Let's say events early in the American Civil War happen differently, resulting in Joseph E. Johnston staying out east. Let's also say that Robert E. Lee gets sent to a post in the west, instead of assuming command of the Army of Northern Virginia. How might the course of the Civil War have changed with these two in different positions from OTL? How might the aftermath be affected?
WI: Johnston keeps his Eastern command, Lee commands in the West
Only after they each get their army to one million men, and even then, doubtful.
I feel like the situation in the West wouldn't change that much, how much the one in the East changes - depends on how you see Joe Johnston.
But to explain the first: Yes, Lee was a better general in general than Bragg. Yes, Lee was definitely a better cat herder than Bragg. But a lot of the barriers to the Army of Tennessee accomplishing anything good for itself are still in place, and I think that weighs more heavily on it than Lee actually getting along with Breckinridge (for example). It'll change the details more than it'll change the big picture of the AoT being in a terrible situation, and there's not a lot of good material for "replace these clowns with better guys" - at least nothing obvious based on what I know of how Lee handled that in the Army of Northern Virginia to me.
And on the second, because I feel obligated to be fair despite my own opinions:
I do think Johnston would be willing to fight McClellan to a point, though. He did attack at Seven Pines, after all.
Launch something like the Seven Days? I don't see it. But not, I think, run from Richmond within a week either.
But to explain the first: Yes, Lee was a better general in general than Bragg. Yes, Lee was definitely a better cat herder than Bragg. But a lot of the barriers to the Army of Tennessee accomplishing anything good for itself are still in place, and I think that weighs more heavily on it than Lee actually getting along with Breckinridge (for example). It'll change the details more than it'll change the big picture of the AoT being in a terrible situation, and there's not a lot of good material for "replace these clowns with better guys" - at least nothing obvious based on what I know of how Lee handled that in the Army of Northern Virginia to me.
And on the second, because I feel obligated to be fair despite my own opinions:
I do think Johnston would be willing to fight McClellan to a point, though. He did attack at Seven Pines, after all.
Launch something like the Seven Days? I don't see it. But not, I think, run from Richmond within a week either.
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Imagine if McClellan was facing an army of a million men. He'd believe there were 10 million of them, and wouldn't be convinced otherwise even when its pointed out this is more than the population of the entire Confederacy.
This likly does not change the outcome of the war, for instance even if Lee's can hold the Mississippi for example and distrupt the anaconda plan from splitting the confederacy in 2 that still does not fix the union blockade
en.m.wikipedia.org
What I do think is interesting is that Grant was origonaly stationed out west and inevitably a early Grant vs Lee confrontation is going to occur weather it be on the Mississippi or further east in Kentucky and Tennessee.
en.m.wikipedia.org
Anaconda Plan - Wikipedia
Ulysses S. Grant and the American Civil War - Wikipedia
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They did. The whole reason Lee got command in OTL was because Johnston was seriously wounded while directing an attack against the Federals at Seven Pines.
It's hard to say what I want to say without sounding sarcastic instead of genuinely pleased, so I'm just going to say I'm glad this thread attracted Nytram's eye.
Johnston seems to me like he'd be reluctant to be as fully "the best way to defend Richmond is to scare the pants off of McClellan" as Lee was OTL, but if he has an army roughly equivalent to what Lee had in the Seven Days that would be close to numerical parity with McClellan.
What do you think Johnston might have tried if he hadn't taken that wound?
Johnston seems to me like he'd be reluctant to be as fully "the best way to defend Richmond is to scare the pants off of McClellan" as Lee was OTL, but if he has an army roughly equivalent to what Lee had in the Seven Days that would be close to numerical parity with McClellan.
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Well, according to Craig Symonds, he wanted to continue the battle the next day, but there's little hope, I think, of much success at Seven Pines after the botched attack of the first day considering Sumner had managed to bring troops in support of Keyes and Hintzelman was nearby. I expect, therefore, that the battle would likely not continue beyond the second day, even it was handled differently from OTL when G.W. Smith oversaw events.
McClellan's reaction would be unchanged regardless of Johnston not being wounded and he would move most of his army south of the Chickahominy and look to bring his seige weapons up. Johnston would, as Lee did, see the opportunity of the isolated Federal Corps on the North side of the river and look to strike that, but he would have to reorganize his army before he could do so because he would have to integrate Theophilus Holmes and Roswell Ripley's forces as well as replace wounded or killed officers.
JEB Stuart's ride around McClellan likely doesn't happen, at least on the same scale, as Johnston is unlikely to be willing to release his cavalry to conduct reconnaissance in force in that manner. He would rely on Stuart to conduct some reconnaissance, and Stuart may decided to attempt such a ride regardless, but I dont think Johnston himself would give permission to ride off with a large force of cavalry and would prefer them to remain close to the Army.
The actions in the Valley, we can assume, will not be effected by Johnston remaining in command of the ANV because Jackson was operating independently of him at that time anyway, and one assumes that Lee - operating as effectively the theater commander in Virginia - would see McClellan as the immediate threat after the Valley Campaign had concluded even if he wasn't commanding the ANV and would call Jackson's forces to Richmond to act against it.
This would give Johnston command of the largest Confederate Army ever assembled. He would not wait for the Federal siege guns to come up, because he knows the Confederates have no answer to that, and he would not give up Richmond because he himself recognized that the ANV lost the means to sustain itself if Richmond fell.
He is compelled to attack at this moment and he would definitely attempt to hit Fitz John Porter's Corps at Mechanicsville. Much there depends on the arrival of Jackson and whether he performs well - he didn't in OTL - but, beyond that Johnston knows he has to attack and drive McClellan away, there's no other option at this time for the commander of the Confederate forces, he certainly not going to be as aggressive as Lee in doing so but I consider McClellan losing his nerve and pulling out just as likely an outcome.
