Basically a WI about two questions: how could Justinian's invasion of Ostrogothic Italy be averted?
And how would the survival of Ostrogothic Italy affect Europe?
And how would the survival of Ostrogothic Italy affect Europe?
WI Justinian didn't invade Ostrogothic Italy?
- Thread starter Ran Exilis
- Start date
Max Sinister
Banned
About the first: He could decide it was too risky. Maybe because the Persians attack again.
For one thing, the city-states of Italy are less likely to seperate. That means Italy is going to be generally more powerful than OTL. So let's assume that while the Byzies are off fighting the Persians, Ostrogothic Italy gets in a fight with some nearby barbarian tribes. This is going to toughen up the Ostrogoths and lead to a bigger, more efficient army. So if/when the Byzies turn their attention to Italy again but later, they might not be able to take it.
Assuming the Ostrogoths last, the Italian cultural sphere would be much larger, encompassing a good portion of the Balkans, as well as a corner of southeastern France (as show in this map from Wiki)
My guess is that the Ostrogoths become more and more Italianized, taking up the names and culture of their subjects.
One interesting thing is how the Ostrogoths react to the rise of the Muslims (assuming Muhammad isn't butterflyed away) esp. when Saracen pirates start to raid S. Italy and Sicily
My guess is that the Ostrogoths become more and more Italianized, taking up the names and culture of their subjects.
One interesting thing is how the Ostrogoths react to the rise of the Muslims (assuming Muhammad isn't butterflyed away) esp. when Saracen pirates start to raid S. Italy and Sicily
Without large Imperial taxes (which the Roman elite immediately hated when Justian was successful) Italy would probably grow quite rich and powerful enough to repel any other outside invasion.
Just how the issues of the Romanization of the Goths; the Arian/Catholic split between rulers and ruled; the ambitions of the Romans for a unified Empire and of course the attitude of the popes are ones which need careful analysis.
Just how the issues of the Romanization of the Goths; the Arian/Catholic split between rulers and ruled; the ambitions of the Romans for a unified Empire and of course the attitude of the popes are ones which need careful analysis.
For the Saracen pirates in So. Italy and Sicily, I think that the Ostrogoths are going to develop a navy to counter the attacks. A few decades of attack after attack and the Ostrogoth warships are going to start getting pretty good at rooting out and finding pirate bases and docks. Wait long enough and the tables are turned, and the rapidly developing Ostrogoth fleet is raiding North Africa and the Middle East much the same way Vikings raided Europe in OTL.
Perhaps King Theodahad is deposed earlier by the Ostrogoths and replaced by someone more competent. As a result, Belisarius may anticipate strong resistance in Sicily and Italy, and so sail onwards to Africa instead, where he is soon preoccupied by the rebellion there. Ultimately, if such disruptions last long enough, plague and the war with the Persians may end up distracting Justinian for enough time to make further reconquest unfeasible. In this scenario, the Empire is likely to be in a significantly better position in both Africa and Eurasia.
or maybe because Belisarius has been arrested for some stupid reason (such as usurpation of imperial regalia, or similar), and noone is crazy enough to try and invade Italy with such a small army
If Giustinian does not invade, the Ostrogoths have a reasonable chance to sort out the problems of Theoderic's succession (a very long reign is usually a blessing, but can bring trouble too) without having to fight a war on the side (there will always be some activity on the southern Gaul front, but they should be able to handle divided Frank tribes).
Now let's assume that they get a reasonably good king without too much fuss: Italy is rich, and the despoliation of the Gothic wars as well as by Justinian's tax farmers is not going to happen. The big divide is religious, but if one has to judge from the other similar examples (Visigoths and Lombards) in a couple generations or three they usually get a king smart enough to understand that 200,000 Goth warriors (maybe less) cannot lord forever on 5-6 millions Italians, in particular if the subjects have both a different religion and an organised church.
Justinian's plague will affect Italy too but I'd expect it to be less virulent than OTL (less contacts with Byzantium, and a less ravaged Italy too).
Lombards and Gepids are likely to remain clients of the Gothic kingdom of Italy, and protect the eastern border. It will be interesting to understand how the Frankish history will unravel. I might make a guess, though: if the Goths convert, there will be no mission to renovate the church of Gaul (actually there should be no mission even if the Goths do not convert
), and I would expect that there might be enough savy around to take a leaf from the Eastern Roman empire, and put a serious clamp on papal authority.
Nothing too blatant or ostentatious, but too assertive popes will be discouraged
Relations with Byzantium will be like a roller coaster: in general, I'd say they will be on the cold side, and there is no reason for the Byzantines to return the regalia of the western empire. If Italy rides the plague years without too many trouble, they might even think of some adventures in Africa, taking advantage of Byzantine weakness.
Now let's assume that they get a reasonably good king without too much fuss: Italy is rich, and the despoliation of the Gothic wars as well as by Justinian's tax farmers is not going to happen. The big divide is religious, but if one has to judge from the other similar examples (Visigoths and Lombards) in a couple generations or three they usually get a king smart enough to understand that 200,000 Goth warriors (maybe less) cannot lord forever on 5-6 millions Italians, in particular if the subjects have both a different religion and an organised church.
Justinian's plague will affect Italy too but I'd expect it to be less virulent than OTL (less contacts with Byzantium, and a less ravaged Italy too).
Lombards and Gepids are likely to remain clients of the Gothic kingdom of Italy, and protect the eastern border. It will be interesting to understand how the Frankish history will unravel. I might make a guess, though: if the Goths convert, there will be no mission to renovate the church of Gaul (actually there should be no mission even if the Goths do not convert
), and I would expect that there might be enough savy around to take a leaf from the Eastern Roman empire, and put a serious clamp on papal authority.Nothing too blatant or ostentatious, but too assertive popes will be discouraged
Relations with Byzantium will be like a roller coaster: in general, I'd say they will be on the cold side, and there is no reason for the Byzantines to return the regalia of the western empire. If Italy rides the plague years without too many trouble, they might even think of some adventures in Africa, taking advantage of Byzantine weakness.
Do you think that Narses would get under sail with the small army the belisarius got?
And besides that, Belisarius was living a trebly-charmed life in Italy: I'd call it a super-Byzantine wank. Narses was not a bad general, but everything has a limit.
And besides that, Belisarius was living a trebly-charmed life in Italy: I'd call it a super-Byzantine wank. Narses was not a bad general, but everything has a limit.
Max Sinister
Banned
According to one historical novel I read, Belisarius demanded 60k men, but Narses pointed out that he'd need at least 100k.
Belisarius got 25 or 30 K men (a good portion of them Huns and other auxiliaries), and I doubt that Justinian would have been ready to give more than that to anyone
Maybe instead of trying to absorb Italy and Dalmatia into the Empire by outright conquest, Justinian instead forces Theodahad to surrender his kingdom through diplomacy (Theodahad was rather weak and cowardly, and such a deal existed in our timeline, but later fell through). This would result in a revived Roman Italy without the destrutive Gothic War, which so damaged the provicne and drained the Empire in our timeline.
After costs prove higher than anticipated Justinian settles for Sicily and the boot of Italy while Narses seizes about half of the Ostrogothic territories in the Balkans.
One result is that Italy is richer in the future if the Byzantines can try for it.
Another is that the Byzantines have more of a reserve in cash and troops.
A third is that when a Visogothic civil war let Justinian grab a third of Spain on the cheap he might instead have a chance to grab it all.
One result is that Italy is richer in the future if the Byzantines can try for it.
Another is that the Byzantines have more of a reserve in cash and troops.
A third is that when a Visogothic civil war let Justinian grab a third of Spain on the cheap he might instead have a chance to grab it all.
not to mention that Southern Italy and Sicily are the richest portions of the Gothic kingdom (although there are more Goths in Tuscany and Cisalpine Gaul).
IMHO it's all or nothing. In a way, an invasion led by Narses a few years later than in OTL (and I would assume with insufficient forces) could even give a boost to the Gothic kingdom: a short victorious war anyone?
IMHO it's all or nothing. In a way, an invasion led by Narses a few years later than in OTL (and I would assume with insufficient forces) could even give a boost to the Gothic kingdom: a short victorious war anyone?
True, but the main purpose of preventing that invasion is allowing the Ostrogothic kingdom of Italy to survive and to avert the disastrous Gothic Wars, so Grimm's scenario more or less counts.
Hmm, Byzantine Spain...
That would be a rather interesting turn of events!
..
As for things that can persuade Justinian to reconsider the invasion of Italy; Justinian started his campaigns in Vandal Africa (533) and Ostrogothic Italy (535) almost directly after he had signed a treaty with the Sassanid emperor Khosrau I in 532.
Even though this peace was called an "eternal peace" between the two empires, Khosrau had no intentions of keeping his end of the deal, and he started invading the Byzantine territories again in 540, and the Byzantines, being caught up in their campaigns in the west at this point, decided to pay the Sassanids (even) more tribute, instead of trying to defend themselves.
Had Justinian been more wary of Khusrau, then he might have reconsidered his ill-advised plans to invade Italy,
and depending on how much he distrusted Khosrau, he might have dropped his plans to invade Vandal Africa as well...