WI: Joseph Ferdinand of Bavaria lives?

Not so long ago, this was also discussed here. The consensus basically was that Joseph Ferdinand will certainly be able to inherit Spain and the Spanish Colonies, but it is quite probably that the other claimants for the entire inheritance France and Austria and maybe also some, which can claim a part of the inheritance, like Savoy, are compensated with one or more of the following territories: the kingdom of Naples, the kingdom of Sicily, the kingdom of Sardinia, Southern Netherlands and the duchy of Milan.
It might even involve territory swaps with third parties, given that France was interested in Lorraine & Bar, that could be given to France with its duke being compensated with a former Spanish territory (or territories); and it might even be conceivable that Austria also receives some bits of Bavaria (but certainly not all of it).

So basically it might still result in a conflict.
 
I'd be interested in a link to that discussion, if you had it handy; I must have missed it.

Funnily enough, I've been pondering the same question lately, and I have to disagree with the conclusions reported by Janprimus. I suspect there still would be a war, but when it's over nobody gets nothing, little Joe keeps it all.

Britain and the Netherlands were practically orgasmic over the prospect of a King of Spain who wasn't Habsburg OR Bourbon (as the thought of the day went), and Leopold had at last come round to the idea by 1699. Spain made rejection of partition or alienation a sine qua non of its inheritance contracts: no one who alienated any territory would be acknowledged as legitimate.

But of course, le Grand Dauphin still has the best claim to the Spanish throne, and would surely promise not to alienate any territory. I suspect that Louis XIV goes to war for his son's rights of inheritance even if faced with an alliance of basically every other nation in Europe. He knows he can take Madrid without too much trouble, and he's beaten the lot of them before. It's true that Wittelsbach Spain is better for him than Habsburg Spain, so that he "wins" even if he does nothing, but he thinks he can get the whole enchilada. So since no agreement that doesn't give France a lot of territory is acceptable to France and no agreement that gives any territory to anyone is acceptable to Spain, there will be war.

Based on OTL, though, France will lose. Joseph Ferdinand gets everything (and if the war goes as OTL, he'll be 16 when it's over, so I suspect everyone will agree a regency council is in no one's interest at that point). Depending on how bad it is, France may even have to make some (minor) concessions.

Max Emmanuel of Bavaria may indeed be forced to name the Emperor as his heir for Bavaria in the peace treaty; he won't be required to surrender it while alive, though. Joseph Ferdinand simply won't be allowed to inherit it too.
 
I really like this what if because it would be interesting if the Spanish were able to create an alliance with Britain through this in the 18th century. This would be very beneficial for the Spanish, and it might open them up to many more new ideas like the Bourbons did but without being tied to French wars and adventures.
 
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=279133

Is the discussion I was talking about. Besides I only mentioned potential territories France and Austria* could get compensated with, but IMHO at least these two will get their share. France was the Great Power of the Era, and Austria could, with help of the Empire (they are the Emperor), defeat the Bavarian homeland of the new king.

(*= maybe Austria gets bits of Bavaria too)
 
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Caveats if he lives.....

Reactions to the first partition treaty

Upon hearing about the treaty Charles II and the Spanish aristocracy were furious about this foreign attempt to carve up the Spanish empire. They did have less problems with Joseph as king and therefore Spain decided that he would rule the whole Spanish empire, and the Habsburgs and Louis would get nothing. On 14 November 1698 Charles the Sufferer proclaimed his will in which Joseph got all, and the others got nothing.

Upon hearing about this first partition treaty emperor Leopold was also outraged and felt betrayed, but this was not such a problem as Louis and William could have enforced the treaty. William's problem was solved in as far as that France would not get Spain and the Spanish Netherlands without a war. It was not solved with regard to the fact that Louis might go to war to get the Spanish Netherlands.



If he lives, any war should it be fought will be fought on the basis of the first partition treaty if France wants to at least have the neutrality of the Sea Powers.

France cannot just walk into Spain as OTL, as if war occurs, Spain would be opposed rather than allied. The French will fight for every inch of ground from the start.

The French only went to war OTL because they were named the sole heir, which gave them the best chance of obtaining what they realistically desired most from the inheritance, and in that they still utterly failed, though they did benefit from it. Louis is going to prefer negotiationover conflict if he can, since maximilian is in his favour they have the edge there to gain through direct negotiation with Spain after Joseph inherits.

The odds are simple. Louis can go to war and he has a good chance of obtaining the goals of the first partition, but it means war with Spain and the Empire ( The treaty is between France and The Sea powers only), and he has to bank on the Sea powers remaining neutral. That isn't a certainty.
One of the primary motivators for William III was the thought that this could well avoid a devastaing war in a chaotic and unknown situation. since a war has occurred anyways..William can reconsider if only to affect any negotiations Spain might undertake during the course of the resulting conflict. In so doing they will gain more currency by supporting Charles II's wishes than supporting the treaty that obviously was rejected by him and did not include the assent of the Emporer in the first place, no matter how much he has tired personally of the Hapsburg demands. Joseph inheriting everything also has its appeal, even if it does mean war as it ensures the Status quo in the balance of powers, something also desired by the Sea Powers.

In such a situation France would almost certainly lose. Louis is not that much the gambler. He will seek negotiation instead in the face of so many direct and potential enemies when he has no legitmate reason to go to war.

Savoy and Lorraine are probably out in the cold, but could stand to benefit in the latter case from subsequent negotiations. I could see perhaps Karl or the Dauphin or Phillip being appointed as regents for Joseph in some of the contested territories, and then being named heir, or their own heirs being named, upon Joseph's death. Alternatively Lorraine could play that role in part or all the Southern Netherlands upon surrender of their lands to say Karl Or the Dauphin. Something that is to be far more palatable for the Sea powers.

No there is far more rational for continuing a negotiated dialogue. It goes with out saying that Joseph will not inherit Bavaria. It will go to a junior son of Maximilian or a junior line of the Wittelsbach, there are several after all still existing among the various Rhineland principalities..
 
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Having said that...

there are still other flashpoints that could occur...that will also colour any negotiations.....

the nascent Northern Conflict between Sweden and its enemies.... and the looming English succession.. ( Its likely still going to Anne initially, but after her all bets are off) both of these offer opportunities for the various parties to meddle directly or indirectly to gain strategic and political advantage.

Spain ultimately probably benefits best from this as they can promise the moon but ultimately make no definitive decision until the other powers are consumed by other events...and then remain a neutral party. Then they only have to deal with the power that looks to be coming out on top. France or the Empire.
 
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Another point on the succession in Bavaria, OTL HRE Charles VII of Bavaria, the half brother of Joseph Ferdinand, is already alive (born in 1697); so he would be the first candidate to succeed in Bavaria, if Joseph Ferdinand would be denied that inheritance, furthermore he doesn't have a claim on the Spanish throne.

However being an elector or another prince of the empire and a king was possible; the elector of Saxony was king of Poland (since 1697), the duke of Holstein & count of Oldenburg was king of Denmark & Norway, not to mention the HRE (king and elector of Bohemia, archduke of Austria etc.) himself, who (also) was king of Hungary, Croatia etc.
So denying an inheritance might cause problems between the HRE and the Imperial Nobility.
 
Another point on the succession in Bavaria, OTL HRE Charles VII of Bavaria, the half brother of Joseph Ferdinand, is already alive (born in 1697); so he would be the first candidate to succeed in Bavaria, if Joseph Ferdinand would be denied that inheritance, furthermore he doesn't have a claim on the Spanish throne.

However being an elector or another prince of the empire and a king was possible; the elector of Saxony was king of Poland (since 1697), the duke of Holstein & count of Oldenburg was king of Denmark & Norway, not to mention the HRE (king and elector of Bohemia, archduke of Austria etc.) himself, who (also) was king of Hungary, Croatia etc.
So denying an inheritance might cause problems between the HRE and the Imperial Nobility.

granted.... but it is probably the minimum demand the the Emporer is likely to make...that Spain and Bavaria not be linked in Dynastic personal union. They can sweeten it by raising the Electorate to a Kingdom with the caveat that it goes only to Charles and his heirs and Joseph surrenders his inheritance rights to his half brother...For the Wittelsbach this is not such a bad bargain. They still afterall have a chance at the imperial dignity at some point should they gain the necessary electoral vote, and it insures that the Spanish treasury might not be used to finance Bavaria at least directly.


If the the continuing dialogue were to occur...I see things transpiring something like:

In additon to the items with regard to Bavarian inheritance.

Karl is made regent in Milan and perhaps the Tuscan territories or perhaps just Finale or perhaps just Milan. upon Joseph' s death he or his heirs succeed there to the Ducal dignity...problematic if he only has a female heir of course.

Lorraine replaces Maximilian as regent in the Netherlands during the course of Joseph's life and will inherit on his death...at which time Lorraine and Bar will pass to the Dauphin and his heirs. During his life...Joseph could work to undermine these agreements and in some cases may succeed....

France it should be noted will be the biggest initial loser. They will probably argue for a more direct role for one of their heirs.....Dauphin or Phillip right from the start.

Spain however will keep Naples Sicily and Sardinia right from the start...and at least on paper the empire will continue in its entirety. could be modified of course....


Phillip in Milan and Karl in the southern Netherlands with Lorraine on the outside.



The appointment of Joseph of Bavaria as universal heir to Charles II had practically fulfilled the ambition of William III by keeping the inheritance out of French hands. For Louis it kept the Habsurgs out of Spain. This way the will had both annulled and confirmed the first partition treaty

Further reasons why War would probably not likely occur and continued dialogue would be the preferred course for all parties.

It offers for instance the best chance for if not alliance then co-beligerancy with the Empire and Russia between France and Sweden...with the maritime powers and Spain as wary observers.

Even though Charles XII was disdainful of any alliance with France if they are unoccupied then France has the prospect of making gains at the Empire's expense, probably gianing favour in Spain as a result and Sweden can turn earlier against Russia before they are consolidated there. I'm just not sure what France would desire from the Empire...though a revision in its favour of the proposed Spanish arrangements would be a good start. Perhaps the Ottomans can be convinced to re-engage the Russians somewhat earlier as well as a result.

Hence Joseph's survival has the prospect of changing events beyond all recognition and re-shaping events of the 18th Century considerably... It is a very big "what if" that honestly has never been pursued to any realistic conclusion.
 
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