WI: Justinian holds Italy and Spain

[VictorVanBakker]

What if Justinian and his descendants had been capable of restoring Roman rule to western Europe?
If the East managed to conquer the West what would be the course of European history?
What would become the Lingua Franca of such an Empire?
Would it be possible to have a revival of Latin at this point or would it be replaced by Greek? Justinian was supposedly the last Emperor to speak the language.

 

[Marc]

To get any reasonable guesstimate as to what might have happened, you have to have some foundation as to how it might happen. The latter is utterly predicated on the former.

 

[Bob_Semple]

The best way is to make the Gothic Wars go much easier, perhaps have it be conquered in a year or two instead of taking nearly 20 years.

Of course Justinian's Plague is unavoidable, so you'll have to deal with that in the 540s.

Then you need to get a better heir for Justinian. OTL Justin was a poor choice. He ultimately went mad.

Then you have the ALT heir, while maintaining the treaty with the Persians, that Justin tore up, begins to conquer Spain. The Visigoths were not doing well at this time (in fact the reason why Justinian was able to invade in the first place was due to a Hispano-Roman revolt and a civil war), so you'd probably be able to nab Hispania pretty easily if done right.

 

[Fabius Maximus]

To get any reasonable guesstimate as to what might have happened, you have to have some foundation as to how it might happen. The latter is utterly predicated on the former.

The obvious methods would be either (i) a quicker Gothic War, resulting in a stronger Byzantine hold of the peninsula, or (ii) no Lombard invasion (or possibly both).

As for what would happen, one obvious difference would be that the Empire would have much greater strategic depth against an invasion from the east than IOTL. Possibly the last Byzantine-Sassanid War wouldn't have dragged on as long as IOTL, and would have been less devastating (perhaps the Byzantines would keep their hold on the Balkans, for example). It would also have repercussions for the Arab invasions too, perhaps allowing the Byzantines to keep hold of more territory (e.g., Byzantine North Africa might prove easier to hold if backed up by Italy), and/or attempt a Reconquista of their Syrian and Egyptian lands.

Alternatively, if you want full weirdness, perhaps we'd see the Emperors relocating to Rome. Supposedly Constantine IV thought of moving the capital to Syracuse; with all of Italy under his control, and with the historical associations of Rome, he might well end up relocating there after the Arabs take over most of the eastern provinces.

 

[Bob_Semple]

no Lombard invasion

This is actually really easy, even with OTL Gothic Wars. The core reason why the Lombards invaded Italy was because Justin the Mad asked the Avars to invade the Gepids and after they'd did that they decided to omnom the Lombards and the Lombards were like fuk dis we goin' to Italy!

So, basically stop Justin from trying to play 20D chess in the Balkans and you'd remove the Lombards' reason for going to Italy.

So basically what I'm saying is Justin was literal cancer to the Empire.

(or possibly both).

Actually by default an easy reconquest of Italy would remove the reason why the Lombards went to Italy specifically: Italy was easy pickings. They barely had enough troops to defend some coastal enclaves.

Possibly the last Byzantine-Sassanid War wouldn't have dragged on as long as IOTL

If you butterfly away the devastating Gothic Wars with an easy reconquest of Italy and get rid of Justin II (seriously though; he was cancer) the interactions between the Romans and the Persians would be completely different, butterflying that last Byzantine-Sassanid War completely.

 

[Cuāuhtemōc]

A quicker Gothic War is likely to happen if Belisarius was allowed to remain in Italy. Justinian was naive and stupid enough to leave parts of northern Italy under Gothic control and refused to appoint someone in Belisarius' place to manage the situation. This allowed the Roman armies and the commanders to become undisciplined and basically do everything to alienate the Italianate Roman population to Constantinople. Keep Belisarius in Italy, give him more reinforcements to mop up the remaining Goths. Move north until you reach the Danube. Deport any potential rogue elements to the East to bolster defenses against the Persians.

 

[VictorVanBakker]

This is actually really easy, even with OTL Gothic Wars. The core reason why the Lombards invaded Italy was because Justin the Mad asked the Avars to invade the Gepids and after they'd did that they decided to omnom the Lombards and the Lombards were like fuk dis we goin' to Italy!

If you butterfly away the devastating Gothic Wars with an easy reconquest of Italy and get rid of Justin II (seriously though; he was cancer) the interactions between the Romans and the Persians would be completely different, butterflying that last Byzantine-Sassanid War completely.

Okay so going with such a POD, what would the long term consequences be? Could we see an earlier re-population of Italy and general recovery of Europe?

 

[Galba Otho Vitelius]

One thing about this period is that we have very few sources, and they get fewer after Justinian's death. You have to do some speculation to piece together what happened.

In Italy, I suspect that the various stories about how the Lombards arrived are just stories. Generally they reflect badly on the government at the time and I don't get the impression that the historical sources were friendly to to the government. What I suspect happened is that Lombard mercenaries were used to eliminate the Goths in Italy. The East Roman army at the time enrolled mercenaries and "barbarians" extensively, typical of later Roman armies. They were paid in land, again typical of the time given the absence of cash and shortage of hard currency. Once the Lombard mercenaries were used in Italy to remove the Goths, they just stayed, and slipped from imperial control. The fact that the Lombards were found throughout the peninsula, but did not control the ports or the Ravenna-Rome road is telling, that exactly fits where they would be if they were given land by the imperial government, away from the really important areas, but doesn't really match up well with what would happen after a contested invasion.

LIkewise imperial control tended to wane in the Balkans but there are no stories passed down about this.

If I am correct, what this implies that though the imperial government could and did destroy the Goths, keeping control of all of Italy was never on the cards. Probably the closest you could come was the resurrection of a new Western Roman Empire, with the Western Emperor incorporating the Lombards into his inner circle and keeping their allegiance.