WI: Kaiser Bill Avoids WW1

Deleted member 94680

Hi Stenz, thanks for you valuable and appreciated participation and input.

Hmmm.

England does not only guarantee Swiss sovereignty and the western border of Germany, they also guarantee France's eastern border. If Germany plows the the new Swiss A-L Provence in order to get at France's throat, England joins the war on the side of the Swiss and French.

But if Germany under alt-Bill is neutral, then the only perceived aggressor will be France. Therefore, no matter the wording of the Treaty, Britain is perceived as guaranteeing Germany’s border. Public opinion in the non-altered nations will still be important. I’m not 100%, but I’m not sure Great Powers Guaranteed other Great Powers as a matter of course. To do so would be more of an alliance, which traditionally Britain was weary of doing.

The idea here is peace on the continent, which allows England to concentrate on her colonies. The slice of western German East Africa is just icing on the cake, which allows the completion of the Cairo to Capetown Railroad and Telegraph.

The idea would be welcome, but the method is troublesome for Britain. The offer of the East African territory isn’t enough of an inducement, IMO. By signing these agreements, Britain is concretely committing herself to a conflict in Europe. OTL, the Entente was more of a resolution of issues with the possibility of getting involved, for example.

The treaty is between the Swiss and the English only, not Germany or France. Germany would like to get France to sign a further treaty with Germany and Switzerland to make it final, but that will take a while for the French to get over what has just been handed to them.

Then that would be up to Britain to sign as opposed to the Kaiser saying they should. Why should they abandon 150 years of foreign policy to suit the Kaiser’s grand plan?

My hopes here are that by the time Russia recovers:

1. Germany will have better relations with Russia and France.
2. The Swiss will have done a masterful job incorporating A-L.
3. The vast majority of A-L citizens will embrace their new situation as a better alternative to being a battleground.
4. France sees the light that this is an acceptable solution to a thorny issue, in which neither France NOR Germany "wins".

Bottom line, peace in this part of Europe, and better relations all around.

Hopes are well and good, but without the exhaustion a major war causes, it’s unlikely nations of this time period will settle for so drastic a change of the status quo.
1. OTL Russia refused offers of German friendship after the Reinsurance Treaty was ditched by the Kaiser. What do they offer to overcome this?
2. A masterful job? It’s been given to them by the Germans as part of Wilhelm’s grand plan. They will likely be seen as occupiers. Accomplices to Germany’s yet further division of their homeland.
3. See 2. But 40-odd years of German control did nothing to change their minds, why would a couple of years of the humiliating occupation by a minor, historically neutral, power? A bootlick of the Kaiser, preventing their return to France.
4. Never. Going. To. Happen. France will see it as they haven’t won but Germany has and the Swiss have joined in against them as well. As well as the “perfidious Albion” hanging like the Sword of Damocles should they ever try to reclaim what is rightfully theirs.
 

Deleted member 94680

The more I think about it, I think we will leave Germany's offer to the Habsburgs as more of an open invitation than an accepted offer, as much as I would like to see a "Greater German Reich" result from all of this maneuvering.

You can’t have a ‘Greater German Reich’ if both Hapsburg Austria and Hohenzollern Germany exist. The kleindeutschland “solution” to the German Question was the result of the two going to war to resolve the issue.
 
Can anyone see France agreeing to Germany ceding A-L to Switzerland in a Grand Peace Conference? Maybe that is another way to crack this nut.

What about splitting once and for all Alsace-Lorraine, or better Elsaß-Lothringen at this point, along ethnic lines whenever possible and facilitate migration to either side for anyone willing to do so?

Would it still be a flashpoint? France and Germany already share a long border.
 
I think that long term an alliance with Britain is untenable. Britain's foreign policy arguably since Elizabeth I was to oppose a single country in Europe disrupting the Balance of Power; keep Europe fighting and they can't threaten our colonies. The German Empire, by its very existence, disrupted the balance of power; it had a huge population, a huge industrial base, good technology, and an excellent, and for the time meritocratic, military. Britain would at the very least not contribute to Germany's defeat of France and Russia, and in my mind would likely fight it no matter what Germany did, because Germany, plain and simple, was a threat to Britain's naval dominance.
 

Deleted member 94680

I think that long term an alliance with Britain is untenable. Britain's foreign policy arguably since Elizabeth I was to oppose a single country in Europe disrupting the Balance of Power; keep Europe fighting and they can't threaten our colonies. The German Empire, by its very existence, disrupted the balance of power; it had a huge population, a huge industrial base, good technology, and an excellent, and for the time meritocratic, military. Britain would at the very least not contribute to Germany's defeat of France and Russia, and in my mind would likely fight it no matter what Germany did, because Germany, plain and simple, was a threat to Britain's naval dominance.

Agreed.

The policy was to support (or ally to) the 2nd best Power in Europe to maintain the balance.

First against the Spanish by allying with the French and the Dutch, then against the Hapsburgs by allying again with the French and the Dutch, then against the French by allying with practically everyone, then the French again with everyone again (including the Prussians and the Hapsburgs) then against the Russians by allying with the French then up to WWI by staying out but opposing Germany and favouring the French.

Britain viewed Europe best as a happy medium and herself as the one to maintain the balance. By avoiding becoming too deeply entwined with any of the European Powers, she could change who she allied with much easier to maintain the balance.
 
What about splitting once and for all Alsace-Lorraine, or better Elsaß-Lothringen at this point, along ethnic lines whenever possible and facilitate migration to either side for anyone willing to do so?

Would it still be a flashpoint? France and Germany already share a long border.

I don't see that as a solution, as this solution would still result in a common border between France and Germany . Kaiser Bill has gone to great lengths to ELIMINATE the border between France and Germany and have Switzerland take over A-L as a buffer. The thought is that with no shared border, there is no way for France or Germany to attack the other without a poop storm coming upon the aggressor in the form of England joining in on the side that was attacked.

As for the Ethnic lines, Germany annexed the French speaking area of A-L after the Franco-Prussian war so that they would have better defensive lines. Passing this region back to France would be a strategic boon to France should they ever decide to attack Germany (or whoever controlled the territory), so that is not in the cards.

Maybe this map would explain things better than I am trying to.

Alsace_Lorraine_departments_evolution_map-en.svg


Switzerland would occupy everything to the east of the yellow line and to the west of of Germany as shown in Gray, which would leave no shared border between Germany and France.

If the map does not show up, here is the link:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1a/Alsace_Lorraine_departments_evolution_map-en.svg
 
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While I like the concept of a "changed Willi", the plot you describe relies quite much on hindsight (for example I doubt that 1902 Germany would EVER consider Austria-Hungary a liability) a
. In addition the Habsburgs would NEVER abandon the Dual Monarchy - especially as they fancy themself the longest continously ruling Western dynasty.

Your "plot" will simply leave pissed Habsburgs (by simply mention the plan) shifting quickly into the French/Russian camp. - Its not until 1908 that Austro-Russian relations made a solution impossible. There are some (Austrian) that view - in the long term - the Polish situation more problematic than the Balkans. If a solution there can be reached - especially if Austria is looking for new partners - you might get an isolated Germany on the continent.

Yes move it to the ASB forum
 
While I like the concept of a "changed Willi", the plot you describe relies quite much on hindsight (for example I doubt that 1902 Germany would EVER consider Austria-Hungary a liability) a
. In addition the Habsburgs would NEVER abandon the Dual Monarchy - especially as they fancy themself the longest continously ruling Western dynasty.

Your "plot" will simply leave pissed Habsburgs (by simply mention the plan) shifting quickly into the French/Russian camp. - Its not until 1908 that Austro-Russian relations made a solution impossible. There are some (Austrian) that view - in the long term - the Polish situation more problematic than the Balkans. If a solution there can be reached - especially if Austria is looking for new partners - you might get an isolated Germany on the continent.

Yes move it to the ASB forum

I concur with this. You have a good basis for a story here, and I do want to see it written, but if you put it in here, you will be quickly be shouted down.
 
I concur with this. You have a good basis for a story here, and I do want to see it written, but if you put it in here, you will be quickly be shouted down.

Thanks everyone for your feedback. As I said in the disclaimer section of my first post, I am a lot of things, but a writer is not one of them. I don't have that kind of talent.

As for my idea, I can see from the replies that this is a scenario that just never would have happened even if Willy had wanted it to. Lets just end the thread and call it a day.

Thanks again everyone!
 
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