Deleted member 94680
Hi Stenz, thanks for you valuable and appreciated participation and input.
Hmmm.
England does not only guarantee Swiss sovereignty and the western border of Germany, they also guarantee France's eastern border. If Germany plows the the new Swiss A-L Provence in order to get at France's throat, England joins the war on the side of the Swiss and French.
But if Germany under alt-Bill is neutral, then the only perceived aggressor will be France. Therefore, no matter the wording of the Treaty, Britain is perceived as guaranteeing Germany’s border. Public opinion in the non-altered nations will still be important. I’m not 100%, but I’m not sure Great Powers Guaranteed other Great Powers as a matter of course. To do so would be more of an alliance, which traditionally Britain was weary of doing.
The idea here is peace on the continent, which allows England to concentrate on her colonies. The slice of western German East Africa is just icing on the cake, which allows the completion of the Cairo to Capetown Railroad and Telegraph.
The idea would be welcome, but the method is troublesome for Britain. The offer of the East African territory isn’t enough of an inducement, IMO. By signing these agreements, Britain is concretely committing herself to a conflict in Europe. OTL, the Entente was more of a resolution of issues with the possibility of getting involved, for example.
The treaty is between the Swiss and the English only, not Germany or France. Germany would like to get France to sign a further treaty with Germany and Switzerland to make it final, but that will take a while for the French to get over what has just been handed to them.
Then that would be up to Britain to sign as opposed to the Kaiser saying they should. Why should they abandon 150 years of foreign policy to suit the Kaiser’s grand plan?
My hopes here are that by the time Russia recovers:
1. Germany will have better relations with Russia and France.
2. The Swiss will have done a masterful job incorporating A-L.
3. The vast majority of A-L citizens will embrace their new situation as a better alternative to being a battleground.
4. France sees the light that this is an acceptable solution to a thorny issue, in which neither France NOR Germany "wins".
Bottom line, peace in this part of Europe, and better relations all around.
Hopes are well and good, but without the exhaustion a major war causes, it’s unlikely nations of this time period will settle for so drastic a change of the status quo.
1. OTL Russia refused offers of German friendship after the Reinsurance Treaty was ditched by the Kaiser. What do they offer to overcome this?
2. A masterful job? It’s been given to them by the Germans as part of Wilhelm’s grand plan. They will likely be seen as occupiers. Accomplices to Germany’s yet further division of their homeland.
3. See 2. But 40-odd years of German control did nothing to change their minds, why would a couple of years of the humiliating occupation by a minor, historically neutral, power? A bootlick of the Kaiser, preventing their return to France.
4. Never. Going. To. Happen. France will see it as they haven’t won but Germany has and the Swiss have joined in against them as well. As well as the “perfidious Albion” hanging like the Sword of Damocles should they ever try to reclaim what is rightfully theirs.