WI John Smith Survived?

What if John Smith survived his heart attack in 1994?

Now, this comes up once every while and it often concerns the same subject. What kind of Prime Minister would he be? After all, while it's often over-stated that Labour would have won a super-landslide with any leader, it's very unlikely that Smith's Labour couldn't have won at least a healthy majority coming into the next election. It makes sense that if Smith lived, he'd go on to win.

But would he? A 2nd near-fatal heart attack in six years isn't something you can just shrug off. There'd be concerns in the party, media, and Smith's own family about the fact that he's in a high-stress job and his heart might not be able to take it. Last time, he changed his diet and quit smoking, this time he might have to consider retiring. Smith survives, but goes on to retire from his position; whether just as Labour's leader, or as an MP altogether.

I don't think the dynamics of the leadership election would change too much. Others more knowledgeable will know better, but I don't think Smith would have had a preference between Blair, Brown, Beckett, and Prescott, and the TTL absence of his death won't change Blair's many advantages over Brown that led to him becoming the modernisation candidate. So Blair takes charge and Smith is either a Labour MP or a newly nominated Labour Peer. Considering the reasons for his standing down ITTL, I doubt he'd be given more than a safe Shadow Cabinet job, if that, but he would remain extremely popular in Labour and have a good amount of spiritual, if not outright direct, influence on party feeling.

Where am I going with this? Well, New Labour was a repudiation of what a lot of modernisers felt was Smith slacking on it; "one more heave" was the term for it, and if you look at Blair, Straw, etc's auto-biography's, there is the lingering frustration with Smith's perceived failings in this regard. It raises questions of how he'd take the spending pledge, an indirect rejection of the 1992 Manifesto which Smith felt was solid IOTL, and the pace of modernisation. He may be frustrated, but like a lot of those in Labour, the unease would be buried under the happiness of victory initially before the doubts pile up. Frank Dobson was close to him politically, IIRC, and when he gets chucked in 1999 for Alan Milburn and aspects of the Major-era health policy are brought back, there's going to be concerns. As an aside, I think if Smith backed Dobson in London, he might have done marginally better but not enough to escape form third place.

Post-2001, assuming no butterflies, it's going to be Iraq. If Smith, like a lot of Labour grandees/backbenchers, decide to put their faith in Blair and cautiously back it, it'll probably be mostly like OTL. If he isn't convinced, then that might lead to a backlash to the move and, if it doesn't stop Blair, it'd at least make it that more divisive in the division lobbies when the vote comes. Expect a lot of the 'Smith wasn't a real moderniser' line to be ramped up. By the time of public sector reforms coming into form, Smith may join others in Labour in coming out against them as well, which again only worsens the party split. He'd probably drift to Gordon Brown by 2002/3, especially when the latter positions himself as the Real Labour Alternative.

It's all a question of extent of activity and, morbidly, how long Smith actually has. It may be that he sinks into the background beyond a few statements to reflect party-base feeling, or he's more active and actually succeeds in having an impact beyond the leadership IOTL. I'm hesitant to say that he'd take Dewar's place with Scottish Devolution, having retired already ITTL, but I think it's an interesting ask to ask about the impact on Labour's dynamic with an ex-leader who's beloved by the base but semi-detached from the leadership.

Would he have had much direct influence, or would he just have caused some slight increases in party discontent and become the typical party grandee, only the OTL 'what could have been' takes a less morbid tone ITTL?
 
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They would have gotten a solid majority next election, however generally i think your overall assessment is pretty accurate. On Iraq i expect he'd back it but it wouldnt be because of Blair (who would be Home Secretary unless he'd moved to foreign sec which is possible), it would be his decision.

Winning for Labour alone would carry a lot of clout for him in the party so there would be few issues following his agenda which would likely look very similar to Blair's with a few added tweaks and a likely moderated foreign policy.

Overall i expect little would actually change tbh other than the name of the PM - more interestingly it might be less damaging to the tories in 1997 meaning their party may not be obliterated in the polls in '97 giving them somewhat of a chance for a hung parliament sooner than 2010. Though equally they may hang onto thatcherism more tightly rather than loosening up to Cameron. Portillo also may be leader if he wins reelection if Smith's majority isnt too massive.
 
They would have gotten a solid majority next election, however generally i think your overall assessment is pretty accurate. On Iraq i expect he'd back it but it wouldnt be because of Blair (who would be Home Secretary unless he'd moved to foreign sec which is possible), it would be his decision.

Winning for Labour alone would carry a lot of clout for him in the party so there would be few issues following his agenda which would likely look very similar to Blair's with a few added tweaks and a likely moderated foreign policy.

Overall i expect little would actually change tbh other than the name of the PM - more interestingly it might be less damaging to the tories in 1997 meaning their party may not be obliterated in the polls in '97 giving them somewhat of a chance for a hung parliament sooner than 2010. Though equally they may hang onto thatcherism more tightly rather than loosening up to Cameron. Portillo also may be leader if he wins reelection if Smith's majority isnt too massive.
I was more asking what impact Smith would have if, rather than dying, he resigned in 1994 because of the heart attack. Sort-of an elder statesman for the party and if that could yield a substantial effect on the New Labour years.
 
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