WI: Jutland - RN fighting with BCs and 5th BS only

Let's say that only the BC Fleet and the 5th Battle Squadron to fight the HSF. (The Grand Fleet being delayed or the HSF and the scouting force turns tail upon seeing the Grand Fleet.)

Is this scenario viable, and if so, what are the short term and long-term effects?
 
The Grand Fleet's ships should be fast enough to escape--IMVHO, end result is most likely 2-3 RN battlecruisers sunk as in OTL, and some heavy losses among the Royal Navy's light forces as they slow down the German pursuit. Lots of red faces in London...

This implies that Room 40 really dropped the ball--or that Germany found out about Room 40 somehow and set a trap.
 
The second scenario is more or less OTL - as soon as the Grand Fleet showed up, the Germans started trying to get away.

So let's go with the first scenario. Jellicoe is delayed somehow - let's say a submarine scare, they don't go home but spend an hour milling fruitlessly around the North Sea trying to avoid a submarine. The existence or otherwise of the submarine is irrelevant, they saw plenty of imaginary periscopes IOTL.

So, you still get the Run to the South and the Run to the North as OTL, including their losses. Beatty turns to the northwest rather than the northeast to fall back on the closing Grand Fleet, with Hipper in hot pursuit and Scheer trying his best to keep up. Given the changed geometry from OTL, it's likely that Jellicoe deploys to starboard, Hipper recognises the peril into which the HSF is being led, and the German forces make their best effort to leave nineteen battleship-shaped clouds of clinker over the Jutland Bank and contrails on their way back to the Jade.

Perception of the battle in Britain is that Beatty did his job but was let down by Jellicoe showing up late. The Germans will claim a win even more vociferously - British losses are probably two battlecruisers to nil for Germany, unless Hipper lingers too long under the guns of the Grand Fleet. The Royal Navy will have learnt its' lesson about powder handling on the battlecruisers, though, and Der Tag has not yet come. Both sides will probably keep trying to set up a fleet action, quite possibly fruitlessly.
 
it is certainly viable and I think three, perhaps even four, outcomes are plausible depending on your POD.

IF the HSF discovers the Grand Fleet a bit earlier, thus allowing it to turn tail AND escape from both the GF and Beatty's force: then we are probably left with just the actions recorded in the Run to the South and the subsequent Run to the North. Obviously these could go a bit differently than iOTL but I think they would have a similar overall effect. The British would lose a couple of BCs and have damaged several of Hipper's ships in return, while the 5th BS will have sustained some damage also. The aftermath will be severe criticism for both Beatty and Jellicoe, for failing to unite and destroy the HSF. The Germans can claim a more substantial victory but there is no change to the overall strategic situation.

The GF being delayed could have a pretty similar outcome in all honesty but it may depend on whether Beatty knows this is is the case and how he reacts. If he doesn't know, then the Run to the South should go again pretty much as iOTL but the Run to the North will be more prolonged. Until Beatty realises he isn't gong to join the GF as it isn't there. With the possibility of one or more of the QEs suffering enough damage to drop out of line and subsequently be scuttled or sunk. Though perhaps more probable is that Hipper's BCs get a heavier pummelling from the 5th BS ships as they try to slow them, with at least one so badly damaged it sins on the way home. Unless Beatty messes things up (possible), no great strategic consequences again.

IF he does know the GF is further away in distance and time, he might decide to be more cautious during the initial phase and try to get the 5th BS into action before engaging. Shadowing the German BCs at a distance rather than engaging them asap. When he does see the HSF, he could judge that by the time he leads them onto the GF it will be too late for a fleet action and so heads home instead. Losses on either side could well be low in an inconclusive action. Beatty and Jellico criticised for messing up while the Germans rue another missed chance to pick off an isolated portion of the GF.

Though I suppose Beatty could always try to use a long " Run to the North-West" to try to separate the Scouting Force BCs from the HSF and then turn back to seek their destruction. That would be very messy and could lead to the RN (also?) suffering heavy losses IF the HSF can subsequently catch damaged RN BBs and BCs

Do these outcomes seem reasonable and have I missed one?
 
This implies that Room 40 really dropped the ball--or that Germany found out about Room 40 somehow and set a trap.

Hm.... that gets me wondering... what would the Germans do about Room 40 in the aftermath if they found it out? Well, for starters, I have a feeling that a shake-up in their code traffic security is in order. Then to doing something about the Room itself - if possible. (Perhaps a sabotage or an attempted espionage theft?)
 
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