WI: July Napoleonic Monarchy

IMO the problem with this scenario is that a Bonapartist restoration is a bit too soon -- I think it's a little too absolutist, and Bonapartism was not yet the ideology of the workers and peasantry as it became in 1848. Besides, much of the push during the Revolution came from the moderate royalists, who (for obvious reasons) would not have been thrilled at restoring a Bonaparte.

Hard to disagree with any of this. It's just too soon, without some other major butterflies.
 
Hard to disagree with any of this. It's just too soon, without some other major butterflies.
You must think that a surviving Bonaparte on Elba would have become something of a celebrity. He would eventually become a figure of longing for the French people to recover the ideals of the Revolution without the excesses of him. Napoleon's death in 1827 should shock the spirits enough for a July Revolution to occur in 1830 that Napoleon II can take.
 
You must think that a surviving Bonaparte on Elba would have become something of a celebrity.

Honestly, there was such a strong sentiment among the Congress powers to remove him to a remote destination like St. Helena that I think it would have happened by 1816 regardless.
 
Would Napoleons death date be the same if he would have stayed on Elba? He died of stomach cancer OTL, so I don't think he would have lived long even if he stayed on Elba.
 
Honestly, there was such a strong sentiment among the Congress powers to remove him to a remote destination like St. Helena that I think it would have happened by 1816 regardless.
Yes, but in TL he remained in Elba despite the troubles of France and the powers of Europe felt calmer, especially Tsar Alexander who had a romantic impulse to repay him.

In simpler words, in this TL that does not happen.
 
Would Napoleons death date be the same if he would have stayed on Elba? He died of stomach cancer OTL, so I don't think he would have lived long even if he stayed on Elba.
The conditions of Saint Helena aggravated her illness very quickly. If she had stayed in Elba or France she should have lived much longer.
 
You must think that a surviving Bonaparte on Elba would have become something of a celebrity. He would eventually become a figure of longing for the French people to recover the ideals of the Revolution without the excesses of him. Napoleon's death in 1827 should shock the spirits enough for a July Revolution to occur in 1830 that Napoleon II can take.
You touch on an important topic -- the Napoleonic myth did indeed exist, and Napoleon was probably more popular after his death than in life (while his early military and political successes were much appreciated, by 1815 France had lost nearly an entire generation of men, much of the French peasantry resented mass-conscription, and the failure of France to even gain success in Spain when only a decade and a half ago, the French had little problem fighting Spain). Nevertheless, what some scholars have indeed pointed out is that while the Napoleonic myth gained popularity in the aftermath of Napoleon's death, it did not channel into Bonapartist -- e.g. a desire to enable the Bonapartes to gain hereditary control over France -- sentiment. In fact, it was seen as so unthreatening that even the July Monarchy patronized Napoleon's memory.

Napoleon III, IMO, came to power less because people connected him with his uncle, and more because Napoleon was able to position himself as a moderate in the midst of the political instability of the Second Republic, and appealed both to the peasantry and working class (who saw in him a champion for their interests w/o going "radical") and to the conservative right, who felt he could be controlled. That set of circumstances was not present in 1830, when the Revolution was primarily organized by moderate monarchists.
Anyway, before we get into the details, let's first imagine the big picture: Napoleon II takes power comfortably enough, what happens next? How do the European powers react? What can Napoleon II do to appease them? What do you think his policies would be? Etc
I don't think Europe, including France, has the ability to stomach another set of Revolutionary wars. Nor do I think Napoleon II (who has spent his entire life in St. Helena) is going to have the skill to organize such a war. Europe will likely be alarmed, but not so alarmed that they will go to war with France. I think in this case he will actually be heavily reliant on his advisors; he'll be 18-19 years old, after all. I don't think he will marry a member of the House of Bourbon -- remember that each revolution had been implicitly founded on rejecting the previous one, so it would be odd for him to marry into the previous ruling family. If he's smart, I suspect he will try to acclimate to the Concert of Europe and possibly marry into the Austrian Imperial family.
 
I don't think Europe, including France, has the ability to stomach another set of Revolutionary wars. Nor do I think Napoleon II (who has spent his entire life in St. Helena) is going to have the skill to organize such a war. Europe will likely be alarmed, but not so alarmed that they will go to war with France. I think in this case he will actually be heavily reliant on his advisors; he'll be 18-19 years old, after all. I don't think he will marry a member of the House of Bourbon -- remember that each revolution had been implicitly founded on rejecting the previous one, so it would be odd for him to marry into the previous ruling family. If he's smart, I suspect he will try to acclimate to the Concert of Europe and possibly marry into the Austrian Imperial family.
It is safe to say that he will be a well-prepared monarch, his stay with his father on Elba must have trained him properly, so his intelligence should have been properly channeled.

Why a member of the Habsburgs? Technically he is already a Habsburg and there may be some underlying resentment on both sides. Of course, Austria would welcome him as he is related to the ruling class, but I don't know whether to marry... do you have a girl in mind from the Habsburg household to serve?
 
The conditions of Saint Helena aggravated her illness very quickly. If she had stayed in Elba or France she should have lived much longer.
Not necessarily. His father died of stomach cancer (ironically, I think he went to mainland France for a cure when he died. ISTR someone suggesting to Napoléon they erect an obelisk in the city where Carlo Buonaparte died, and Napoléon scoffed it off). Elisa also died before him (and she was hardly restricted IIRC).

As to Napoléon II...there was a plan in OTL 1830 for him to go to France to "steer the Revolution". His Uncles Joseph, Louis and Jerome/Lucien (ICR which) had a meeting and agreed that this was a plausible idea. However, none of them could get to Reichstadt in Vienna thanks to Metternich (who was prepared for just such an intrigue). However, one of Napoléon's cousins, Elisa Napoleonne, Countess Camerata, slipped Metternich's cordon and actually met the boy on the front steps of his tutor (Prince Dietrichstein)'s home. There Camerata told him of the plan and Reichstadt was actually on board with it (or at least, expressed interest in it), but before anything could be done, Metternich's police showed up to arrest Camerata and deported her.
 
Calling @alexmilman , specialist on Alexander I
Thanks for undeserved compliment. Sorry, did not read this TL and have no idea why AI would be feeling “romantic” about anybody and especially Nappy. But, if (judging by the thread name) the year is 1830 (July Monarchy) then Alexander’s sentiments are irrelevant because he is dead since 1825. 😉
 
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Not necessarily. His father died of stomach cancer (ironically, I think he went to mainland France for a cure when he died. ISTR someone suggesting to Napoléon they erect an obelisk in the city where Carlo Buonaparte died, and Napoléon scoffed it off). Elisa also died before him (and she was hardly restricted IIRC).
In fact, if necessarily. Longwood's unsanitary conditions (it was a pig barn), St. Helena's tropical climate, limited food, Governor Low's reluctance to get him adequate doctors in time, and his constant ban on Napoleon being able to go out to exercise took a deep toll. in the development of Napoleon's cancer.

As to Napoléon II...there was a plan in OTL 1830 for him to go to France to "steer the Revolution". His Uncles Joseph, Louis and Jerome/Lucien (ICR which) had a meeting and agreed that this was a plausible idea. However, none of them could get to Reichstadt in Vienna thanks to Metternich (who was prepared for just such an intrigue). However, one of Napoléon's cousins, Elisa Napoleonne, Countess Camerata, slipped Metternich's cordon and actually met the boy on the front steps of his tutor (Prince Dietrichstein)'s home. There Camerata told him of the plan and Reichstadt was actually on board with it (or at least, expressed interest in it), but before anything could be done, Metternich's police showed up to arrest Camerata and deported her.
Anyway, the boy is in Elba, he only has to do the same as his father and it would be much less expected because both he and his father have lived there for years. Of course, it is possible that he has a network of supporters produced by his father's celebrity.
 
Calling @alexmilman , specialist on Alexander I
If you are in doubt about that, remember that the Tsar initially intended to place Bernadotte on the French throne, but Talleyrand conventioned him otherwise. Alexander, too, was respectful to Josephine and at some point expressed a slight interest in accepting the idea of Napoleon II in France.

The above coupled with his previous friendship with Napoleon, his romantic outbursts (as in Austerlitz he believed he was capable of defeating Napoleon, his later fraternity with Napoleon in Tilsit, his initial intention to confront Napoleon in the Russian campaign, etc, as Metternich would say, it is as if his mind changes every 5 years) and his complacency in being the Liberator of Europe makes him ''reward'' Napoleon for his good behavior on Elba.
 
Alexander, too, was respectful to Josephine and at some point expressed a slight interest in accepting the idea of Napoleon II in France.
Being respectful to Josephine cost Alex nothing. It was a way of thumbing his nose at the Austrians by showing "preference" to her over Marie Louise. As to Bernadotte on the French throne, Alexander I was also supportive of the house of Orléans getting the throne because the Bourbons had snubbed him. And considering the animosity raised at Vienna about a Russia that supported Prussia getting Saxony which was opposed by Britain, the Netherlands, Austria and France (and IIRC from Zamoyski's Rites of Peace war was considered an option).

As to Metternich, he's no less "romantic". His nephew or his son (ICR which) wrote "I think he [Metternich] wanted to be remembered by history as the man who single-handedly defeated Napoléon".
 
So let's just say he goes to France in 1830 and is immensely popular in France. If he manages to reach Paris, I think the Bourbons would run away. Maybe Louis-Phillipe makes some sort of deal with Napoleon II, or he fights till the end. He might want to run away to Belgium and become king of Belgium.
 
Since Napoleon II was a none entity, raised in the Court in Vienna, who died young, without distinguishing himself in any way who would know, or really care? Respectfully I just don't understand why people on the board seem so fascinated with speculating about this nobody of history.
 
Since Napoleon II was a none entity, raised in the Court in Vienna, who died young, without distinguishing himself in any way who would know, or really care? Respectfully I just don't understand why people on the board seem so fascinated with speculating about this nobody of history.

If Hitler had died during the Beer Hall Putsch, he would be considert a nobody. If George Washington had died during the French and Indian War, he would be considert a nobody. If Napoléon Bonaparte had died before the revolution, he would be considert a nobody. If Abraham Lincoln or Mahatma Gandhi or William of Orange or Nelson Mandela had died young, they would be called nobodies. Napoleon II has a lot of undiscovered potential and therefore is a interesting character for alternate history. And speculating is an essensial part of alternate history.
 
Since Napoleon II was a none entity, raised in the Court in Vienna, who died young, without distinguishing himself in any way who would know, or really care? Respectfully I just don't understand why people on the board seem so fascinated with speculating about this nobody of history.
Try imagining it as if you lived at that point in history. Napoleon 2 might not have ended up being much, but he was descended from someone who is thought to be the greatest general in the world as well from one of the greatest houses in history. We know how his story ends but imagine what could have been his story instead...
 
Since Napoleon II was a none entity, raised in the Court in Vienna, who died young, without distinguishing himself in any way who would know, or really care? Respectfully I just don't understand why people on the board seem so fascinated with speculating about this nobody of history.
I myself think that he might not have gotten to much anyway, that's why I changed the OTL conditions so that he lives with his father and can have a proper training to be the Napoleon 2.0.
 
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