WI Juan Prince of Asturias Survived?

Scholastique · Jul 23, 2018

Something that I did have on my mind for quite some time and I have been wondering about the effects for some time.

Other than the obvious no Hapsburg Spain, the King of Spain will face a lot less hostility with Aragon, with the Habsburg focusing on the HRE and I do have the feeling that Catherine of Aragon might have another fate for her. Since Juan's daughter (stillborn and premature OTL) will have been brought to term and chances are she might survive. And when Arthur dies, he might have more children which means that it is alright for him to offer her.

Although I agree that the age gap is rather large since she was born in 1498, being seven years younger than Henry. But I feel that with the death of Arthur, and with his daughter alive and well he might offer her instead of Catherine marrying to Henry. (Age gap aside, it was against Church Law, and he might feel that his daughter will be a better option since he has them in the first place unlike OTL where it was Catherine or Eleanor of Austria.) As for Henry VII, I'm just debating on whether he'll accept this only to play games (since he did that with Catherine and Henry OTL and betrothals usually meant nothing until the real marriage took place) while looking for other offers for a better aged princess. (As I heard there were a dearth of princesses and his daughter was slightly older than Eleanor of Austria). Since the latest as I predict will be in July, which is still four months ahead of Eleanor.

Another thing is how their relations might be later on. Especially with Phillip's indifference to Joanna. And who he will be more partial to, considering that his wife is Phillip's sister.

Some things that I doubt will change, Maria might still marry Manuel (Isabella didn't want to, and the only reason why she was really forced into the marriage was to keep it out of Habsburg hands). In this situation with Juan being directly inheriting Spain, she might not marry and become a nun and Maria will still marry Manuel.

I still have a lot more to ponder but these are the general

Scholastique · Jul 24, 2018

And here is another post which are what I'm considering for now.

Catherine, who will she marry once she finishes her period of mourning? (I'll likely have her have children, and in this scenario she has not spent seven years in deprivation which will be to her advantage).

I'm thinking about having her fulfill Margaret's role (although it's a stretch but I can't seem to find anyone else who is within the situation and in general is just way too young or she's marrying decrepit old men).

As for Henry VII, after the death of Elizabeth of York, I am thinking that he will choose to remarry especially if the match goes through, to try and secure a few more sons for the throne. Before he decides whether he should let his son marry Juan's daughter. Although who, is a stretch and I can't really decide other than hypothetically a Frenchwoman to balance things out or someone who isn't linked to Spain in general .

BlueFlowwer · Jul 24, 2018

Catherine to the duke of Savoy.

Perhaps Elizabeth of Denmark to Henry VII?

Scholastique · Jul 24, 2018

Sounds interesting, although Elizabeth was married in 1502(need to think about how to butterfly it away). Although another interesting union might be Christian II with Mary Tudor, instead of Isabella of Austria. But at this point, it probably won't happen until Christian is king. Which will fit as well and Elizabeth has Henry's ear in this match and is on good terms with her stepdaughter.

isabella · Jul 24, 2018

For Henry VIII he will likely marry someone tied to Spain so either Juana of Naples or Catherine of Aragon herself (after her mother's death) or Germaine of Foix.
I think Manuel will still marry first Isabella (OTL they were married a month before Juan's death) and then Maria because while Isabella do not want be married again Manuel wanted only her (and refuted Maria who was offered as replacement by her parents) and at the same time I can not see Isabella having a long life

kasumigenx · Jul 24, 2018

isabella said:
For Henry VIII he will likely marry someone tied to Spain so either Juana of Naples or Catherine of Aragon herself (after her mother's death) or Germaine of Foix.
I think Manuel will still marry first Isabella (OTL they were married a month before Juan's death) and then Maria because while Isabella do not want be married again Manuel wanted only her (and refuted Maria who was offered as replacement by her parents) and at the same time I can not see Isabella having a long life

One possible butterfly is the Scottish King marrying Maria instead of Margaret.

Scholastique · Jul 24, 2018

kasumigenx said:
One possible butterfly is the Scottish King marrying Maria instead of Margaret.

I doubt so .Scotland is a backwater first and foremost, in which the only real reason why people are interested is because it shared a border with England.

And most of the time, it was roped in by France, and Spain with England against France, I doubt it will really need Scotland. (Nice to keep the peace, but I feel that with Isabella almost close to her thirties and the years she spent as a widpw, they might want to keep an extra daughter on hand). Even with Henry VII playing games with betrothals, they will still prefer England.

Which is why Margaret was needed as the Queen of Scots in the first place. To secure the borders up north. Henry VIII with several daughters will also do the same because it is a necessity for England. For Spain... not so much.

And I do feel that even if they were to pursue it, France will try to stop it. Even if they can't formally ally with them, they will stop all ways to prevent them from being on the English side. Because they will lose that one thing that is limiting England's power, and also boosting it in the long term.

Scholastique · Jul 24, 2018

isabella said:
For Henry VIII he will likely marry someone tied to Spain so either Juana of Naples or Catherine of Aragon herself (after her mother's death) or Germaine of Foix.
I think Manuel will still marry first Isabella (OTL they were married a month before Juan's death) and then Maria because while Isabella do not want be married again Manuel wanted only her (and refuted Maria who was offered as replacement by her parents) and at the same time I can not see Isabella having a long life

I think Joanna of Naples, Germaine was even younger than Catherine. As for Catherine, her children won't succeed to anything unless Henry dies. Which could be a reason why they didn't want to marry her to Henry VII.

And another thing was that Eleanor had been taught that she will have married Henry, even if it didn't happen in the end.

Scholastique · Jul 24, 2018

What if in this scenario they marry Maria to the Duke of Savoy(which Margaret of Austria did for a second marriage), Isabella to Manuel, and only after her death which Catherine will be offered to Manuel who might need someone to marry.

Dargonaut · Jul 24, 2018

So will Spain be able to aquire Portugal?

Tempered Zen · Jul 24, 2018

Darth Dargon said:
So will Spain be able to aquire Portugal?

Probably not. The fact it did OTL was sort of random, considering there were male heirs of Manuel running around [the House of Braganza was founded by a younger son of Manuel and Maria].

Scholastique · Jul 25, 2018

Alexander Helios said:
Probably not. The fact it did OTL was sort of random, considering there were male heirs of Manuel running around [the House of Braganza was founded by a younger son of Manuel and Maria].

Although in this scenario, it's debatable. Because Manuel will insist on Isabella, as he has not married Maria yet and Isabella is still alive albeit wanting out of the marriage as much as possible.

But in this scenario, it will be a three way deadlock. Because of Juan surviving, and having children, how much will they indulge her since the throne is as secure as it can be. And how willing is Manuel going to wait, now that Spain doesn't need to keep it out of the Habsburg (which was a main reason why Isabella had to marry since she was the eldest heiress.) In this scenario Maria will work just as well .

isabella · Jul 25, 2018

Scholastique said:
What if in this scenario they marry Maria to the Duke of Savoy(which Margaret of Austria did for a second marriage), Isabella to Manuel, and only after her death which Catherine will be offered to Manuel who might need someone to marry.

I like that option...

Scholastique said:
Although in this scenario, it's debatable. Because Manuel will insist on Isabella, as he has not married Maria yet and Isabella is still alive albeit wanting out of the marriage as much as possible.

But in this scenario, it will be a three way deadlock. Because of Juan surviving, and having children, how much will they indulge her since the throne is as secure as it can be. And how willing is Manuel going to wait, now that Spain doesn't need to keep it out of the Habsburg (which was a main reason why Isabella had to marry since she was the eldest heiress.) In this scenario Maria will work just as well .

In OTL Isabella acconsented to marry Manuel in the end: she asked him to expel Jews from Portugal who would not convert to Christianity in exchange of her hand, he accepted and they were married at the end of September 1497 while Juan died few days later at the start of October and Margaret lost her child in December so the two things were not related

Scholastique · Jul 25, 2018

isabella said:
I like that option...

In OTL Isabella acconsented to marry Manuel in the end: she asked him to expel Jews from Portugal who would not convert to Christianity in exchange of her hand, he accepted and they were married at the end of September 1497 (Juan died few days later at the start of October and Margaret lost her child in December)

I see, thanks for this development. Guess that the only option is either Isabella grows out of her childbearing years or she dies in childbirth.