WI: Justinian Moderates His Conquests

[MNP]

Doing a little re-reading of the Short History of Byzantium and re-read the Justinian chapters. So it occurred to me, what if for some reason Justinian felt that recapturing Italy was a little too much for him to chew on and instead settled for Africa (and maybe Sicily which I gather was easily regained)?

He has more resources, manpower and money directed at the Persians or strengthening the rest of the empire. What effect would the plague have on a slightly more populous but smaller Byzantine Empire?

 

[Basileus Giorgios]

Doing a little re-reading of the Short History of Byzantium and re-read the Justinian chapters. So it occurred to me, what if for some reason Justinian felt that recapturing Italy was a little too much for him to chew on and instead settled for Africa (and maybe Sicily which I gather was easily regained)?

He has more resources, manpower and money directed at the Persians or strengthening the rest of the empire. What effect would the plague have on a slightly more populous but smaller Byzantine Empire?

To be fair, Justinian DID seem to realise this by 539, and had ordered Belisarius to agree a negotiated peace that would have left Italy essentially intact, with a strong surviving Ostrogothic state north of the Po. It was Belisarius' own insubordination that scuppered this scheme. Anyway, to the POD, it means there's probably no great sack of Antioch in 540, and the plague could well be butterflied, as, IIRC, it reached Pelusium and thence Alexandria on just a single ship. If it is not, it will be as devastating as ever, but the Empire COULD bounce back more so that it did in OTL, since the treasury has not been depleted by wars in Italy. On the other hand however, these wars were ones fought on the cheap anyway, and Justinian being Justinian, he'll find a way to fritter away the extra gold.

 

[Kerney]

I think the Plague of Justinian is what undid his conquests in the long term (We're talking a cumulative 50% casualty rate between 540-590). For whatever reason Arabs were much less effected.

So basically I'd argue that we are looking at Byzantium still fights the Persians, perhaps doing a bit better.The Muslims come in a few years latter and still get into Africa and take out the Persians. In addition, the Lombards in Italy look east, perhaps joining the Avars or perhaps simply consoldating.

In the end you end up with a Byzantine empire simply with somewhat better borders in Asia, but one still with the same long term downward tract.