WI: Johnny Carson Replacements

Before Carson finally retired in 1992, there had been a number of times he could have left the Tonight Show. There was also always the prospect of him retiring beyond the OTL possibilities, or potentially dying or whatever the case may have been. There were certainly a number of guest hosts or other potential people who could have taken the reigns permanently. The purpose of this thread, which has been a long time coming from me, is to discuss who could succeed Carson throughout the ages to host the Tonight Show. Carson had a long run, from 1962 to 1992, so different hosts would be worlds apart from one another.
 
One that immediately comes to mind is Jerry Lewis, who did guest host in the 1960s and could have taken that position on a permanent basis. Lewis did host his own talk shows, though they failed. And he also played the role of a popular talk show host in The King of Comedy, which could give you an idea of how Lewis would look a decade and a half on from assuming that role.

I don't know how well Lewis would do as a permanent host. On the scale of Carson to Leno, I think he'd more lean Carson. He did have a suave sex idol vibe to him in this era, but it could also come off (and did) as smug and too full of himself. Orson Welles made fun of him on the Dick Cavett show for speaking in these floaty BS terms to sound smart, instead of talking normal.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ifa0jXLLMug
 
Carson actually did get really close to leaving in 1980. However, NBC upped his salary to some huge number north of $20 million per year, and gave him ownership of the Tonight Show. But I can't think of any obvious replacement. Since this was pre-Tartikoff, I just assume NBC would have screwed up the replacement.

From 1983-86 when she was guest host, Joan Rivers may have taken it over? I believe from 1988 on, Jay Leno had a secret Prince of Whales clause in his contract after NBC got concerned when CBS started pursuing him.
 
Letterman could have taken over depending on if Carson left in the mid-late 1980s/1990s or even in 1992. Letterman was Carson's preferred successor. It'd be interesting to see him compete with Leno getting a talk show on CBS. I don't think Leno would have done well. He wouldn't have the Tonight Show to use, and OTL he was losing to Letterman in the ratings prior to the Hugh Grant interview in 1995.

It's old hat to bash Leno, but he was not a good host. He didn't have good rapport with his guests, he didn't tell good jokes, and with Leno, the Tonight Show lost it's vibe of being an event. Fallon brought that back. Say what you may, but Fallon has been very good at making an interesting show around him if not because of him specifically, and that's what Carson did. Leno had a very lame audience that were more conservative than the Carson audience, which you may think would be old and conservative. Carson's show could get a little raunchy, and that was the fun. You can literally find clips of Rodney Dangerfield and Don Rickles doing the sort of material they did on Carson on Leno, and the audience reacting with this uncomfortableness and sometimes revulsion like they had gone too far (and at worst, not getting the joke). That's how lame Leno's audience was. Just these Middle America lame-os on vacation with a deep existential terror over the fact that they own genitalia.

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Leno and his iteration of the Tonight Show honestly feels like a cruise ship comic on some sort of family or 40-something cruise, or maybe a show in Branson, Missouri. He fits the mold, he's just the right niche to be a headliner on something that like, but he's not good enough to have a career elsewhere, and you might as well see him for something to do. And in his own world, he's a major thing. But it's something of what a modern person thinks the old school showbiz was like, and maybe the audience thinks it too, while not actually being what they were like. And that is shown by the example of when Leno brought old school people on his show only for the audience to not get them or not like them. The headliner is a bowdlerized sellout, and the audience is just plain afraid of the world outside their bubble of comfort.
 
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I generally agree with that Leno analysis. Bill Carter's books on Late Night give a pretty fair look at everything without really taking a side on any of it. Conan's people were always really annoyed with Leno for basically doing the cruise ship metaphor that you described. They thought a road cone could have had huge ratings in the 90s when NBC was killing it in the ratings, and Leno never did anything that was all that groundbreaking.

There is no way of proving this correct or not, but I always assumed that Leno would not have been able to pull off what Letterman did at CBS in creating a long running show after exiting NBC. Sure, at some point, the Tonight Show late night monopoly was going to be watered-down, but not in the same way that Letterman did, in overnight creating another viable franchise.

Another thing that killed Letterman around 1995 was CBS' sudden ratings decline from a moribund primetime lineup, and then losing the NFL contract. The NFL contract hurt twice over too, because they lost a ton of promotional opportunities, as well as prime affiliates in major networks that realigned to FOX to carry NFC games, leaving CBS deep into UHF in many cities. For example, in Milwaukee, CBS went from channel 6 to channel 58, in Atlanta CBS went from channel 5 to channel 46, in Detroit they went from channel 2 to channel 62. There were prime markets that suddenly were getting buried in stations that were at the end of the dial, and often lacked strong signals, which really started to sag Letterman's ratings.
 
I remember reading somewhere that Jack Paar wanted Merv Griffin to succeed him as host of The Tonight Show. Merv's daytime show debuted the same day (October 1, 1962) as Johnny took over as TTS host.

I think Merv Griffin, Joey Bishop (who guest hosted a lot during this era), and Jerry Lewis would've been candidates for the job. Another option could have been (and don't laugh) Bob Barker. Carson like Barker both hosted game shows in the 1950s and early 60s. Another possibility could've been Steve Allen or Jack Paar returning as hosts.

In the 1970s I think possible candidates could have been again Merv Griffin and Joey Bishop. Candidates like Dick Smothers and Bob Newhart would have been considered in the early 1970s. By the late 1970s Silverman's NBC in an attempt to try to be hip and reach the younger viewers could offered the job to Steve Martin (who would have said no so he could make movies) or Chevy Chase (who would have said yes and been a disaster). I would also include Bill Cosby here, but I think even in the late 1970s a major network wouldn't have given an African-American a prominent position like that. I mean even today outside of Trevor Noah, no other black person has been made host of an already established late night talk show. And that didn't even happen until just this year. I did a thread about this a few years ago and made Rich Little, Johnny's successor.

In the early 1980s I think people like Chevy Chase and John Davidson. Maybe Bill Cosby but I still doubt they would have given him the job. Even though I think Joan Rivers would have been a candidate. Her comedy was too vicious for her to be the permanent host. She might have been too urban to appeal to middle America, especially during the Reagan "Morning in America" era.

By the late 1980s and early 90s the candidates are the ones we already know about, David Letterman, Jay Leno, Garry Shandling. Maybe Dennis Miller, Arsenio Hall, or Dana Carvey by the early 1990s.
 
George Carlin come you know you would want to watch it just for the first opening monologue where he would go "Shit, piss, fuck, cunt, cocksucker, motherfucker, and tits okay thats over with lets get on with the show".
 
What's the earliest date Letterman could have taken it over without it being too soon, perception-wise? 1985?
 
What's the earliest date Letterman could have taken it over without it being too soon, perception-wise? 1985?


1986. He would have had four years under his belt as host of Late Night at that point. Plus I believe he hosted the Emmys that year and NBC gave him some prime-time specials to host around that time too.

I think if Joan Rivers' show on FOX had been a success and serious competition for Johnny. I could see NBC possibly making moves in 1987 to sort of push Johnny out of the chair. It would have been 25 years at that point and Johnny married his fourth and final wife that same year. So maybe he'd say I have plenty of money, a new young wife, and 25 years of being host of The Tonight Show under my belt. His television legacy would have been established. So Letterman would have been in a great position to become host in 1987.

But Letterman wasn't a RCA or GE kiss ass and he was already extremely stressed out as the host of Late Night at the time. I could only imagine the stress he would have had (and the stress he'd put on his staff) as host of TTS. Then add trying to replace a legend like Johnny Carson to that stress. Plus the NBC executives didn't think Letterman could appeal to middle America. Carson had universal appeal. Letterman's comedy wasn't for everybody. Not everybody would've been able to "get the joke" and understand why a monkey-cam was funny.

Ultimately the way things worked out in OTL was probably for the best for Letterman. Getting his own 11:30 show on CBS instead of replacing Carson on The Tonight Show was better for Letterman's career and the careers of many others.

In TTL Joan's show is a success on FOX meaning there is no Arsenio Hall Show which could've hurt the careers of many minority entertainers who got maximum exposure on his show. CBS might have given Jay Leno an 11:30 talk show in 1989 instead of Pat Sajak. Leno likely would have been more successful than Sajak was in OTL. Conan O'Brien never becomes a TV host. With Letterman becoming TTS host in 1987, Craig Kilborn doesn't become host of The Late Late Show on CBS in 1999, meaning Jon Stewart likely never becomes host of The Daily Show that same year. Meaning people like Stephen Colbert, Steve Carell, and many others have different career paths without The Daily Show.
 
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