WI: Joseph I leaves a male heir?

[Yorel]

Joseph I (1678-1711) was the eldest son of Holy Roman Emperor Leopold I, whom he succeeded in 1705. He unexpectedly died in 1711 and was succeeded by his younger brother, Charles VI. Joseph I had married in 1699 to Wilhelimna of Brunswick-Lüneburg with whom he had three children:

• Maria Josepha (1699-1757) who would marry Augustus III of Poland
• Leopold Joseph (1700-1701)
• Maria Amalia (1701-1756) who would marry Charles Albert, Elector of Bavaria (who later became Holy Roman Emperor Charles VII OTL)

What would be the consequences of Joseph I leaving a male heir upon his death in 1711?

You can look at the problem from the following angles:
1)Maria Josepha is born as a boy.
2)Leopold Joseph survives infancy.
3)Maria Amalia is born as a boy.
4)Joseph has a second son, born between 1702 and 1711.

If you look at the following possibilities though, you can see that Joseph I's son would only be 12 at best upon his father's death. Could he be considered too young to rule as Emperor? If so, what are the chances of Archduke Charles (OTL Charles VI) of getting the Imperial throne in the name of his nephew?
And if the Electors were to chose a non-Hapsburg Emperor at the time of Joseph I's death, who would stand the best chances?
Lastly, how does that affect European events?

 

[Gonzaga]

It could have consequences for the War of the Spanish Succession. Now that Charles VI doesn't become Emperor, and so he wouldn't united the Spanish and the Austrian territories under a single ruler, wouldn the anti-French alliance keep the efforts to put him in the Spanish throne?

 

[SavoyTruffle]

It could have consequences for the War of the Spanish Succession. Now that Charles VI doesn't become Emperor, and so he wouldn't united the Spanish and the Austrian territories under a single ruler, wouldn the anti-French alliance keep the efforts to put him in the Spanish throne?

It's likely, but it depends on the French performance in the war.

 

[Vitruvius]

I once considered this very question. Assuming that Leopold doesn't die in infancy. I think it presents a few interesting questions. Mainly how to handle the Imperial election. I don't think a minor has ever been elected before so he can't just succeed with a regency. On the other hand if his brother is elected events would follow OTL and the anti-French alliance would break down out of fears of Habsburgs uniting Spain and Austria. By 1711 the allies have already turned down Louis XIV's offer to recognize Charles and provide subsidies to the allies to remove Philip. France is committed to winning the war, while British support is wavering.
Charles is in Barcelona at the time of Joseph's death. A lot depends on what he does. The French will almost certainly move to take advantage of disorder in the HRE. So he has to act fast.

Option 1 put himself up as candidate for the HRE and events prob follow OTL

Option 1A same as above but he abdicates Spain in favor of Leopold. With separation of the realms the allies might fight on but there's no guarantee they would win some partition of Spanish territories are somewhat inevitable. Plus Charles really wanted to be King of Spain, especially after having spent the war years in Spain itself.

Option 2 Charles stays in Spain and encourages the electors to elect Leopold. Given that the allies dominate the HRE it could work. The big question is how a regency would work. And who would head it. If Prince Eugene has a role Austria may continue fighting but if the dowager Empress has power I suspect Austria may try to make a separate peace. She was more supportive of her children than of the dynasty at large, as evidenced by her behavior during the War of Austrian Succession. Either way I don't think Britain has the will to see the War through if it means a long drawn out fight in Spain and France with a chaotic agency in Austria and Charles one little heart beat away from uniting the two realms and upsetting the balance of power they're fighting for.

Interestingly if Austria, France and Britain come to terms it may end up being a Spanish civil war with Charles and Philip fighting it out in Spain. I tend to think insuch a scenario Philip would win with Charles getting Spanish Italy as a consolation prize. But if it drags on long enough someone may intervene rekindling a greater European war. Given that France would be under an Orleanist Regency that was not very friendly with Philip they might side with the allies to finally deposed Philip in favor of Charles. So if the broader war ends in say 1712 but Charles holds out in Catalonia for another 5 years he could end up King of Spain, with the southern Netherlands and some portion of southern Italy.

 

[Mikestone8]

I once considered this very question. Assuming that Leopold doesn't die in infancy. I think it presents a few interesting questions. Mainly how to handle the Imperial election.

If there is one. Joseph has had five years in which to get Leopold elected King of the Romans, ie heir to the Imperial throne. I that case , Leopold succeeds Joseph automatically.

Option 1 put himself up as candidate for the HRE and events prob follow OTL

Option 1A same as above but he abdicates Spain in favor of Leopold. With separation of the realms the allies might fight on but there's no guarantee they would win some partition of Spanish territories are somewhat inevitable. Plus Charles really wanted to be King of Spain, especially after having spent the war years in Spain itself.

Actually, that wouldn't divide the realms but unite them. Leopold would still have inherited the Habsburg hereditary lands in Austria, Bohemia and Hungary, whether he was HRE or not. Abdicating spain in his favour would give him two realms and leave Charles a landless Emperor.

 

[Yorel]

If there is one. Joseph has had five years in which to get Leopold elected King of the Romans, ie heir to the Imperial throne. I that case , Leopold succeeds Joseph automatically.

I don't think Joseph I can secure the title King of the Romans for his son, as his son will be at best 12 in 1711 with my scenario, meaning he is a child between 1705 and 1711. I had once asked questions about the Imperial Election in another thread: https://www.alternatehistory.com/Discussion/showthread.php?t=190770

You can check, but DrakeRlugia told me any Imperial candidate needs to be 18, which wouldn't be the case of Joseph I's son. Thus, there are few chances Joseph I will suceed in making his son his heir. Another fact is that I'm not sure the Empire knows how to hold a Regency since none of its ruler required one: all of them were adults or old enough to rule.

Actually, that wouldn't divide the realms but unite them. Leopold would still have inherited the Habsburg hereditary lands in Austria, Bohemia and Hungary, whether he was HRE or not. Abdicating spain in his favour would give him two realms and leave Charles a landless Emperor.

That's true: Austria, Bohemia and Hungary are not linked to the Imperial Crown. There would be a Regency in the Hapsburg domains for the son of Joseph I, even if his Uncle Charles was elected Emperor. Charles would thus have no reason to renounce Spain.
The problem though is that if Charles presents his candidacy to the Imperial Throne while remaining pretender to the Spanish throne, there would be the possibility of a short Imperial-Spanish Personnal Union under his rule: even if it were to disappear after his death (Charles' children would be his heir to the Spanish throne while his nephew would likely become Emperor), I'm not sure his Allies would want such a thing. This is increased by the fact that Charles is unmarried at the time, meaning his nephew would be his heir to the Spanish Throne...

 

[Gonzaga]

I don't think Joseph I can secure the title King of the Romans for his son, as his son will be at best 12 in 1711 with my scenario, meaning he is a child between 1705 and 1711. I had once asked questions about the Imperial Election in another thread: https://www.alternatehistory.com/Discussion/showthread.php?t=190770

You can check, but DrakeRlugia told me any Imperial candidate needs to be 18, which wouldn't be the case of Joseph I's son. Thus, there are few chances Joseph I will suceed in making his son his heir. Another fact is that I'm not sure the Empire knows how to hold a Regency since none of its ruler required one: all of them were adults or old enough to rule.

That's true: Austria, Bohemia and Hungary are not linked to the Imperial Crown. There would be a Regency in the Hapsburg domains for the son of Joseph I, even if his Uncle Charles was elected Emperor. Charles would thus have no reason to renounce Spain.
The problem though is that if Charles presents his candidacy to the Imperial Throne while remaining pretender to the Spanish throne, there would be the possibility of a short Imperial-Spanish Personnal Union under his rule: even if it were to disappear after his death (Charles' children would be his heir to the Spanish throne while his nephew would likely become Emperor), I'm not sure his Allies would want such a thing. This is increased by the fact that Charles is unmarried at the time, meaning his nephew would be his heir to the Spanish Throne...

Considering that IOTL Charles VI did became Holy Roman Emperor while claiming Spain at the same time it would probably happed ITTL too, as his nephew can't become Emperor. Also, by 1711 changes in British politics meant that Britain was already trying to end the war, and much probably the conflict would follow similar paths to IOTL.

However, I wonder if an arrangement could be done where Charles receives Spanish Netherlands and the territories in Italy (in order to not make him a landless Emperor) while Philip get Spain and the colonial Empire, while the Habsburg core lands (Austria, Bohemia and Hungary) are secured to Leopold.

 

[Mikestone8]

However, I wonder if an arrangement could be done where Charles receives Spanish Netherlands and the territories in Italy (in order to not make him a landless Emperor) while Philip get Spain and the colonial Empire, while the Habsburg core lands (Austria, Bohemia and Hungary) are secured to Leopold.

Quite likely. There were lots of precedents. Tyrol, in paticular, was often hived off for a younger son.

 

[Gonzaga]

Quite likely. There were lots of precedents. Tyrol, in paticular, was often hived off for a younger son.

Just a doubt: did the same rules regarding the Emperor (regarding his age) applied to Electors too? Because in this case the young Leopold couldn't become the Elector of Bohemia.

 

[DrakeRlugia]

Just a doubt: did the same rules regarding the Emperor (regarding his age) applied to Electors too? Because in this case the young Leopold couldn't become the Elector of Bohemia.

No, I don't think so. Where there ever any under-age electors? I think in such a situation, their Regent would cast their vote for them. But I don't know if there's any precedent.

 

[Gonzaga]

No, I don't think so. Where there ever any under-age electors? I think in such a situation, their Regent would cast their vote for them. But I don't know if there's any precedent.

That makes sense. So, Charles would probably only receive Tyrol (maybe Further Austria too?) and anything he can gets from the Spanish inheritance.

 

[Vitruvius]

Ok good points about the Austrian inheritance. I felt that was the least likely option. It's just hard to maintain the allied coalition with Charles becoming Emperor. Especially since the momentum is.not on their side with Britain already inclined to make a separate peace, as they in fact did OTL. So with Charles as Emperor and Leopold as King of Bohemia, Hungary et all its similar to when Francis Stephen was Emperor but Maria Theresa ruled the Austrian realms.

If Charles gets the Southern Netherlands and Spanish Italy like OTL its possible he could hold them longer if he had more of a vested interest in them as they are the only lands he can pass to his heirs. I wonder if there might be some pressure on him to abdicate later on when Leopold comes of age. If not he will probably be more invested in the HRE as an institution, governance, reform etc. He doesn't have to waste time and political capital getting everyone to agree to a pragmatic sanction and he has no territories in Austria to rule.

 

[Gonzaga]

I wonder if there might be some pressure on him to abdicate later on when Leopold comes of age.

In the other hand, it could create the conditions for another nice internal family conflict, especially if Charles VI has ITTL a surviving son who could inherit his position as Emperor.

 

[Alpha Trion]

As Mikestone 8 stated in his post, Joseph I would have had 5 years to get Leopold elected King of the Romans. Joseph I himself was elected king of the Romans in 1690 at the age of 12 so he would definitely take advantage of that precedent to elect his own son. Upon the death of Joseph I, Leopold (as king of the Romans) would automatically become Emperor but being under age the imperial authority would be held jointly by two Imperial Vicars until Leopold was 18 years old. By virtue of the Golden Bull, the vicars would be the Elector Palatine Johann Wilhelm II and the Elector of Saxony Frederick Augustus I, and each would have a special authority over a part of the empire, depending on which type of law was in force: the Elector Palatine in regions of Franconian law (Franconia, Swabia, the Rhine, southern Germany), while the Elector of Saxony in regions of Saxon law (Saxony, Westphalia, northern Germany, Hanover). Leopold would also inherit the hereditary Hapsburgs possessions but would also have regency set up in each of those territories. I am not clear as to who would be regent of those territories or at what age Leopold’s minority would end.

As for the war of Spanish Succession, assuming the war is going in the same general direction as OTL, Great Britain, the Dutch Republic, and other allies of the Hapsburgs doesn’t have to worry about Spain and the hereditary Hapsburg possessions having the same ruler as long as Leopold lives. In this scenario, Great Britain will stay in the war in order to place OTL Charles VI on the Spanish throne. Marlborough will retain his command which probably results in an Allied victory over France and Spain. OTL Charles VI would rule Spain and OTL Philip V would be forced back to France.

 

[Gonzaga]

As Mikestone 8 stated in his post, Joseph I would have had 5 years to get Leopold elected King of the Romans. Joseph I himself was elected king of the Romans in 1690 at the age of 12 so he would definitely take advantage of that precedent to elect his own son. Upon the death of Joseph I, Leopold (as king of the Romans) would automatically become Emperor but being under age the imperial authority would be held jointly by two Imperial Vicars until Leopold was 18 years old. By virtue of the Golden Bull, the vicars would be the Elector Palatine Johann Wilhelm II and the Elector of Saxony Frederick Augustus I, and each would have a special authority over a part of the empire, depending on which type of law was in force: the Elector Palatine in regions of Franconian law (Franconia, Swabia, the Rhine, southern Germany), while the Elector of Saxony in regions of Saxon law (Saxony, Westphalia, northern Germany, Hanover). Leopold would also inherit the hereditary Hapsburgs possessions but would also have regency set up in each of those territories. I am not clear as to who would be regent of those territories or at what age Leopold’s minority would end.

That's really interesting. Thanks for the information! And welcome to the board!

 

[Vitruvius]

So if Leopold does become Emperor under a Regency Charles will stay in Barcelona to continue fighting for Spain. But is an allied victory that likely? I assume Eugene of Savoy retains command of the Austrian forces but the Austrian government itself as well as the leadership of the HRE may be less coherent being in the hands of various Regents. I suppose best case scenario is that Marlborough still takes Bouchain in September and is allowed to follow up with a campaign against Paris.

And what form would a victory take? If the allies do score a major victory in France after Bouchain I wonder if Louis XIV makes the same offer he made earlier, he abandons Philip provides subsidies to the allies to eject him and Charles would get Spain, Spanish Netherlands and Sardinia. At that point after so many years of sea-saw fighting the allies might take the deal. After all before the war started a partition was always assumed at it was the OTL outcome as well.

The question is what the French would get. Louis XIV's original offer called for Naples to be given to the Dauphin. But he's dead now. So will the allies give some of Spanish Italy to the new Dauphin, OTL Louis XV? I can't imagine they'd be willing to see portions of Italy directly united with France. Philip V would be too risky to put in place in Naples, as he'd surely use it as a base from which to try to recover Spain. Could we see his son Louis, OTL Luis of Spain, get Naples? Bourbon monarchs and regencies in both France and Naples? Savoy gets Sicily and perhaps the Duke of Lorraine is made to swap Lorraine for Milan, picking up Mantua as well, as he is the Gonzaga heir.

 

[Janprimus]

As Mikestone 8 stated in his post, Joseph I would have had 5 years to get Leopold elected King of the Romans. Joseph I himself was elected king of the Romans in 1690 at the age of 12 so he would definitely take advantage of that precedent to elect his own son. Upon the death of Joseph I, Leopold (as king of the Romans) would automatically become Emperor but being under age the imperial authority would be held jointly by two Imperial Vicars until Leopold was 18 years old. By virtue of the Golden Bull, the vicars would be the Elector Palatine Johann Wilhelm II and the Elector of Saxony Frederick Augustus I, and each would have a special authority over a part of the empire, depending on which type of law was in force: the Elector Palatine in regions of Franconian law (Franconia, Swabia, the Rhine, southern Germany), while the Elector of Saxony in regions of Saxon law (Saxony, Westphalia, northern Germany, Hanover). Leopold would also inherit the hereditary Hapsburgs possessions but would also have regency set up in each of those territories. I am not clear as to who would be regent of those territories or at what age Leopold’s minority would end.

As for the war of Spanish Succession, assuming the war is going in the same general direction as OTL, Great Britain, the Dutch Republic, and other allies of the Hapsburgs doesn’t have to worry about Spain and the hereditary Hapsburg possessions having the same ruler as long as Leopold lives. In this scenario, Great Britain will stay in the war in order to place OTL Charles VI on the Spanish throne. Marlborough will retain his command which probably results in an Allied victory over France and Spain. OTL Charles VI would rule Spain and OTL Philip V would be forced back to France.

Like Gonzaga said, welcome and thanks for your information.
Given the period, I imagine that Charles could manage to secure Spain and the colonies, but IMHO Philip will get a part of the inheritance, so he might end up with the Italian possessions, certainly Naples and Sicily; Milan and Sardinia could go to Philip, but maybe the duke of Savoy receives those (an ally and an other claimant). Regarding the Southern Netherlands, Britain and especially the Dutch Republic don't like the idea of a Bourbon (French influence) ruling those lands, so they could go to Charles or to TTL Leopold.

 

[Gonzaga]

Any chance of something more similar to the Second Partition Treaty?

 

[Vitruvius]

Any chance of something more similar to the Second Partition Treaty?

That's basically what I was thinking. Except Savoy will have to get a something, probably Sicily or Sardinia. And the Lorraine/Milan swap makes sense given that the Duke of Lorraine is the heir to neighboring Mantova.

 

[Janprimus]

That's basically what I was thinking. Except Savoy will have to get a something, probably Sicily or Sardinia. And the Lorraine/Milan swap makes sense given that the Duke of Lorraine is the heir to neighboring Mantova.

Just like OTL the less important and less populous kingdom of Sardinia is more likely than Sicily; although Savoy initially received Sicily (1713-1720) they were forced (by enemies ánd former allies) to exchange this for Sardinia in 1720. Lombardia OTOH could be exchanged for Lorraine....