WI: John Thune runs for President in 2012

In 2012, there was a lot of speculation surrounding whether or not Senator John Thune of South Dakota was going to run for President. Relatively young, telegenic, and a seemingly common sense conservative, he was seen as a possibly sensible choice over the more firebrand conservatives like Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, and Newt Gingrich, and over a flip-flopping unreliable Mitt Romney. He had potential Rust Belt appeal due to his proximity to the state of Iowa. However, he ruled it out, and admitted in 2016 that his window might have closed.

What if John Thune decided to run in 2012? Could he have made it against Romney in the primaries? Could he have beaten Obama in an election where he was seen as vulnerable?
 
In 2012, there was a lot of speculation surrounding whether or not Senator John Thune of South Dakota was going to run for President. Relatively young, telegenic, and a seemingly common sense conservative, he was seen as a possibly sensible choice over the more firebrand conservatives like Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, and Newt Gingrich, and over a flip-flopping unreliable Mitt Romney. He had potential Rust Belt appeal due to his proximity to the state of Iowa. However, he ruled it out, and admitted in 2016 that his window might have closed.

What if John Thune decided to run in 2012? Could he have made it against Romney in the primaries? Could he have beaten Obama in an election where he was seen as vulnerable?
A helpful POD could be Mitt Romney winning the nomination in 2008 and selecting John Thune as his vice presidential nominee. Conservatives found Thune acceptable when speculated by the media. This would give him name recognition and influence over the Tea Party like OTL's Sarah Palin had.

During ATL 2012's Primaries, Romney wouldn't run, having lost four years prior, but Thune would have the name recognition of having been the VP nominee. Thune could probably win Iowa, which gives him initial traction. Without Romney, there may be additional candidates who did not run in ATL.

Against Obama, the election is probably closer because of Thune's foothold in the Rust Belt, however, Obama still wins re-election.
 
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In 2012, there was a lot of speculation surrounding whether or not Senator John Thune of South Dakota was going to run for President. Relatively young, telegenic, and a seemingly common sense conservative, he was seen as a possibly sensible choice over the more firebrand conservatives like Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, and Newt Gingrich, and over a flip-flopping unreliable Mitt Romney. He had potential Rust Belt appeal due to his proximity to the state of Iowa. However, he ruled it out, and admitted in 2016 that his window might have closed.

What if John Thune decided to run in 2012? Could he have made it against Romney in the primaries? Could he have beaten Obama in an election where he was seen as vulnerable?

Thune potentially could've won Iowa, but he'd be facing an uphill climb against Romney's money and Santorum's support from the conservative base. Romney probably still wins New Hampshire, which would blunt whatever momentum Thune gets from his Iowa performance.

In the event that he does win the nomination, Thune probably loses to Obama. In 2012 voters were still hesitant to return to the GOP so soon after George W. Bush, and although the economy wasn't great it was improving and this helped Obama. You'd need to switch at least 3.5% of the vote from Obama to Thune in order for the Republicans to win, which wouldn't happen outside of an amazing performance by Thune.
 
Thune potentially could've won Iowa, but he'd be facing an uphill climb against Romney's money and Santorum's support from the conservative base. Romney probably still wins New Hampshire, which would blunt whatever momentum Thune gets from his Iowa performance.

In the event that he does win the nomination, Thune probably loses to Obama. In 2012 voters were still hesitant to return to the GOP so soon after George W. Bush, and although the economy wasn't great it was improving and this helped Obama. You'd need to switch at least 3.5% of the vote from Obama to Thune in order for the Republicans to win, which wouldn't happen outside of an amazing performance by Thune.

Romney was, in many ways, the last candidate Republicans wanted to nominate in my opinion. He was a massive flip-floppier, prone to gaffes, only put in one term as a Governor, and laid the framework for ObamaCare. Republicans were looking for a candidate who could be the anti-Romney.

Thune could have been a concensus choice conservative instead of a controversial firebrand like Perry or Santorum. In a way, I could see Thune beating Obama. People say that it was Obama’s election to lose in 2012, and with the right candidate, he could have been beaten (Hell, there was good speculation that Romney could have won in the last few weeks). Thune is not someone who appears to be prone to the same faults as Romney. Obama couldn’t paint Thune as a greedy, rich businessman who can’t relate to ordinary people, since Thune was so damn popular in his state with working class people (he faced zero opposition in his Senate reelection in 2010).

In terms of support from the conservative base, again, Thune is pretty conservative, but he isn’t far out there like Santorum. I believe he could even take away some support from Santorum with effort.
 
Being in Congress and Senate, his votes for policies that led to the Great Recession and the Iraq War would be go-to hits by Obama. In particular, his vote against the auto bailout would likely cost Michigan and Ohio.
 
Being in Congress and Senate, his votes for policies that led to the Great Recession and the Iraq War would be go-to hits by Obama. In particular, his vote against the auto bailout would likely cost Michigan and Ohio.

Granted, any Republican would be facing that criticism from Obama. I think Thune could’ve handled it better than Romney.

Let’s face it, Thune probably wouldn’t win Michigan. Ohio is a tossup (since it’s close for pretty much every election). As for other Rust Belt states, he might be competitive in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, probably more the latter since it was pretty close OTL. I see a path to victory for him in Wisconsin’s more suburban and rural districts, but it’d be a close victory for him.
 
When it comes to Thune’s path to victory, in our timeline, it only took three states to flip to give Romney the election: Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida, all states that Obama narrowly won. Thune technically doesn’t even need the rest of the rust belt (Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan).

Besides the Rust Belt, what about states that Bush won like Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, New Mexico, and New Hampshire? Could they potentially throw their votes for Thune ITTL? (New Mexico, IMO, might be a lost cause at this point)
 
Thune-Pawlenty doubling down on the midwest could be a smart move. It could put Minnesota in play and perform a bit better in Iowa than Romney did.

Florida is kind-of midwestern in the sense that there are a lot of midwestern retirees/transplants.

But MN, IA, and FL only gets you to to 257.



If there's one lesson to be learned from 2016 vis a vis 2008-2012 and 2000-2004, it's that the GOP's issue wasn't conservatives in 2008-2012. The issue was secularish cultural conservative populists not coming out for them in 2008-2012. Trump's 2016 map was pretty similar to Bush in 2000 and 2004 when you look at the margins. GOP needs a populist ticket that gets northern cultural conservatives, southern/midwestern social conservatives, and mainstream conservatives out to the polls.

Does Thune do that?
 
When it comes to Thune’s path to victory, in our timeline, it only took three states to flip to give Romney the election: Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida, all states that Obama narrowly won. Thune technically doesn’t even need the rest of the rust belt (Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan).

Besides the Rust Belt, what about states that Bush won like Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, New Mexico, and New Hampshire? Could they potentially throw their votes for Thune ITTL? (New Mexico, IMO, might be a lost cause at this point)

Obama won PA with almost 52% of the vote. (51.97%) Romney didn't even get 47% (He got 46.59%). That's a margin of 5.38%, much more decisive than Obama's victories in Ohio and Florida.

As for any other states that Thune could flip, being a Midwesterner he could do better in Iowa. I don't think he'd flip NH: if a New Englander couldn't do it, then I doubt Thune could either.
 
Obama won PA with almost 52% of the vote. (51.97%) Romney didn't even get 47% (He got 46.59%). That's a margin of 5.38%, much more decisive than Obama's victories in Ohio and Florida.

As for any other states that Thune could flip, being a Midwesterner he could do better in Iowa. I don't think he'd flip NH: if a New Englander couldn't do it, then I doubt Thune could either.

Huh, I thought Pennsylvania was closer. My bad.

Florida and Ohio are definitely in play. What about the states like Nevada, Virginia, and Colorado? You think Thune has a shot there?

Also, who would be his VP? That could also help.
 
Thune-Pawlenty doubling down on the midwest could be a smart move. It could put Minnesota in play and perform a bit better in Iowa than Romney did.

Florida is kind-of midwestern in the sense that there are a lot of midwestern retirees/transplants.

But MN, IA, and FL only gets you to to 257.



If there's one lesson to be learned from 2016 vis a vis 2008-2012 and 2000-2004, it's that the GOP's issue wasn't conservatives in 2008-2012. The issue was secularish cultural conservative populists not coming out for them in 2008-2012. Trump's 2016 map was pretty similar to Bush in 2000 and 2004 when you look at the margins. GOP needs a populist ticket that gets northern cultural conservatives, southern/midwestern social conservatives, and mainstream conservatives out to the polls.

Does Thune do that?

I don’t think Thune puts Pawlenty on the ticket. By 2012, I don’t think he was that popular within his own party, and even within his own state. I think Thune might have been safer off picking someone with an appeal like Mitch Daniels. He’s not a hardcore conservative, but that’s what Thune is for. Daniels is a popular governor of Indiana. He has Rust Belt appeal, but I believe that a combined ticket of Thune and Daniels could turn out a substantial amount of people.

The Romney-Ryan ticket turned off people because Ryan had the controversial budget deal on him, so much that they couldn’t even win Ryan’s home state of Wisconsin. Mitch Daniels doesn’t have too many controversies (maybe besides the teacher’s strike in Indiana), so he’s probably a safer bet.

Other choices could be Rob Portman (he could win Ohio this way), Bobby Jindal (educated conservative who could possibly energize minority voters), Chris Christie (attracts independents and moderates), Bob McDonnell (another popular governor; puts Virginia in play), and Pat Toomey (puts Pennsylvania in play).
 
I don’t think Thune puts Pawlenty on the ticket. By 2012, I don’t think he was that popular within his own party, and even within his own state. I think Thune might have been safer off picking someone with an appeal like Mitch Daniels. He’s not a hardcore conservative, but that’s what Thune is for. Daniels is a popular governor of Indiana. He has Rust Belt appeal, but I believe that a combined ticket of Thune and Daniels could turn out a substantial amount of people.

The Romney-Ryan ticket turned off people because Ryan had the controversial budget deal on him, so much that they couldn’t even win Ryan’s home state of Wisconsin. Mitch Daniels doesn’t have too many controversies (maybe besides the teacher’s strike in Indiana), so he’s probably a safer bet.

Other choices could be Rob Portman (he could win Ohio this way), Bobby Jindal (educated conservative who could possibly energize minority voters), Chris Christie (attracts independents and moderates), Bob McDonnell (another popular governor; puts Virginia in play), and Pat Toomey (puts Pennsylvania in play).


Christie is very charismatic and very forceful. I think he'd be a very good advocate for Thune as VP.

Portman and Toomey are also very good options.

I'm not sure how good Jindal would be, but having been Deputy HHS Secretary he'd be a decent-ish foil to Obama. Plus in Louisiana he was a big education reformer IIRC.
 
Christie is very charismatic and very forceful. I think he'd be a very good advocate for Thune as VP.

Portman and Toomey are also very good options.

I'm not sure how good Jindal would be, but having been Deputy HHS Secretary he'd be a decent-ish foil to Obama. Plus in Louisiana he was a big education reformer IIRC.

I still believe Mitch Daniels would be the best choice. He’s a more moderate-leaning conservative, while Thune is the traditional conservative. Jindal would probably be second-best choice given his popularity at the time. Portman, Toomey, and Christie would probably all be great, too, although Toomey and Portman might come under fire for being in the Senate for only two years before becoming VP (even though Toomey is a former three-term Congressman and Portman is was six term Congressman, U.S. Trade Representative, and Director of the Office of Budget and Management before becoming a Senator). Christie might have betting problems, which is why the Romney campaign didn’t go for him IOTL.
 
Why is everyone so convinced that a guy from South Dakota has instant appeal to Michigan and Ohio? They’re extremely different states. Massachusetts is more closely related to them with the population centers, industrial decline, demographics, etc.

Thune was extremely on record against the auto bailout. He would do terribly in Michigan and Ohio.
 
Thune would do better than Romney, but that doesn't say much.

As far as VP selection, I'd say go for either Bobby Jindal (R-LA) or Bob McDonnell (R-VA). Both very popular governors, both conservative darlings, one locks down a swing state, the other might put some Asian/South Asian Americans in play, given the GOP still won some of those voters before 2016.

Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconson were all relatively close calls.

Of those, I think Ohio, Flordia and Virginia are the easiest to flip, especially since the first two it was a VERY close call even with Romney/Ryan, less than 3%.

That gets a potential Thune ticket to 267. Just flip either Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Hampshire or Iowa, and Thune wins.
 
Why is everyone so convinced that a guy from South Dakota has instant appeal to Michigan and Ohio? They’re extremely different states. Massachusetts is more closely related to them with the population centers, industrial decline, demographics, etc.

Thune was extremely on record against the auto bailout. He would do terribly in Michigan and Ohio.

So was Romney, and he still came within 3%. He even wrote an op-Ed in 2008 titled “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt,” then turned around in 2012 and said the bailout was his idea all along. If Romney can do all of that and still come within 3% in Ohio, I don’t see how Thune can’t do the same. I do agree, however, that Michigan is a lost cause for Thune, due to it not having the suburban or rural voting base that Wisconsin or Pennsylvania has.

I say that Thune might appeal to more suburban, rural voters because Thune is from a midwestern state. His state is very rural/suburban (more rural, however). He knows ways to appeal to those voters in the Rust Belt, more so than Romney ever could. If he can run up the margins in those rural and suburban counties, then it’s possible for him to win at least one Rust Belt state (more likely Pennsylvania or Wisconsin; Minnesota and Michigan are most likely out of Thune’s reach).
 
Thune would do better than Romney, but that doesn't say much.

As far as VP selection, I'd say go for either Bobby Jindal (R-LA) or Bob McDonnell (R-VA). Both very popular governors, both conservative darlings, one locks down a swing state, the other might put some Asian/South Asian Americans in play, given the GOP still won some of those voters before 2016.

Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconson were all relatively close calls.

Of those, I think Ohio, Flordia and Virginia are the easiest to flip, especially since the first two it was a VERY close call even with Romney/Ryan, less than 3%.

That gets a potential Thune ticket to 267. Just flip either Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Hampshire or Iowa, and Thune wins.

Minnesota may be out of Thune’s reach. Romney lost it by 8% OTL (Obama won 52%, Romney got siphoned off of by third parties), even if Thune runs up rural and suburban counties. It might be close, but I still think it’s out of his reach.

Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, and Florida are possibly the best states for Thune to flip. Possibly states like Nevada and Colorado, with some serious effort on Thune’s part.

Just a note: DNC Executive Director at the time, Jennifer O'Malley Dillon, said that, out of the OTL field of pretty flawed candidates, Thune was perhaps the only potential candidate that genuinely scared the Democratic Party. She cited the fact that she had worked for Tim Johnson (whim Thune narrowly upset in 2002) and Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle (who Thune upset it 2004), and that Thune was someone you could never count out whatsoever.
 
Thune didn't run because of concerns that his donor network wasn't big enough to match Romney's. I suspect he may also just have lacked the unwavering desire to be president that you have to have in order to run.

One potential POD is Romney winning the 2008 GOP nomination, which would leave the 2012 nomination a lot more open. In that case, I could see Thune deciding to make a bid, and he'd probably be a top contender. I don't see him doing substantially better than Romney in the general FWIW but who knows.
 
Thune didn't run because of concerns that his donor network wasn't big enough to match Romney's. I suspect he may also just have lacked the unwavering desire to be president that you have to have in order to run.

One potential POD is Romney winning the 2008 GOP nomination, which would leave the 2012 nomination a lot more open. In that case, I could see Thune deciding to make a bid, and he'd probably be a top contender. I don't see him doing substantially better than Romney in the general FWIW but who knows.

That first linked article also shows that he was very popular among both House and Senate Republicans. He probably could have matched Romney’s donor list by picking up endorsements from his colleagues in Congress.

In 2012, people were looking for the anti-Romney candidate, mostly because it was believed that Romney couldn’t beat Obama, and since Obama was possible to beat in 2012, Republicans wanted a candidate that could seal the deal. In my opinion, Thune could’ve, at the very least, closed the gap that separated Obama and Romney in the general election, both electoral and popular vote. Thune was without Romney’s gaffes, his political and business baggage, and had been the winner of elections in which he was an underdog: Winning his first primary election for Congress by defeating heavily favored Lieutenant Governor Carole Hillard, and beating Senate Leader Tom Daschle in 2004. He also came close to beating Tim Johnson in 2002, when polls showed him behind.
 
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