WI: John Major decided to call an election in 1991

In OTL John Major was elected a Tory party leader in 20th November 1990, after that the conservatives got ahead in the polls. On average during this 1 month time period the Conservatives got 46%, Labour 40%, and Lib Dems 10%, however I think in an election Labour and Conservative would get a closer result, however still a conservative victory, maybe a 20 seats or less majority.
 
Probably a slightly bigger majority (40ish perhaps) than occurred in 1992. Kinnock would possibly carry on (given that the defeat would have had less of a shock value to it) and maybe become PM in 1996.
 
In 1991, the recession was still in full flow. By the time a 1991 election would be held, Labour was back into commanding leads in the polls as Major's honeymoon and the gulf effect had ran out; those leads would then dissipate going into 1992 when the recovery started up.

Major made the right decision to let the parliament run out. In 1991, I doubt he would have won a majority.
 
Probably a slightly bigger majority (40ish perhaps) than occurred in 1992. Kinnock would possibly carry on (given that the defeat would have had less of a shock value to it) and maybe become PM in 1996.

After two defeats, I don't think Kinnock would stay on. Smith becomes leader, but if the next general election is held in 1995 or '96 he probably doesn't live to become PM.
 
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