WI: Juan Prince de Asturias lives

Just what the title says. What if Juan Prince de Asturias, son of Queen Isabella I of Castile and King Ferdinand II of Aragon, survives and succeeds to the throne? The first obvious change is the Habsburgs don't inherit Spain, Italy and the American Colonies but what then? Would Spain ally itself with France, or keep its alliance with the Habsburgs? Who would the future Charles V marry? Is there a chance that The Habsburgs would stay neutral in Francis I's wars in Italy?
 
Just what the title says. What if Juan Prince de Asturias, son of Queen Isabella I of Castile and King Ferdinand II of Aragon, survives and succeeds to the throne? The first obvious change is the Habsburgs don't inherit Spain, Italy and the American Colonies but what then? Would Spain ally itself with France, or keep its alliance with the Habsburgs? Who would the future Charles V marry? Is there a chance that The Habsburgs would stay neutral in Francis I's wars in Italy?

The thing is - until the advent of the Habsburgs in Spain, the Castilians had been the traditional French ally south of the Pyrenees. It was Aragon, and Navarra that had disputes with the French. Castile had few disputes with France. If Juan of Asturias reigns on the throne, the main issue of contention will be the Aragonian territories (Naples and Sicily, to be precise), and how they are affected by the French conquests in Italy.

Off the top of my head, I remember Ferdinand splitting the Aragonian crown from that of Castile after the death of Isabella, to prevent Aragon from becoming the next Leon and falling into the hands of the Habsburgs, and marrying Germaine of Foix (niece of the then French king). ITTL, that is not likely to happen, and the interests of the French and the Aragonians are still going to clash in Italy. How much Juan is going to involve himself in the first Italian wars, supporting his father is open to question. At least, Castilian diplomatic and political support would be available to Ferdinand, I would imagine.

The major problem is that both the Habsburgs and Aragonians don't want to see the French in Italy (Aragon because the French had a claim on Naples, and the Habsburgs don't want the French in Italy, particularly Milan, since it is a backdoor into Austria) If they can coordinate their actions, it is going to be similar to IOTL, maybe even worse for the French, since two kings will be handling the affairs of the country separately and probably more efficiently. And given the dynastic connections between the Habsburgs and Juan, it is not even hard.

But if they cannot coordinate, then France is in for a windfall.
 
The thing is - until the advent of the Habsburgs in Spain, the Castilians had been the traditional French ally south of the Pyrenees. It was Aragon, and Navarra that had disputes with the French. Castile had few disputes with France. If Juan of Asturias reigns on the throne, the main issue of contention will be the Aragonian territories (Naples and Sicily, to be precise), and how they are affected by the French conquests in Italy.

Off the top of my head, I remember Ferdinand splitting the Aragonian crown from that of Castile after the death of Isabella, to prevent Aragon from becoming the next Leon and falling into the hands of the Habsburgs, and marrying Germaine of Foix (niece of the then French king). ITTL, that is not likely to happen, and the interests of the French and the Aragonians are still going to clash in Italy. How much Juan is going to involve himself in the first Italian wars, supporting his father is open to question. At least, Castilian diplomatic and political support would be available to Ferdinand, I would imagine.

The major problem is that both the Habsburgs and Aragonians don't want to see the French in Italy (Aragon because the French had a claim on Naples, and the Habsburgs don't want the French in Italy, particularly Milan, since it is a backdoor into Austria) If they can coordinate their actions, it is going to be similar to IOTL, maybe even worse for the French, since two kings will be handling the affairs of the country separately and probably more efficiently. And given the dynastic connections between the Habsburgs and Juan, it is not even hard.

But if they cannot coordinate, then France is in for a windfall.


I had forgotten that about Castile. I would guess that Juan would give support to his father to help defend his future inheritance. I doubt that Ferdinand would marry Germaine de Foix. The only reason he married her OTL was to try to have a son to keep Aragon out of the Habsburg's hands. At this point, he already has a son so having another son would make much difference. I mean he could go to the Cortes and ask them to recognize his second son as his heir but I doubt either Ferdinand or the Cortes would do that.

Speaking of Italy, what would happen with Milan? In OTL Charles V claimed it after the Sforza dynasty went extinct. So if the Sforzas still go extinct, who gets it? France, Spain or the Empire?
 

Razgriz 2K9

Banned
Ultimately, It will fall to either the French (if Francis I becomes King as per OTL, he will claim Milan through his paternal grandmother Valentina Visconti) or to the HRE (Milan was still technically a part of the Empire, and if a line goes extinct, the Emperor inherits) Spain with a surviving Trastamara would not want to involve themselves in the Milan dispute since they have no claim.
 
I had forgotten that about Castile. I would guess that Juan would give support to his father to help defend his future inheritance. I doubt that Ferdinand would marry Germaine de Foix. The only reason he married her OTL was to try to have a son to keep Aragon out of the Habsburg's hands. At this point, he already has a son so having another son would make much difference. I mean he could go to the Cortes and ask them to recognize his second son as his heir but I doubt either Ferdinand or the Cortes would do that.

Speaking of Italy, what would happen with Milan? In OTL Charles V claimed it after the Sforza dynasty went extinct. So if the Sforzas still go extinct, who gets it? France, Spain or the Empire?

Ferdinand will never ask to the Cortes to disinherit his first son in favor of a second much younger. OTL both Juan and Miguel (and Miguel's mother Isabella) was perfect heirs for him and he will give them happily his kingdom
 
Last edited:
Speaking of Italy, what would happen with Milan? In OTL Charles V claimed it after the Sforza dynasty went extinct. So if the Sforzas still go extinct, who gets it? France, Spain or the Empire?

Was just re-checking my sources. It seems that when the French invaded Milan and exiled Il-Moro, there was no intervention from anyone. Il-Moro had exasperated everyone with his Machiavellian politics. It was only when they intervened in Naples alongside the Aragonese that the problems about division of Naples began and that brought the Habsburgs into the fray over not only Naples, but also Milan itself. So, if ITTL, the French only try to get Milan, they can probably keep it, with some careful policy. The Spaniards would not care to intervene in Milan for the Habsburgs ITTL and the emperor would probably be more hesitant to get into a war with the French without assured Spanish support.
 
This will probably also affect the dynastic policies of the Habsburgs a bit. Probably more than IOTL Maximilian will focus on regaining Bohemia & Hungary for his house.
This PoD will result in different children for Philip and Joanna, so a different Charles too. However instead of another Iberian match, this Charles, if needed, will marry a princess of Bohemia-Hungary (like OTL Habsburg Ferdinand I) OTOH she might be butterflied awayl; alternatives are like IOTL a French or English princess.

Regarding the relations between the Trastamaras and the Habsburg ITTL, these will still be good, after all it was double marriage between the children of Ferdinand of Aragon and Isabella of Castille and Maximilian of Austria and Mary of Burgundy. John was married to Margaret of Austria and Phillip was married to the sister of John, Joanna; furthermore both matches were relatively happy.
 
Top