WI: John Major in 2008

One of the suspected candidates for the Conservative candidate for Mayor of London was former Prime Minister John Major until he turned down the offer from Cameron and led to Boris Johnson winning the nomination and later the election, Boris Johnson would go on to gain public awareness as someone different from the political mainstream and would later win the 2012 election against Ken Livingstone and some corners of the Conservative Party want him as leader now.

What I am asking is, what if John Major accepted the offer to run as the Conservative candidate for Mayor of London? Would he have been able to beat Ken Livingstone, how would he have run London and would he have been able to win 2012 against the Labour candidate be it Ken or someone else? Another question from this would be what happens to Boris without the nomination of Mayor, would he be in the Shadow Cabinet, Coalition Cabinet or would that be butterflyed away if the contest is harder or Major loses and Cameron is less complacent, what political position would he be in now?
 
Probably still Ken come 2012, although Sir John might not have actually won in 2008 - it was as much Boris' win as Ken and Gordon's loss.

Sets the stage for Blair in 2016, of course, though that's probably smalltime for him...
 

Thande

Donor
If Major had managed to beat Ken Livingstone (which is not a given, but is possible if the Tories were successfuly in playing it as a contest against Brown rather than Livingstone) then things could get interesting. If Major handles the Olympics preparations (and preferably is re-elected in 2012 so he overseas the Olympics themselves) then it would certainly adjust future historians' perceptions of his career, and perhaps those of the public as well.

This has the potential to have...interesting deep political implications, given that Major is rumoured to be the former PM who's personally closest to the Queen...given this as well as Major just being a former PM, if the Tories/coalition got in in 2010, Major criticising the government would be even more damaging than when Boris does it. Of course, he might choose not to do so in public considering he doesn't have Boris' ambitions.

Also, of course, there's the question of what Boris is doing if he's still in Parliament, and whether he gets a frontbench role if/when the Tories/coalition get in in 2010.

I like Meadow's idea of Blair succeeding Major in 2016 :D As would-be President of the World, he can start small by being mayor of the capital of the world.
 
Speaking as someone who worked on the Boris campaign the fact that he publicly stood up to Cameron and "fought London's corner" was a major plus, if Major wins and rolls over for Cameron between 2010 and 2012 it will really hurt him come election time.
 
This is and was highly unlikely, as JM is too comfortable with his business interests, and I suspect probably is extremely actively hostile to any notion of re-entering any kind of frontline political role. More likely, if you want to abort Borisopolis, would be Steve Norris running for a third time.

However, assuming JM won against Ken, then you are going to get a different mayoralty to Boris' - much more leadership-friendly, much lower-profile. Acting as Cameron's wingman isn't going to be a popular position with the Tories or the public by 2012, and assuming JM runs for a second term - by no means a given - I think he's going down to defeat.

Boris' career would stagnate at Westminster, I suspect. He has the wrong kind of skillzset to succeed in Westminster politics; too impulsive, too much of an individual rather than a team player. He'd perpertually be one big gaffe shy of going straight back to the backbenches, don't pass Go, don't collect 100 pounds; and if that happens for a second time, then there's really no other role for him to play out save the Celebrity Big Brother-style one.
 
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This is and was highly unlikely, as JM is too comfortable with his business interests, and I suspect probably is extremely actively hostile to any notion of re-entering any kind of frontline political role. More likely, if you want to abort Borisopolis, would be Steve Norris running for a third time.

However, assuming JM won against Ken, then you are going to get a different mayoralty to Boris' - much more leadership-friendly, much lower-profile. Acting as Cameron's wingman isn't going to be a popular position with the Tories or the public by 2012, and assuming JM runs for a second term - by no means a given - I think he's going down to defeat.

Boris' career would stagnate at Westminster, I suspect. He has the wrong kind of skillzset to succeed in Westminster politics; too impulsive, too much of an individual rather than a team player. He'd perpertually be one big gaffe shy of going straight back to the backbenches, don't pass Go, don't collect 100 pounds; and if that happens for a second time, then there's really no other role for him to play out save the Celebrity Big Brother-style one.

He could turn out be the Conservatives Lembit Opik... however, I do remember seeing some forum threads from the mid 2000s on a student website I frequent and I was surprised to note Boris was quite famous/popular even then due to his appearances on Have I Got News For You.
 
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