WI: John Major lost in 1995?

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
In June 22nd, 1995, John Major resigned as Leader of the Conservative Party to face party critics over his handling of the European Union. As the story goes, he was challenged by his Secretary of State for Wales, the Euroskeptic Thatcherite John Redwood, who proceed to loose Leadership to Major in a landslide.

What if, following Major's resignation as Leader, a stronger competitor emerged? Heseltine and Portillo were considered to stand, although both refused. If either jumped for it, could they have won? Could it have been possible for Redwood to beat Major?
 
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In June 22nd, 1995, John Major resigned as Leader of the Conservative Party to face party critics over his handling of the European Union. As the story goes, he was challenged by his Secretary of State for Wales, the Euroskeptic Thatcherite John Redford, who proceed to loose Leadership to Major in a landslide.

What if, following Major's resignation as Leader, a stronger competitor emerged? Heseltine and Portillo were considered to stand, although both refused. If either jumped for it, could they have won? Could it have been possible for Redford to beat Major?

Redwood was always a stalking horse candidate, very much an Dark Link version of Anthony Mayer (albeit with slightly more gravitas by dint of him being a Cabinet Minister). Major has noted on numerous occasions that he had made up his mind to resign if he received fewer than 215 votes. He received 218. It's not hard for two people to have a change of heart and back the challenger.

Redwood had no real ambition to be Prime Minister or Leader of the Tory Party, and I don't expect that he'd have bothered to actually put his name forward to the second round. Even if he had done, the main standard bearer for the right would have been Michael Portillo, who had already gone so far as to have had extra phone-lines installed in his private office to help facilitate the expected campaigning.

Portillo would have almost certainly square off against Michael Heseltine - who would be representing continuity Majorism, but with with a better image amongst the rest of the country. There's probably going to be a token candidacy from some nonentity from the bonkers wing of the party, and they'd get the customary fifteen votes from the various people who'd much rather bring back Enoch Powell.

Hezza would almost certainly beat Portillo in a direct fight (it was his last realistic chance of becoming Leader of the Conservative Party) and he probably would manage to do slightly better than Major in 1997, although there's also a risk that a general election would be forced in 1996 if the Maastricht Rebels go kamikaze, in which case it's anything from a Labour majority ranging from the fifties to approaching two-hundred, depending on how effectively New Labour can pivot.
 
There's probably going to be a token candidacy from some nonentity from the bonkers wing of the party, and they'd get the customary fifteen votes from the various people who'd much rather bring back Enoch Powell.
Annoyingly he was out of parliament at the time but that made me imagine Alan Clark standing for the leadership...
 
Annoyingly he was out of parliament at the time but that made me imagine Alan Clark standing for the leadership...

I rather believe that that was exaggeration for comic effect, dear fellow.

They actually probably can't manage to kick up enough votes to get Dame Jill Knight on the ballot paper, even if they'd wanted to, but I suspect that - in a Majorless second round - Norman Lamont would be very likely to stand. He'd already been effectively deselected after Richmond-upon-Thames had been abolished in the boundary review, and I can certainly see him wanting to 'prove his worth' ahead of any overtures towards another constituency association (he was a crap fit for Harrogate and would have probably struggled to win it, even without a Blair-led Labour Party).

Mmmmm - there's also a possibility of the two front-runners also trying to come to an agreement as well (perhaps at a lovely little Italian place in Islington?) - Portillo perhaps standing aside "in the sake of party unity" for Heseltine, who promptly wins, gives "Watch Out Behind You" the Treasury, and shunts Clarke off to the FCO? At once you've got a staunch Thatcherite in control of the economic leavers, but Europe is effectively sidelined. The Ultras would still grumble, but they'd have their head.
 
I rather believe that that was exaggeration for comic effect, dear fellow.

Clark was the sort of person who would stand based purely on personal ego, get just enough nominations then get zero votes in the actual contest (well, 1, I'm assuming he'd vote for himself).
 
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