officer, had in deed proposed to Ludendorff. It had the advantage of strong AuH participation, thus reducing the number of German divisions required. Success was considered warranted. Northern Italy - Milano, Turin, Genua - was/is the industrial core of Italy, the plain of the River Po was/is the acricultural heartland of Italy. The conquest of these areas would effectively take Italy out of the war.
A CP victory certainly would have attracted a number of Entente divisions to Italy, but it could never bring a decision. This is why it was rejected by Ludendorff in OTL.
It could, however, be used as a prelude, striking there in March, forcing the Entente to shift precious reserves to Italy. And then strike in France in April, the big Georg now, not Georgette, taking Hazebrouck and cutting through the BEF to the Channel.
 
Kicking Italy out of WWI will free up what? The equivalent of 10 divisions?

I think that's not a big enough result; Germany needs to knock out the Allies or get them to agree to peace in '18. Wasting several months in Italy isn't going to help much with that.
 
Knocking Italy out of the war would be another massive blow to the morale of the allies. It would reduce the pressure on Austria-Hungary and allow that country a chance to reorganize its army and grow FOOD!
It might have also convinced the allied to negoiate a peace settlement that would be fairer to everyone.
 
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