WI: Justinian in Dacia

DominusNovus

Could Justinian have decided that reconquering the old province of Dacia and exerting Roman authority to the Carpathians (everyone's favorite hypothetical Roman border) was worthwhile?

It would have the avantage of being closer to the capital, and there's decent rivers for logistica. And holding the area would make Thracia more secure.

On the other hand, its more exposed, and the Avars are just about to arrive on the scene, and its poorer than Italy or North Africa.

As a tangental advantage, if this invasion is prior to/in place of the invasion of Italy, it could encourage the Lombards to invade Italy early, and weaken the Ostrogoths.
 
LSCatilina

LSCatilina

@DominusNovus
While I could see Justinian undergoing campaigns on the other side of Danube, I'm not too sure it would be a conquest campaign.

Reasons to go to war directly isn't an issue IMO altough a conflict in the early reign of Justinian seems implausible to me, giving the Sassanian pressure : I'd rather see something in the latter part such as
- Kurtigurs manage to form a confederacy with Slavs and possibly Utigurs in face of Avar pressure, that Constantinople is unable to prevent (trough the usual divide and rule diplomacy).
- Audoin manages to crush Gepids earlier than IOTL (in the late 540's or early 550's), creating a geopolitical imbalance with a super Lombard danubian kingdom, and earlier Avar presence

It would probably be more a campaign in Pannonia or Moesia than Dacia proper, and more about keeping the road to Italy open and/or to prevent a pressure on Lower Danube that Goths could indirectly benefit from, tough. But it's the best I can tell : any campaign up to Carpathians seems counter-intuitive, given the other fronts Constantinople was confronted with, and going against the traditional policy of rear-alliances in the region (giving that Dacia was certainly impoverished and weakened enough to not provide any semblance of logistical or fiscal support for such a conquest).

Still, a Roman progression in roughly IOTL Little Vallachia and pontic coast doesn't strikes me as impossible, establishing transdanubian castri to prevent Danubian cities as Sirmium, Viminacium or Novae : historically these two cities (that served as sort of refuges and centers for the regions and supported trough justinian policies) were ruined by the collapse of Roman danubian borders. With a stronger pressure during Justinian's reign, maybe such a threat could be enough to provoke a slight advance.
But I don't think it would be seen as a reconquest of Dacia (for all Justinian could be bothered, Dacia was already part of his empire, Dacia Aureliana that is) and less a conquest than a military enforced clientelship.
 

trajen777

Banned
Yes -- but you would need a quicker solution in Italy
1. Belisurus given 20,000 vs 7500 troops -- campaign goes same until battle north of Rome destroys Gothic army.
2. Campaign completed in 3 years -- you have Italy as a financial self supporting and a positive cash flow back to the ERE.
3. This stable area would allow for troop increases and better finances for the ERE
4. You have the devastation of the Plague (but this would be less financially damaging with Italy in the fold)
5. I think the next step would be more troops to Persian front - till both forces realize they can not gain head way
6. Secondly Justinian's plans were stable fronts -- all of Italy to Alps -- Stable front with Persia -- Arab support of tribes in south - and Spain to Pyrenees (captured 1/3 of Spain with little expense) and with the resources of Italy added to their finances - Spain would have prob been conquored
7. Not Dacia ? He build many forts in the Balkans so the question is would expand the conquests to your suggested areas if he felt that was a more stable border -- the answer is yes -- but it would depend on points 1 - 6 above first
 

trajen777

Banned
Yes and no -- the river allows an easy transport of troops and the 100% better fleets of the Romans allows them to trap the invading barbarians while at the same time making it harder for them to penetrate the empire -- or at least for scouting ---
 
LSCatilina

LSCatilina

Carpathians and the Pontic steppe, far from being an obstacle, were the doorway of Europe until the late Middle-Ages. Even Rhodope mountains were a better choice than these, hence why Dacia was gradually abandoned (to not speak of Dacia ad Moesiam that was quickly given up in face of Sarmatian pressure).
 

trajen777

Banned
I could see with ERE in better shape (per my earlier text) invading that area and setting up client states or some type of financial support to protect the borders
 
LSCatilina

LSCatilina

trajen777 said:
I could see with ERE in better shape (per my earlier text) invading that area and setting up client states or some type of financial support to protect the borders
Click to expand...
It's more or less what existed IOTL, and the empire didn't need to invade : the sheer political and diplomatical (trough trade or gift diplomacy) weight of Constantinople created a network of obligations, or at least acknowledgement, which was based on rear alliance and balance between various chiefdoms and formative states.
It's why Kurtigurs were repelled in 558, as Utigurs were in alliance with Romans and attacked them from behind. Or how Gepids were taken down by Lombards and PseudoAvars in alliance/clientele with Constantinople.

An invasion, far from settling things down, would certainly destructure the region enough to create a geopolitical vulnerability as it happened in Italy : you'd need a really good reason to force Romans to undergo an invasion of a poorly set (logistically wise) region other than for the lulz of it. (And giving how Justinian conquests tended to be as subtle as a bull in a China shop...)
 

RogueTraderEnthusiast

I think if you could persuade Justinian to under a River Pruth campaign (diplomatic and military), you could have the Romans establish themselves a limes along that river, which with the right clients south and west of the Pruth Limes could serve to be a precursor to a similar project to clientelise the entire Carpathian basin - by again, a combination of diplomacy and military. The whole thing would give the Romans some defence in depth, with client states that like during the days of the Republic, slowly travel towards being part of the Empire Proper.

This is basically "invade the Pruth, and make the Gepids your friend" which isn't a terrible idea, but other than providing some level of security on the northern border that could be achieved by other means, isn't number one. At best it means that the Pruth Limes could prevent invasions by Bulgars and shore up that path into Europe, and if secure and strong - potentially hold up the Avars if they still turn up and invade the Gepids (with Lombard help).

I'd always be cautious about Justinian, mainly because of Khosrau. If Belisarius can have those extra few resources that could help with the Italian Campaign. (Perhaps some additional mercenaries? More drill instructors for turning locals into troops?) Then you can have your 'Dacian Campaign' up the Pruth whilst making friends with the Gepids. Build a line of forts there, and assuming the Avars do as in OTL - those Limes could help stop the Avars whilst an army recruited from Italy can help against the Lombards - and essentially set up a Limes in the West.

I think if you could convince him to secure Italy with more troops, and that works, convincing him of a northern campaign in order to secure Italy and the Balkans would be easier.

I've two PoDs for you (both required)

1) Justinian insists that Al-Harith Ibn Jabalah returns the loot he seized as a token of good faith with Khosrau, which I think might be enough to leave Khosrau willing to reject the Ostrogoths tale of Roman conquest of the world. This I think could just buy time to secure Italy.

A consequence of (1) After a slightly delayed war, Belisarius comes back (swapping with Narses?) and defends against Khosrau and saves Antioch, and strikes a blow against Persia, demanding a tribute and a return to the Eternal Peace.

2) After this war, Justinian, cautious of his eastern border even now, is persuaded (slightly assisted by the success of (1)) to make military and diplomatic moves northwards to bring the Gepids into the roman sphere as described above.
 
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