WI: July 5th 1863 CSA surrenders

There's no getting around it: You need to have Davis out of the picture to have any chance of an earlier submission by the CSA.

So perhaps your best POD is a sudden death from illness, or an assassination - I'd say the former, since butterflies from the latter are harder to predict, and likely to spur southern resistance (unless the assassin is a Confederate hardliner).

That leaves Alexander Stephens to succeed to the presidency. Stephens was a complicated and mercurial man, and deeply at odds with Davis; but he generally was more supportive of peace feelers, and more likely to give the thing up if pressed. July of 1863 would be unrealistic; but I could certainly see him giving up late in 1864.

To get something sooner requires a more drastic POD, or two: Combining Davis's death with the destruction of Lee's army north of the Potomac.
 
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