WI: Johnny Carson Worked Up to the End

Carson retired in 1992, amid a growing Shakespearean intrigue behind the scenes at NBC. Said matter lead to the Late Night Wars with Letterman leaving for CBS, and Leno taking over the Tonight Show amid bad will which, while it diminished over decades, lingered in the background and erupted in similar fashion when Conan O'Brien took over the Tonight Show. Carson had been an institution. His power on the public and his power at NBC was astounding, and something another host has not been able to approach. The threat of Carson leaving, up until 1992, could undo whole corporate administrations at NBC. And he understood and used that power. Though challenged by the emergence of Arsenio Hall, he was never usurped. And though aging, he was not diminishing.

Critically, the general consensus is that there has never been another host like Johnny Carson. That may be a matter that Carson stayed on for so long that when he left, there was no one groomed and experienced enough to truly replace him. All hosts are compared to Carson, and generally found wanting for the comparison. Carson lived for over a decade after his retirement. And that leads to the question at hand. What if Carson had remained with the Tonight Show up till the end, when he discovered he was terminally ill in the early 2000s?
 
Had Carson stayed at NBC till the very end...

Maybe Letterman still goes to CBS, while Leno either goes to Fox or sticks with stand up and Doritos commercials?
 
Had Carson stayed at NBC till the very end...

Maybe Letterman still goes to CBS, while Leno either goes to Fox or sticks with stand up and Doritos commercials?

I think Letterman would be ok with it, perhaps so long as he built up his own position at NBC, perhaps had a guest host gig, etc. Leno ... Leno would run where the money was, go to Fox, ABC or CBS in a second, and say so long Johnny even if it screwed over Carson or intended to screw over Carson. Carson, for his part, would then absolutely hate Leno and do everything in his power to knock him down. And that would include letting Letterman guest host the show. Perhaps something like sharing half and half duties on hosting the show as the 1990s progressed, and placing him in a position to just take over the whole thing sooner rather than later, not even waiting until 2000-something to do so. As it was, it seems it was more Leno getting on the networks good side, becoming permanent guest host in the 80s despite himself and despite Carson because NBC wanted it, and then using that position to push out Carson like a spoiled child taking over the candy store he just got a job in from the kindly shop owner that gave him the chance in the first place. *Catches breathe*. Honestly, a gradual and well handled transition as I mentioned would have been for the best. Carson wanted Letterman. Carson could further groom and support Letterman. And in such a scenario, the Tonight Show would remain an institution. Rather than one only so long as we pretended Leno did not steal the show, held on for lackluster years with a lackluster audience that would be offended by jokes Carson's show would use (as seen if you ever watch Don Rickles on Leno), did nothing with it yet did not want to leave because he has severe fears of any financial doubt, and then undercut Conan by not leaving, hitting his ratings with a lackluster show right before his (and forcing him to be a followup even with the Tonight Show), and then blaming precisely the problem he caused as forcing his hand, and coming back and taking it over which is what he wanted to begin with. From 1992 until the late 2000s, the Tonight Show was a tarnished legacy precisely because it was the show as the network wanted it and as Leno wanted it as a network yesman, with a lot of dirty tricks to get it. And precisely because it was not the show as Carson had wanted it, Letterman had wanted it, Conan had wanted it, or any of the other people with a true passion and energy and respect for that show had wanted it.
 
When exactly did Johnny find out he was ill? Was it just before he died (say, within a year) or was it before then?

I'm not sure that Mondays and Tuesdays (assuming that Johnny would allow a new show on Tuesdays instead of reruns) would be enough for Dave long term. Plus, how would NBC handle the prospect of one show done on two different coasts, since Dave would conceivably still do Late Night from New York on the nights he wasn't subbing for Johnny? Would he give up a steady five-night-a-week gig to do someone else's show twice a week, even if it was The Tonight Show? Would Johnny allow Tonight to be done from New York twice a week?I guess it would come down to whether CBS wanted Letterman or Leno more, and how much they would pay for either. Jay would be more likely to wait around for Johnny to quit, since he still had stand-up gigs and such, but how long would he wait?

And is it just possible that CBS would see the logjam coming down the pike and decide to go for the big prize, The Master himself? It would have taken some almighty doing, to be sure, but I have a feeling that there would have been an open studio at Television City with Johnny, Ed, and Doc's names in the appropriate places should he have given the word. A guest host may have been a problem with Leno presumably out of the equation, but I'm sure there were a lot of young comedians in the Letterman mold who would have jumped at the chance to follow The King of Late Night and possibly succeed him. As for a title, how about Here's Johnny?


 
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The demos on Carson's show were beginning to concern NBC, while it still brought in over $200 million in profits for NBC annually, the show was graying very significantly. OTL, Leno dropped the average age demo down about 10 years...in a very similar manner to what Conan and Fallon both did to the average age demos when they took over. If Carson stays, it probably causes an awkward conversation about the future by about 1994. Helen Kushnick will force the issue, so Leno probably goes to CBS. Letterman wanted the tonight show very badly, but was fine with the status-quo Carson/Letterman/Costas lineup, it was the idea that he was now being passed over and there was no chance at NBC for the 11:30EST spot, for Jay Leno of all people, that caused him to bolt.
 
The demos on Carson's show were beginning to concern NBC, while it still brought in over $200 million in profits for NBC annually, the show was graying very significantly. OTL, Leno dropped the average age demo down about 10 years...in a very similar manner to what Conan and Fallon both did to the average age demos when they took over. If Carson stays, it probably causes an awkward conversation about the future by about 1994. Helen Kushnick will force the issue, so Leno probably goes to CBS. Letterman wanted the tonight show very badly, but was fine with the status-quo Carson/Letterman/Costas lineup, it was the idea that he was now being passed over and there was no chance at NBC for the 11:30EST spot, for Jay Leno of all people, that caused him to bolt.

But Leno was initially doing badly, and was doing worse with ratings compared to Letterman until the Hugh Grant interview in 1995. And that demographic did not keep up. Leno's audience was less hip than Carson's audience for goodness sake. And that segment of the audience (which was the audience to get for a host) did not stay with Leno as time went on either. Leno started out lackluster and remained so. He never built up anything. The Tonight Show went from an event to background static in bedrooms. And one of the things Fallon did was make it something again, in his defense. The thing about Carson too, which not enough hosts do, especially not Leno: it was not about him. He recognized you had to let the guest talk, and you were just there to bolster them up. And you should feel comfortable as king of your domain to give them the floor. Leno interrupted. Even Fallon interrupts.
 
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But Leno was initially doing badly, and was doing worse with ratings compared to Letterman until the Hugh Grant interview in 1995. And that demographic did not keep up. Leno's audience was less hip than Carson's audience for goodness sake. And that segment of the audience (which was the audience to get for a host) did not stay with Leno as time went on either. Leno started out lackluster and remained so. He never built up anything. The Tonight Show went from an event to background static in bedrooms. And one of the things Fallon did was make it something again, in his defense. The thing about Carson too, which not enough hosts do, especially not Leno: it was not about him. He recognized you had to let the guest talk, and you were just there to bolster them up. And you should feel comfortable as king of your domain to give them the floor. Leno interrupted. Even Fallon interrupts.

I'm a Letterman person myself. From what I've gathered reading the Late Shift, Bill Carter's excellent book on the subject, Leno was seen by NBC execs John Agolia and Warren Littlefield as more hip than Carson with younger viewers (I know....this seems insane now). Leno's agent, Helen Kushnick planted this story that got the ball rolling:
In 1991 sentiment had grown in some quarters of NBC's management that the "Tonight" franchise was in jeopardy. Carson was still king, but his audience was getting older, a bad development for business because television advertisers always prefer younger viewers. Though nothing was said overtly, some executives clearly believed the sooner Jay Leno succeeded Johnny Carson the better it would be for NBC's late-night franchise. Leno would never dream of pressing the point himself, but he had an advocate who did not hesitate to campaign tirelessly on his behalf. Helen Kushnick had been Leno's manager since 1975, when she spotted him at the Comedy Store. (For a brief time she had managed David Letterman as well.) Kushnick saw Leno as the comic of the future and set out to place him where she believed he belonged -- in Johnny Carson's chair.

In February 1991 Kushnick still did not have a firm date from NBC for Carson's retirement -- and she was getting impatient. Using an associate in New York as a go-between, Kushnick hatched a plan to force the issue. "She asked me to plant a story somewhere," the associate said. Kushnick wanted the story in a New York newspaper; she wanted it to get great play and to have absolutely no fingerprints, no attribution at all.

The story was to say that top NBC executives wanted Johnny Carson out. His audience was getting too old. Jay Leno was in the wings, attracting much younger audiences when he guest-hosted; therefore the advertisers had started to prefer him to Johnny.

Here's the full story I quoted above.

Looking back on it, much of Leno's success was over things that were ultimately outside of the control of the two hosts. CBS lost football in 1994, which not only caused a direct ratings hit, but also led to a series of events where Fox bought CBS affiliates in major markets that relegated CBS, which previously held down 1st or 2nd place affiliates to distant UHF frequencies (CBS62 in Detroit, CBS58 in Milwaukee, for example) and made them non-competitive from a ratings standpoint. CBS' content during this time also fell apart, and they made horrible programming decisions until Les Moonves got hired a decade later. This is in sharp contrast to NBC, which by the mid-90s was coming in first place multiple nights per week, carried this strong lead in to local news that was often in first or second place, and then dumped that lead on to Leno at 11:30.
 
I'm reviewing the example of what preceded Carson. And the situation of example is Jack Paar. Jack Paar got out when he felt like it, and handed the show off to Carson. It was not immediate, as Carson had to burn off his hosting gig on whatever game show it was he hosted. So in the interregnum, it was a series of guest hosts for several months until Carson could take over. And it had been the host handing off the show to a person they thought was a good successor, and this select club. Steve Allen would show up on Carson, and so would Jack Paar. That would be the way to handle it with the Tonight Show after Carson, but NBC has done the exact things wrong each time in botching it, as the show had done the opposite exact thing right in transitions before Carson. So it tarnished the legacy, and there was no exclusive close knit group of hosts giving their support to Leno. Carson did not want Leno. Carson gave more support to Letterman.

This scenario is two ideas in tandem. One is the change over being handled better. And one is Carson staying on longer. And the latter lends to the idea of the former. Better handled and handled like Paar did, it would be Carson leaving, an interregnum period until Letterman could take his place, and then Letterman taking that place. And in such a scenario, you have the full weight of the Tonight Show backing the next host. As it was, Leno took on the brand and the momentum, but none of the soul. And it really has tarnished the show. I would argue it would be a better show today, regardless of the host, had it been like that. And in the meanwhile, Leno would go where the money was. Fox or ABC or even CBS would send out offers, and he would dump Carson in a second for the money and job. And going by the example of Joan Rivers, Carson would hate him for it. Also going by the example of Joan Rivers, if he went to Fox, he would stand a good chance of being canceled. Fox was a bad network for stability at the time. And it still remains their practice that if a show does not immediately make a huge hit, there is no regard for building up an audience or where the numbers may lead next season. They will cancel it.

On a personal note, my own perception of the problem after Carson is that...everyone before Carson and Carson himself acted like a grownup. They acted like they were meant to be there. It was not about them. They were good at bolstering the guests, and having banter with the guests, and putting in their part but not making it all about them. Nonetheless, they acted like they deserved to be there, so they had presence. And they had personality, and were funny. Even if you did not find them funny, you could tell they were funny in their own way. The problem after Carson was that it was hosts who acted like kids. They ran over their guests, they made it too much about them, they got (in Leno's case) offended by their guests and got passive aggressive. I would not necessarily say that about Conan, but I will say that about Fallon. That is the weird thing about these shows and their hosts. You can see the hosts as intermediate steps between each other. Carson had Jack Paar in him in terms of the professionalism and banter and dialogue with guests and playfulness, but also had a wackier, cool, humorous attitude and comedy and he fits as a intermediate between Paar and Letterman. Letterman was the latter but less of the former. He was zany, but he also had an attitude that he was king of his domain without question. And he had that Boomer attitude to screw it, its only television. And boy, isn't this dumb. And Conan is an evolution off of the Letterman species of that split evolution. Even when Letterman got more straight laced, Conan was still taking a maturing but still present continuation of 80s Letterman. Fallon is somewhat an attempt at a Carson, but he evolves out of the Leno species of that split, and you can tell. And then you have the outliers of the other shows and their many hosts over time. Frankly, I think the most similar personality to Carson is Jimmy Kimmel, God help me.

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Also on a personal note, I don't think Leno is a bad guy. I don't think he is an unfunny comedian. But my take on the matter is once he got the show, he changed. His material was lackluster, and I never found him funny as a host. It feels like he had this potential that got him the job in the first place, but that he gave up on when he got the job. Maybe he would have been better as a sidekick more than a host.
 
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I'm a Letterman person myself. From what I've gathered reading the Late Shift, Bill Carter's excellent book on the subject, Leno was seen by NBC execs John Agolia and Warren Littlefield as more hip than Carson with younger viewers (I know....this seems insane now). Leno's agent, Helen Kushnick planted this story that got the ball rolling:

Here's the full story I quoted above.

Looking back on it, much of Leno's success was over things that were ultimately outside of the control of the two hosts. CBS lost football in 1994, which not only caused a direct ratings hit, but also led to a series of events where Fox bought CBS affiliates in major markets that relegated CBS, which previously held down 1st or 2nd place affiliates to distant UHF frequencies (CBS62 in Detroit, CBS58 in Milwaukee, for example) and made them non-competitive from a ratings standpoint. CBS' content during this time also fell apart, and they made horrible programming decisions until Les Moonves got hired a decade later. This is in sharp contrast to NBC, which by the mid-90s was coming in first place multiple nights per week, carried this strong lead in to local news that was often in first or second place, and then dumped that lead on to Leno at 11:30.

Another part of the problems that CBS ran into was the spending policies enacted by then CEO Laurence Tisch and the network due to the loss of the NFC games to Fox (Which allowed that network to reach new heights) had truly learned the hard way was that Money talks. A known fact about Les Moonves was that he came over to CBS (He joined in July 1995) practically around the same time that Westinghouse had bought out the network. CBS started it's turn around in the late 1990's when it gotten the AFC games from NBC and the AFC becoming the dominant conference over the NFC with the network thanks to the decisions by Moonves and a string of successful hits was back on top in 2003 (In terms of Total Viewership) while NBC started to fall apart in the ratings for several years (The Olympic Games and NBC getting Sunday Night Football from ESPN in 2006 kept it from being effectively run into the ground) only recovering after Comcast took over now NBC has ratings success in the 18 to 49 Demographic.
 
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