WI: Jordan Annexes West Bank, 1987

Background from Wikipedia
In 1987 Israeli Foreign Affairs Minister Shimon Peres and King Hussein tried secretly to arrange a peace agreement in which Israel would concede the West Bank to Jordan. The two signed an agreement defining a framework for a Middle Eastern peace conference. The proposal was not consummated due to Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir's objection. The following year Jordan abandoned its claim to the West Bank in favor of a peaceful resolution between Israel and the PLO

So what if Jordan actually does re-annex the West Bank in 1987? Egypt had already re-annexed the Sinai Peninsula a decade earlier in the Camp David Accord. With a peace treaty signed between Jordan, Israel and Egypt, might peace have been achieved?

The Golan Heights and Gaza Strip would still remain an issue. How would these remaining issues be resolved if Jordan were to annex the West Bank?

Would Jordan simply annex the Gaza Strip too?
Would Egypt simply annex the Gaza Strip?
Would the Gaza Strip become it's own independent state?

How would life for Palestinians in the West Bank change by going back to Jordanian rule? Would the territory be neglected and remain in poverty or would funds pour into education, infrastructure, roads etc for it's development and integration into the rest of Jordan?

Personally, I think this would have brought us much closer to peace.
 
Background from Wikipedia


So what if Jordan actually does re-annex the West Bank in 1987? Egypt had already re-annexed the Sinai Peninsula a decade earlier in the Camp David Accord. With a peace treaty signed between Jordan, Israel and Egypt, might peace have been achieved?

The Golan Heights and Gaza Strip would still remain an issue. How would these remaining issues be resolved if Jordan were to annex the West Bank?

Would Jordan simply annex the Gaza Strip too?
Would Egypt simply annex the Gaza Strip?
Would the Gaza Strip become it's own independent state?

How would life for Palestinians in the West Bank change by going back to Jordanian rule? Would the territory be neglected and remain in poverty or would funds pour into education, infrastructure, roads etc for it's development and integration into the rest of Jordan?

Personally, I think this would have brought us much closer to peace.

I think this would belong in the post 1900 section.

Gaza would either stay apart of Israel or become autonomous territory jointly governed by Egyptian and Palestenian Authorities. If Egypt is generous, they may cede some of the Sinai to gaza.

West Bank would probably still be in poverty and may even get worse. I could imagine Palestenian citizens being evenly split on whether they should still pursue independence or be happy with another Arab state. As a result a civil war may develop in West Bank and possibly the rest of Jordan.

The rest of the Arab world would be also split. Some Arab states will shift their propaganda to demonizing israel for "holding Arab citizens hostage" within their borders...and will continue to question its right to exist. Other Arab states may shift their anger toward Jordan.
 
Background from Wikipedia


So what if Jordan actually does re-annex the West Bank in 1987? Egypt had already re-annexed the Sinai Peninsula a decade earlier in the Camp David Accord. With a peace treaty signed between Jordan, Israel and Egypt, might peace have been achieved?

The Golan Heights and Gaza Strip would still remain an issue. How would these remaining issues be resolved if Jordan were to annex the West Bank?

Would Jordan simply annex the Gaza Strip too?
Would Egypt simply annex the Gaza Strip?
Would the Gaza Strip become it's own independent state?

How would life for Palestinians in the West Bank change by going back to Jordanian rule? Would the territory be neglected and remain in poverty or would funds pour into education, infrastructure, roads etc for it's development and integration into the rest of Jordan?

Personally, I think this would have brought us much closer to peace.


Technically, Egypt didn't 'reannex' the Sinai Peninsula. It was always Egyptian. Israel withdrew, giving control back to Egypt under the proviso that it remained demilitarised.

If Jordan regained the West Bank, then the PLO would become their problem. They wouldn't take the Gaza Strip with them, it would be a bit pointless. Gaza would remain under Israeli occupation and be considered a stateless limbo land. Israel might withdraw and hand it over to Israel, but not likely. Israel might just outright annex Gaza.

The main question is: Who gets East Jerusalem? Israel annexed it, but no one recognised it. I'm guessing that Jordan would hand that over for the West Bank. Holding the West Bank was important for Jordanian water rights to the Dead Sea - they wouldn't have to share it.
 
The PLO was established in 1964 and Israel took the West Bank in 1967. During that time the PLO fought Israel (not Jordan or Egypt) so I imagine that this would continue if Jordan re-annexed the West Bank.

I think it would be extremely hard to convince Egypt to annex the Gaza Strip, but that would be the preferred solution for Israel. Likely the Gaza Strip would just remain in the status-quo occupied territory status it had experienced during the 1970s & 1980s until maybe Israel decides to just annex the land (with the hope of maybe pushing the people into Egypt?). Israel annexed the Golan Heights and Jerusalem, so maybe that would be Gaza's fate aswell.

Overall I think it would have solved much of the conflict and result in a more peaceful Israel and better life for West-Bankers. Really seems like a missed opportunity. My guess is that the hardcore Anti-Zionists would see both Egypt and Jordan as sell-outs (as they do now) and collaborators.

The conflict with Hezbollah, Hamas & PLO would continue. But they'd have less international support from the lack of check-point and apartheid/occupation looking conditions in the west bank. They also wouldn't be able to use the West Bank as a launching point for terrorism (atleast not without the Jordanian authorities hunting them down).
 
Top