WI Julian Castro runs for Governor of Texas in 2014?

Since Julian Castro just announced he is running for president, here's my WI:

WI Julian Castro isn't picked by Barack Obama as HUD secretary and ran for Governor of Texas in 2014? IMO, he doesn't win, but he likely does better than Wendy Davis (then again, with the number of gaffes Wendy made, this is likely, especially if he avoids the wheelchair ad).

How well would he do? And would he run for Texas Senate against Ted Cruz in 2018?
 
He would lose. Most democrats would’ve lost in 2014, it was a republican wave year and it would most likely destroy, not build, support for his campaign in 2018 if he decided to run.
 
Yeah, Wendy Davis was a mediocre candidate, so Castro would likely do better, but he'd never be able to overcome Abbott's 20 point margin. At best given the fact that it was a Republican year he probably loses something like 55% to 45%, but even that seems a bit too generous.
 
Top